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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Astronomer

January 22-23 Winter Storm Potential

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12Z GFS shows a rain event all the way north of the MI Thumb.  Not believing that scenario.  

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41 minutes ago, ncinthenext3 said:

This thread's gonna go turbo as soon as Saturday's storm track gets nailed down.  Combined with Saturday, this system should make up our seasonal snow deficit in about a 3-4 day period.  Winter's here.

Not if you believe the 12Z GFS. Yikes.

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1 hour ago, MotownWX said:

12Z GFS shows a rain event all the way north of the MI Thumb.  Not believing that scenario.  

Yeah, I don't buy that either, especially with all of this talk of a cold pattern through the end of the month. 

We're going to mostly miss out on the snow up here for the Saturday event so we have a lot of making up to do. 

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image.png.875a110de441ada2d0cb20f6e0606d1f.png

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Even further west on 18z! Thing is gonna end up in North Dakota by next week.

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2 minutes ago, easton229 said:

Even further west on 18z! Thing is gonna end up in North Dakota by next week.

It's not really further west.

I don't buy this current scenario. I don't want to, either. It doesn't make much sense. 

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Bit stronger this run. 

I'll be more interested in the runs after the weekend storm exits - I'd imagine that is playing a pretty big role in modeling this right now. 

Regardless I'll be glued to every run since this is the closest thing we've had to a snowstorm this year haha

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9 minutes ago, chicagosnow said:

It's not really further west.

I don't buy this current scenario. I don't want to, either. It doesn't make much sense. 

As much as I do not want to see it happen, I think every single model has trended in that direction over the last few days. Of course, there is a lot to be resolved between now and then, and I really hope things trend back east. Otherwise the storm this weekend will be in vain.

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1 minute ago, weather_boy2010 said:

As much as I do not want to see it happen, I think every single model has trended in that direction over the last few days. Of course, there is a lot to be resolved between now and then, and I really hope things trend back east. