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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

Solstice

A joint album with the Ohio Valley | Great Lakes region has been created. Link is below.

Message added by Solstice

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12z summary:

GFS seemed weird as it had a lead storm that exits the coast off Delmarva and move ENE...but way out in front of the actual s/w which spawns a SLP off the coast of Savannah, GA and heads out to sea
FV3 makes more sense to me and has an Ohio River running that makes it to about Binghamton, NY before it jumps to the coast off Montauk
CMC has a very weak s/w that creates a small eastern lakes cutter...looking at its ensemble, it appear that they do not support this scenario.
Euro....almost seems to support the GFS...:classic_blink::352nmsp:
 

Edited by telejunkie

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29 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

12z summary:

GFS seemed weird as it had a lead storm that exits the coast off Delmarva and move ENE...but way out in front of the actual s/w which spawns a SLP off the coast of Savannah, GA and heads out to sea
FV3 makes more sense to me and has an Ohio River running that makes it to about Binghamton, NY before it jumps to the coast off Montauk
CMC has a very weak s/w that creates a small eastern lakes cutter...looking at its ensemble, it appear that they do not support this scenario.
Euro....almost seems to support the GFS...:classic_blink::352nmsp:
 

I need a cigarette.....(I dont smoke)

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7 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

I need a cigarette.....(I dont smoke)

Some people are going to be on suicide watch here shortly if something doesnt pan out lol

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29 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

Some people are going to be on suicide watch here shortly if something doesnt pan out lol

Why? The 1st half of jan was always supposed to be bad in terms of snow.  So far its following the pattern of winters this decade of being back heavy in terms of snow.  We got our bonus snows in mid nov this year, instead of mid dec.  

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Uh oh. Someone take @PA road DAWG's internet away before he sees this. :classic_laugh:!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh186-252.gif.c00822a33f5cfa62b6771d38bf37f952.gif

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And the train of other storms too!

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22 minutes ago, jrstd1234 said:

And the train of other storms too!

My latest LR Winter post

:classic_ninja:

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42 minutes ago, Solstice said:

Uh oh. Someone take @PA road DAWG's internet away before he sees this. :classic_laugh:!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh186-252.gif.c00822a33f5cfa62b6771d38bf37f952.gif

Lol ... I’m either a  suppressed outcome or heavy rains like this depicts .. Pard won’t bite again.. he knows this will end up another southern VA special lol 😂 but on a positive note.. there’s big storms and plenty of cold running around and its a better shot at a big daddy! I hope everyone gets heavy snow 

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56 minutes ago, Solstice said:

Uh oh. Someone take @PA road DAWG's internet away before he sees this. :classic_laugh:!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh186-252.gif.c00822a33f5cfa62b6771d38bf37f952.gif

LOCK IT IN! 🤗

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9 hours ago, StretchCT said:

EPS mean - anything can happen

us_ecmwf_mean_mslp_f246.thumb.png.a0c8d0b7c3c6baa09d3991f490c5731e.png

From Iowa to Texas to Maine to Bermuda. It's all on the table. Haha. Good 1500+ mile spread. 

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1 hour ago, Solstice said:

Uh oh. Someone take @PA road DAWG's internet away before he sees this. :classic_laugh:!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh186-252.gif.c00822a33f5cfa62b6771d38bf37f952.gif

His overreactions are always entertaining

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1 hour ago, Solstice said:

Uh oh. Someone take @PA road DAWG's internet away before he sees this. :classic_laugh:!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh186-252.gif.c00822a33f5cfa62b6771d38bf37f952.gif

 

Note to self - energy from this run comes ashore on the West Coast on 01/17.

At closer look it appears the energy is also still not out of East Asia. The run did have the storm at the latter end of the timeframe I outlined so the EAR correlation would have to be pushed back slightly. I see it as the 1013 L. 

gfs_pv330K_nhem_8.thumb.png.7252a5470adc5e0689b26f4efea6cae2.png

 

Of course, minor speculation based off an 18z GFS run, of all things. Just trying to see if the energy does anything different than modeled in the Pacific, and we are still about 48 hours away from when I would start to look at the modeling, and 7 days before the energy comes ashore.

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2 hours ago, Goalie24 said:

His overreactions are always entertaining

Just got home and took a look at the 18z runs....

allow me to make my entrance into this forum stone cold style 

BC559DDF-525E-4B37-BB4B-A59C395ACF18.gif

Edited by PA road DAWG
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Nice signal this far out, that's all you can ask for..

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_37 (1).png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_38.png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR
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Last post I had was on the MJO so obviously the models had it way wrong. As we moved into phase 8 in four days instead hanging in 6. Now we are in the cold for a little bit. Here is the current phase.

ensplume_small.gif

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Eps with a STRONG signal 

CF61ABAB-7DEE-43A9-92CB-EED199E436D5.png

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00Z EPS Control:

1768033887_Webp.net-gifmaker(4).gif.2f16ee4966210b40511d5eb16a594b38.gif1637033181_Webp.net-gifmaker(5).thumb.gif.3034855cb6e1c2c33a704a2df4d9ca42.gif

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I think it's really important to consider how the current winter storm will influence this storms' track. How much snow melt occurs next week will be important for this storm since the low track will stay south of existing snow pack. 

With no major warm ups advertised, snow melt should be slow with the January sun angle.

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This storm falls right around the time of the long touted (by some) pattern flip. If this ends up being a a cold rain storm, those proclaiming the upcoming pattern shift are going to have egg on their face. I am not saying anyone in here is calling for the shift, but it's been floating around out there on other sites.

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11 minutes ago, ladymacduff said:

This storm falls right around the time of the long touted (by some) pattern flip. If this ends up being a a cold rain storm, those proclaiming the upcoming pattern shift are going to have egg on their face. I am not saying anyone in here is calling for the shift, but it's been floating around out there on other sites.

Can still be a pattern change and be cold rain- those things aren’t mutually exclusive. The pattern change more or less relates to the path storms take - not if one is getting snow. Certainly looks like a pattern change but to your point we’ve all been burned before

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31 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said:

Can still be a pattern change and be cold rain- those things aren’t mutually exclusive. The pattern change more or less relates to the path storms take - not if one is getting snow. Certainly looks like a pattern change but to your point we’ve all been burned before

It depends on which part of the region they were focusing on for "cold and snow". Some have pushed for I95, while others have said inland.

 

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EPS mean 24 hr snow

image.thumb.png.85fb950bf2c73bd555b576bd5466150e.png

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19 hours ago, Goalie24 said:

Why? The 1st half of jan was always supposed to be bad in terms of snow.  So far its following the pattern of winters this decade of being back heavy in terms of snow.  We got our bonus snows in mid nov this year, instead of mid dec.  

Because some of us haven't had accumulating snow since November lol.

Moving back to Rochester, NY from CT in about a month. Can't wait to get back under that LES!

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50 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

It depends on which part of the region they were focusing on for "cold and snow". Some have pushed for I95, while others have said inland.

 

The weather site I had in mind in particular would cover eastern pa and part of NJ, so from I95 west to about the I81/I80 intersect. 

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