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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

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PREFACE

Getting past the January 20th time frame and storm,  there are indications that a cold air invasion is becoming more and more apparent for the eastern CONUS as we fast approach the last 10 days of January. With that in mind and considering that the southern stream over the CONUS should continue to be actively keeping the GOMEX rich moisture content available to be lifted and gathered for storm formation, I see a rather good opportunity for a storm to impact the region, which would include the Mid-Atlantic and even New England depending on how amplified the storm becomes. For a more amplified storm to come to be, we need a solid set of teleconnections (AO, EPO, NAO, and PNA) and the development of Greenland into North Pole blocking, or at least a Greenland block. Given the actual data available from the EPS 46 days and EPS products, the January 24-26 time frame, would benefit from a mostly solid teleconnection package and perhaps the advent of a Greenland into North Pole blocking. The blocking though, may not be totally established yet during this time frame, but by the end of January, it could be the big boss in town.

Long range operational model signals do exist for a storm in this time frame, but as I usually do, I try to avoid using the operational model storm signals for possibilities that are in the 12 to 16 days in the future time frame for the thread openers, instead relying on the ensemble guidance signals or other longer range weekly or monthly models. Given that some operational models present "forecasts" or outputs for 15 to 16 days out, I use that range as my limit to consider opening a storm thread, to avoid turning the thread into a long-range pattern discussion thread.

 

Overall Set up

Continued southern stream activity with ample GOMEX moisture to be tapped and lifted along with deeper cold air presence perhaps with a high-pressure presence and CAD development. Teleconnection robust package, possible initial developing stages of Greenland blocking, aiding in a more teemed northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Track-wise, we could have one of the 3 most traditional tracks, the western/central PA cutter track, the northern Mid-Atlantic tucked to the coast track and the beloved benchmark track. Which track would be the verified one come the time frame, would be determined in good part by the depth of the cold air in place, blocking high-pressure placement, possible phasing time, if one ever comes to be, and interestingly enough, whatever influence the initial development stages of the Greenland block would have on this time frame, if any at all. Most of these mentioned can certainly be a result of how strong the teleconnection package for this time frame is. 

Below, an image showing the 3 possible storm tracks can be seen.

Storm Track Visual Aid

440346894_Jan24-262019StormPossibility.thumb.png.90c01e11adc5f79192ba953382579ef8.png

 

Before we move on the next page, on which you will be able to see the forecasted EPS North American and Northern Hemisphere setup, the EPS 46-days teleconnections and EPS precipitation output for this time frame, I would like to finish this page, with a couple of EPS control runs images and an very interesting, perhaps surprising to some, seasonal CFS MSLP output for this time frame.

CFS Surface Pressure

1420600026_Webp.net-gifmaker(1).gif.db0b53b03f8a31d4075472af91907b4e.gif

It´s very intriguing or interesting to me at least, that very robust storm would be shown on the CFS at such a time range, near the time frame that this thread discusses. It´s a neat piece of information or perhaps, let´s say evidence.

 

Jan 9th, 2019 12Z EPS CONTROL (tucked and benchmark track hybrid)

448738469_eps12z348.thumb.png.2653aac4eed4931723c32f99effa8502.png480055782_epscontrol354.thumb.png.c16514de10b3f9172289fdccce3dc76d.png1494241503_eps360control.thumb.png.7ab8be81dae86402eadb2ceed73c25d0.png

 

Jan 10th, 2019 00Z EPS CONTROL (western PA track hybrid)

12372740_eps_ptype_c01_conus_33600z.thumb.png.1bc18f376d501a4c123191001feabeaa.png486332571_eps_ptype_c01_conus_34800z.thumb.png.a5bb8911154a53f7f7b8cfba1b35dc6e.png1584344833_eps_ptype_c01_conus_36000z.thumb.png.69d8adf55856f0f119932dd6c1d4a60a.png

 

On the next page, you will see additional data related to this time frame.

 


 

To start off this page, please see the Northern Hemisphere and North America set up for the time frame in discussion.

January 7th, 2019, 00Z EPS 46 day

Northern Hemisphere                                                                 North America 

868104966_Webp.net-gifmaker(3).gif.29c74d38eb0ebb071323cbdaa407fae4.gif320794241_Webp.net-gifmaker(2).thumb.gif.1a989d53b7f4c35db9605749602ca473.gif

There´s no way to look at this setup and be indifferent to it. That argues for a real winter over the eastern CONUS. We can see the lower heights over northern Canada connect to the lower heights over the SE CONUS, setting up a deep negatively oriented trough over eastern North America, and the developing Greenland block. All that if were to verify, would translate to a much colder eastern United States and a much more promising storm track from the southeast to northeast CONUS with the less progressive component courtesy of the Greenland blocking.

As we continue,  you can see below the EPS 24-hour precipitation for the time frame in discussion.

Jan 9th, 2019 12Z                                                            Jan 10th, 2019 00Z 

1931283227_Jan0912ZEPS.gif.9e9275a12b26e5d7919feb78c6a57ab4.gifWebp.net-gifmaker.thumb.gif.3d97972d6aac2ece87073194dfc49e9f.gif

 

And now the EPS 46-days teleconnections (AO, EPO, NAO, and PNA)

AO                                                                                 EPO

599842893_ao46days.png.feb8b3a61fcba11228797da161b31841.png64443320_epo46days.png.d6ee796151d1bb275085b8b0498e9420.png

There is not much to argue concerning this EPS AO/EPO combo as it relates to the time frame. Both teleconnections are in their negative state, which is primordial for the availability of a strong and more sustained cold air presence over the eastern CONUS. The -AO is around -1.5 to -1.7 while the -EPO is around -1.3 to -1.5, which is the most negative it has been in recent weeks. We like this.

