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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

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9 minutes ago, Weather Badger said:

Hi UT, was a lurker for many, many years on the Accu Forums and have always looked forward to your analysis and have tried to learn from what you've been preaching.  Finally decided to sign up and become a member here hoping to interact with some of the knowledgeable members here and learn more.  So I have a question about the northern stream feature and the lack of cold air along eastern coastal plain.  Is this feature preventing colder air from Canada making it's way down to East Coast?  Wouldn't it be better to have a HP where the LP is located?  Looking forward to your response.

It is not the one that brings the front, necessarily, but any flat (west to east) vort crossing Canada will shut off the truly arctic air as it moves through. That leaves the coastal plain exposed to Atlantic side influence, but inland and elevation have climatology and geography to conspire to mute the warmth coming in with the southern parcels.

 

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57 minutes ago, Goalie24 said:

Idk if anyone outside of Maine gets any wintry precip of this.

Looks like a cutter..... maybe that's what we need for better snow shots along the east coast

It's not a cutter, however it does seem like this storm might be the one that sets up a colder and perhaps snowier storm a couple days later.

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7 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

It's not a cutter, however it does seem like this storm might be the one that sets up a colder and perhaps snowier storm a couple days later.

Good look for now

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For those who are drowning in their tears, the potential for some good snows the next couple weeks is extraordinary. There are a lot pieces to play with and I think we will hit a couple of them. Someone once told me "if the models are not showing a big storm in a good pattern get your shovel ready in a couple days, sometimes the big storms are so close that it might too late to track it" 😉

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27 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

It is not the one that brings the front, necessarily, but any flat (west to east) vort crossing Canada will shut off the truly arctic air as it moves through. That leaves the coastal plain exposed to Atlantic side influence, but inland and elevation have climatology and geography to conspire to mute the warmth coming in with the southern parcels.

 

Climatology for this scenario being ice and sleet though. Also kind of becoming a thing here lately. Still time to see some changes though. 🤞

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Spoiler

gfs_z500_vort_namer_15_LI.jpg.33474129818db932b4e81856b38a17df.jpg 

Looks like this continually just misses a phase because the northern stream can't quite catch up. I'm guessing that is why this could only be a thread the needle type of situation in order for many to receive measurable snow. With what is on the table, any direction as to what factors would allow/prevent this storm to "thread the needle" so to speak? 

Edited by AceGikmo

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12z GEFS looks good to me with a ~1013 mb at hour 78 near New Orleans, LA to ~993 mb at hour 102 near Providence, RI

1-20 12z GEFS GIF.gif

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1 hour ago, 1816 said:

Climatology for this scenario being ice and sleet though. Also kind of becoming a thing here lately. Still time to see some changes though. 🤞

Yeah - but I don't bother with precip types, I simply discuss the storm regardless of how much snow, or rain, or winds, or flooding there may be. 

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1/19/-1/20 Redux

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19 minutes ago, LUCC said:

1/19/-1/20 Redux

Yup

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Looks like the 12z on the models aren’t showing the same outcome att from what I saw. Does look like there is no cold air for the system

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