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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

idecline

Jan.14-17 West Coast Storm series/Rain, Snow, High Winds OBS

Staff Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

The storm track is 'online' in the San Francisco Bay Area...Sunday was a wild day as gusts up to 70mph. hit with a very strong storm coming down from the GOA...another storm is poised offshore scheduled to arrive tonight...with rain, winds and heavy snows in the Sierras...rain off and on until perhaps Sunday...

Satellite views and the OPC 48hr: tell the tale...lots of action forming across the North Pacific Ocean...ready to send storm after storm into California...with some southern moisture thrown in with the late week storms...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
404 PM PST Tue Jan 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds and widespread rainfall are forecast to
impact the region through early Wednesday morning as a cold front
advances inland. Dry conditions develop late Wednesday and persist
into Thursday with temperatures near seasonal averages. The
forecast calls for continued unsettled weather conditions for
Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 02:15 PM PST Tuesday...A well defined
mid/upper level low centered about 650 miles west of the
Washington/Oregon boarder will push a frontal boundary across our
region later tonight into early Wednesday morning. Moist, onshore
flow advecting inland ahead of the front has resulted in light
rain over portions of the North Bay and along the coastal ranges
through much of the morning/early afternoon. As the front
approaches the coast through the remainder of the day, look for
rainfall and southerly winds to increase. The most rainfall from
this system will be in the aforementioned regions where 1.00" to
2.25" will be possible. For the lower elevations and urban areas
outside of the North Bay, rainfall amounts will be much less
ranging from around 0.25" to 0.50" with lesser amounts possible in
rain- shadowed areas. Wind speeds will increase to around 20-30
mph with gusts of 40-50 mph are expected near the coast and in the
higher elevations with local gusts up to 60 in the region`s
peaks. In addition to the wind and rain, there will be a slight
chance of thunderstorms tonight along and just behind the cold
frontal passage. However, the potential for thunderstorms remain
low at this time.

Lingering showers are possible through Wednesday morning in wake of
the frontal passage with wind speeds forecast to gradually diminish.
Conditions will dry out late Wednesday and continue through Thursday
as a short-wave ridge develops over the region. Daytime temperatures
changing little, generally in the 50s to lower 60s with overnight
lows in the 40s for most areas.

The weak ridge is forecast to shift well inland by Thursday night
ahead of another mid/upper level trough approaching from the west.
The medium range models do show the southern end of the trough
splitting off into a closed low that will then track toward the
central and/or southern California coast. This pattern does result
in some uncertainty however depending on it`s exact track as it
moves toward the coast. For now, it appears rain will return to the
coast Friday morning and spread inland through Friday night.
Lingering showers will be possible into Saturday ahead of another,
similar mid/upper level system right on the heels of the Friday
system. However, the region may miss out on widespread rainfall if
the system(s) track further offshore and/or to the south. Something
we will need to closely monitor in the coming days.

Unsettled conditions appear possible heading into early next week as
well. Details with respect to winds and rainfall amounts would be
premature at this time given the uncertainty in the forecast
models. Stay tuned...

&&

 

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Edited by idecline
changed dates to reflect new storm systems arrival
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Good to see the West getting wet and white in the mountains. Its been awhile since I have seen a sustained moisture flow out there and it is extremely beneficial right now.

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Might need to extend this thread a bit looking at the latest models...

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Wholeheartedly accepting this rain down in San Diego. Since December, we've had probably 8-10 days of rain and probably upwards of 5" total. Really has made a difference.

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The storms coming into California and the West Coast have not been gully washers, with only moderate amounts of rainfall so far...continued rains are a necessity in our area because of the rainy season which lasts from around October thru March. The Bay Area usually averages about from 3-4 inches of rain each month during the heaviest producing months (usually January and February)...totals are often from 15-25 inches in the valleys and up to 80 inches plus in the Santa Cruz Mountains...this year is catching up to 'normal' quickly...

Wednesday will announce the arrival of a very potent Winter Storm, with periods of heavy rain, high winds, and abundant snow in the Sierras...this looks to be the biggest storm to hit California so far this year...OPC shows a hurricane force low pressure system off the coast as of Wednesday morning...poised to head straight into the area for several days...right now we are under the influence of a large trough of low pressure with showers and embedded storminess moving through tonight and another wave of energy tomorrow...

The RainBow image from GOES WEST satellite shows the low pressure sitting directly over the State...and a large moisture feed is continuing to bring what appears to be 'tropical' moisture up from the Baja California area into the CONUS...this may be an initial 'signal' of possible ENSO influenced storms that may be be to come...right now the what looks to be a 'major' storm is tracking directly into our zone and should bring bountiful precipitation amounts into the West Coast this week...just take a look at the OPC maps and the QPF's !

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Blizzard Warnings up in the Sierras, up to 6 feet over the peaks!!!!

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1052 AM PST Wed Jan 16 2019

...Heavy mountain snows to impact the area through Friday morning
with Blizzard Conditions at times...

.A pair of weather systems will move through the region spreading
heavy snowfall accumulations to the Sierra Nevada and Southern
Cascades. The system arriving today will produce several feet of
snowfall accompanied by high winds leading to blizzard/whiteout
conditions across the higher mountain passes. Travel will be
dangerous to nearly impossible, and is strongly discouraged.

CAZ068-069-170500-
/O.CON.KSTO.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190118T1200Z/
/O.CON.KSTO.BZ.W.0001.190117T0000Z-190117T2000Z/
Western Plumas County/Lassen Park-
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-
1052 AM PST Wed Jan 16 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
ABOVE 5500 FEET...
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON PST THURSDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow above 5500 feet. Blizzard conditions
  expected above 6500 feet later today through Thursday morning.
  Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Damage to trees
  and power lines is possible. Snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4
  feet likely above 5500 feet with local accumulations up to 6
  feet over the peaks.

* WHERE...Lassen Volcanic National Park and higher elevations of
  Western Plumas County.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 4 AM Friday. For
  the Blizzard Warning, 4 PM today to noon Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph or higher
  will cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant
  drifting of the snow is likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means there will be snow covered
roads and limited visibilities. Travel is not recommended while
the warning is in effect. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you.  If you get
stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
349 AM PST Wed Jan 16 2019

CAZ073-170000-
/O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190118T1200Z/
/O.CON.KREV.BZ.W.0001.190117T0600Z-190117T1500Z/
Mono County-
Including the cities of Bridgeport, Coleville, and Mammoth Lakes
349 AM PST Wed Jan 16 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET...

* CHANGES...No changes.

* WHAT...Heavy snowfall accumulations of 2 to 5 feet west of
  Highway 395 above 7000 feet with blizzard conditions forecast,
  especially tonight into Thursday morning. 10 to 20 inches
  elsewhere above 7000 feet. Between 6000 and 7000 feet, up to 6
  inches is forecast. Winds gusting as high as 125 mph for ridge
  tops.

* WHERE...Mono County.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 4 AM PST Friday.
  For the Blizzard Warning, from 10 PM Wednesday to 7 AM PST
  Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A lull in snowfall is expected this morning
  through much of the afternoon before heavy snow returns. Travel
  could be very difficult to impossible with periods of very low
  visibility and road closures possible. Winds along with heavy,
  wet snow could cause areas of tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid travel if possible, you could be stuck in your vehicle for
many hours. If you must travel, prepare for long delays and carry
an emergency kit with extra food, water and clothing. If you stay
home, have a backup plan in case of power outages.

This is a life threatening situation, especially in the higher
elevations. Road crews and first responders may not be able to
rescue you. Stay indoors until the snow and wind subside. Even a
short walk could be deadly if you become disoriented.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
349 AM PST Wed Jan 16 2019

CAZ072-NVZ002-170000-
/O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190118T1200Z/
/O.CON.KREV.BZ.W.0001.190117T0300Z-190117T1500Z/
Greater Lake Tahoe Area-
Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline,
and Incline Village
349 AM PST Wed Jan 16 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET...

* CHANGES...Increased snowfall around Lake Tahoe.

* WHAT...Heavy snow accumulations of 2 to 5 feet above 7000 feet
  with blizzard conditions expected, especially tonight into
  Thursday morning. Between 6000 and 7000 feet, 1 to 2 feet is
  expected through Thursday night. Winds gusting 90 mph to as
  high as 130 mph for ridge tops.

* WHERE...Greater Lake Tahoe Area.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 4 AM PST Friday.
  For the Blizzard Warning, from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM PST
  Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible with periods of road closures expected. Winds along
  with heavy, wet snow could cause areas of tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid travel if possible, you could be stuck in your vehicle for
many hours. If you must travel, prepare for long delays and carry
an emergency kit with extra food, water and clothing. If you stay
home, have a backup plan in case of power outages.

This is a life threatening situation, especially in the higher
elevations. Road crews and first responders may not be able to
rescue you. Stay indoors until the snow and wind subside. Even a
short walk could be deadly if you become disoriented.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

 

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My totals for the last few days:

1/14: 0.58"

1/15: 0.56"

1/16: 0.34" (as of 4:53 PM)

This rainy season has been great so far. Anything is better than the dismal 2017-18 rainy season last year, where the rainy season basically consisted of a solitary storm in mid-January and a few weak overnight storms in March, and that was it.

We're already above average so far this year. A healthy amount of activity. Green hills. :)

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Update on storm activity this evening:

E1hEP4s.gif

And for anyone who remembers, yes I'm still making these - daily temperature max/min and precipitation graphs using the data from my personal weather station, so far this 2018-19 water year (not including today):

ZiRlceJ.png

Currently standing with a season total of 5.68". Already more than the entire 2017-18 water year (in which a measly 4.63" fell at my station).

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Blizzard and Avalanche Warnings, over 10 FEET of snow in the high peaks...Just insane and great for the snow pack.

WeatherStory1.png

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
315 AM PST Thu Jan 17 2019

CAZ068-069-172000-
/O.CON.KSTO.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190117T2000Z/
/O.CON.KSTO.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190118T1200Z/
Western Plumas County/Lassen Park-
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-
315 AM PST Thu Jan 17 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY ABOVE
6500 FEET...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and strong winds occurring. Blizzard
  conditions occurring above 6500 feet. Travel will be very
  difficult to impossible. Road closures possible. Above 4500
  feet, additional snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches. Above
  6500 feet, additional snow accumulations of 2 to 3 feet are
  expected.

* WHERE...Lassen Volcanic National Park and higher elevations of
  Western Plumas County, the West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada
  including Interstate 80 over Donner Pass, Highway 50 over Echo
  Summit and Highway 88 over Carson Pass.

* WHEN...For the Blizzard Warning, until noon today. For the
  Winter Storm Warning, until 4 AM Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph will cause
  whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant drifting of
  the snow is likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means there will be snow covered
roads and limited visibilities. Travel is not recommended while
the warning is in effect. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you.  If you get
stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

 

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The week is in. These storms underperformed in my area, but I'm satisfied we got a decent amount of rain at all.

At my station:

1/12: 0.53"

1/13: 0.01"

1/14: 0.58"

1/15: 0.56"

1/16: 0.38"

1/17: 0.37"

1/18: 0.01"

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