 

NAO                                                                                     PNA

1267990018_nao46dyas.png.77a1337b1480c23f0b8b5362a17af8d5.png1416132449_pna46days.png.60b5d7a7cd64cd728d782570d07be5fb.png

 

This combo, the way I interpret it, looks very promising and supportive of a storm track that could deliver the wintry goods and be more amplified, and perhaps not so quick to exit the region. The -NAO can lay a hand in allowing blocking conditions over the eastern areas of North America while the +PNA would argue for a ridge over the western US and depending on how it interacts with the -EPO aforementioned, a deeper colder trough could pass through the eastern US. Notice that the -PNA is in positive to negative trajectory during the time frame in discussion, and flips to negative sometime around January 28th. That changing magnitude could play a positive role in the flow pattern.

Given the data, this time frame looks like it has more robust aspects to it to allow the region to at least have a better shot at a wintry storm that may impact areas that are snowless since November,

What do you guys think? Does this one have a standing chance? Or is it another dream only reality?

Later!


 

UPDATES: 

Jan 11th, 2018

January 10th, 2019, 00Z EPS 46 day

Northern Hemisphere                                                                North America 

501309055_Webp.net-gifmaker(6).gif.a2d736c9089fd73d585b8c1c58ff50a6.gif1564199012_Webp.net-gifmaker(7).gif.0966176bac1ce7debbebf63310e4211f.gif

 

January 10th, 2019, 00Z EPS 46 day

AO                                                                                                           EPO

a0 46.pngepo 49.png

This combo has suffered a blow and is weaker now as compared to the January 7th run. The -AO continues pretty solid. However, the EPO has changed to neutral to slightly negative. Before on the 7th of January, it was decently in a negative state.

 

NAO                                                                                    PNA

nao 46.pngpna 46.png

This combo also has suffered from changes. Although the NAO continues to be negative, it is not as negative as compared to the output from the January 7th run. As for the PNA, it went from a more solid positive state to a slightly positive state, basically neutral and flat.

We will see how this evolves on the next update scheduled to occur on January 14th, 2019.

 

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Please keep that Western PA track away from this storm.  The tucked hybrid looked nice.

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Hey, a few days ago in the 13-15 storm thread I called the "storm after storm" that was being shown and was scoffed at.  Now they're threads.  :hmm:

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18Z GFS:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh348-384.gif.a64c3624d64e7b50d89edc6b27072053.gif

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Looking at the timeframe and just very rough (and highly questionable) calculations the energy would be around Russia, just past the Scandinavian countries at this point.

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8 minutes ago, Solstice said:

Looking at the timeframe and just very rough (and highly questionable) calculations the energy would be around Russia, just past the Scandinavian countries at this point.

Wow! Impressive! I liked it!

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18Z FV3:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh366-384.gif.57898d35836b26866cb083f1e2d4541f.gif

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That would be one hell of a SE storm :classic_ohmy:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh318-354.gif.577a4b838cff66e5ec778081b9b5e11f.gif

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2 hours ago, PA Snow 84 said:

That would be one hell of a SE storm :classic_ohmy:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh318-354.gif.577a4b838cff66e5ec778081b9b5e11f.gif

F8CK YEAH!!  LOCK IT IN BABY!!!! :6:

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2 hours ago, Kohler7 said:

F8CK YEAH!!  LOCK IT IN BABY!!!! :6:

We will be heading south with snow removal equipment lol

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7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Wow talk about cold coming!

image.png.bd8244c645988c18e04b1bbb9b7866a2.png

Talk about an active pattern full of delicious fantasy goodness 🤪🤪

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3 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

image.png.bd8244c645988c18e04b1bbb9b7866a2.png

Talk about an active pattern full of delicious fantasy goodness 🤪🤪

Tell me about it!

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh306-378.gif.1716fc68f6ded155d40855ac9968bb23.gif

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If - then

gfs_z500_vort_namer_40.png.22ff9a191d4b3dc11a65aba1f3c10b7b.png

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gfs_z500_vort_us_49.png.4e8fbedbcebad7500fd11b6ab1f9e8af.png:very-shocked-smiley-emoticon:

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Does anyone have the snowmap accumulation for these images? It would be greatly appreciated!

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Right on it’s heels

D32CB644-D0BF-4683-B223-D90E705C0FD9.png

302422F9-B13A-45B6-A885-F21F3141F9FF.png

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:very-shocked-smiley-emoticon:

gfs_z500_vort_us_42.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_44.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

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3 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Right on it’s heels

D32CB644-D0BF-4683-B223-D90E705C0FD9.png

302422F9-B13A-45B6-A885-F21F3141F9FF.png

Sweet baby Jesus!

 

Is it common for models to show this many monsters in a row?  Seems like the last couple days they’ve been bury the region.  That scares me, that it’ll stop soon, never to return.

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WOW!

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_44.png.1621b96d3c1d25b7d87c2b604fc28be0.png

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That would, verbatim, be nearly double digits - min for almost all of PA :classic_ohmy:

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Right on it’s heels

D32CB644-D0BF-4683-B223-D90E705C0FD9.png

302422F9-B13A-45B6-A885-F21F3141F9FF.png

My reaction seeing that last frame

4C22516C-E809-4FC6-8C27-4F5CF0BB7B83.gif

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This winter is going to be stupid in a good way!!  Well for snow lovers.

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