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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

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17 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

Would you mind explaining that more brother? 

Due to the shutdown,I can't use ESRL to plot, but essentially the Walker circulation (early trade winds with westerly upper level winds) hasn't really flipped.  The SOI (measure of pressure difference between Darwin, AUS and Tahiti was more reflexive of la nina conditions for December, and have been volatile during January,  indicating the warm SSTs haven't been able to "lock into" an el Niňo.  I don't disagree that we have seen el Niňo conditions at times, but there hasn't been a consistent positive feedback to retain the warmth. It's relying on Kevin waves that were initiated months ago. 

sstaanim.gif.9ccd4203e3877e56c0cf1bdc695b0d86.gif

Ssts are only part if the equation

From Australia's bureau of meteorology

Quote

While waters at and beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific have been warmer than average since mid-2018, atmospheric indicators of ENSO such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have not responded and have mostly remained neutral. For an El Niño to become established, the atmosphere needs to reinforce and respond to the warmer waters at the ocean's surface. This reinforcement is what allows the widespread global effects on weather and climate to occur.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml#tabs=Overview

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Is that a menacing beast coming??

Oh Gosh...

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gfs_z500_vort_namer_40.png.b102ebc268c0d5aa5a78f3edeb443187.png 

1052?? 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png.25cc2e3de797beba623ca4514b98c907.png

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Capture.thumb.PNG.a92df2c7749c6f8db2127e5345cdd26f.PNG

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Last frame of the Euro - low diving into the Midwest, additional low developing off the South Carolina coast, high parked off of Maine and more cold air diving across the Dakotas :classic_rolleyes:

One can only imagine what might be produced in the following frames...

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

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Just now, AceGikmo said:

Last frame of the Euro - low diving into the Midwest, additional low developing off the South Carolina coast, high parked off of Maine and more cold air diving across the Dakotas :classic_rolleyes:

One can only imagine what might be produced in the following frames...

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

Oh boy I can give a few examples... but I wont

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Oh boy... 

Insanity.

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If any of these 3 threats pan out I'll be a happy guy with a snow pusher.  

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Also have some general signaling off the coast for the time frame. Just another piece in its favor.

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_51.png.9846661147bc2aaffbcde250c08a1963.png

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The graders and snowblowers may be getting a lot more on road time than past years.......yikes

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3 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

And..we got nothin GFS doing gfs things I suppose

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png.beb6a258e2a2414fba13ed979b6785d2.png

:hmm:

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5 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png.beb6a258e2a2414fba13ed979b6785d2.png

:hmm:

It seems that I was paying too much attention to the 25th that I spoke too soon my apologize 

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That was pretty impressive how the storm was gathering over western Texas and how extendsive it was.

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FVXXX looks ominous as well. 

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V-XXX would be complete and unmitigated disaster of epic proportion. 1996 all over again. We'd better PRAY that solution is garbage - seriously. 

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Ahhh yes.. 1996 ..... living in cape May at the time and like tonight’s eagles game started out great we had about 8” then it went south quickly to ice then rain but philly breaks all time record of 3 feet and I move to sepa a month later after heavy rain melted it but I got mine in 2010 .... 28” and 3 days later 24”  this pattern sounds eerily similar .. cautiously optimistic for a repeat here 

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1 hour ago, UTSwiinii said:

V-XXX would be complete and unmitigated disaster of epic proportion. 1996 all over again. We'd better PRAY that solution is garbage - seriously. 

What is the FV-XXX/V-XXX. I thought it was short hand for the FV3-GFS but I'm seeing nothing like what is being described on there

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But wait here comes another? I'll leave it at that.

image.png.8c2f070f5c6ae3046aa80cacc34e9187.png

Edited by shaulov4

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7 hours ago, AceGikmo said:

What is the FV-XXX/V-XXX. I thought it was short hand for the FV3-GFS but I'm seeing nothing like what is being described on there

It is a play on FV-3. It can, at times, have output that resembles weather porn - so I've dubbed it the FV-XXX for that reason. 

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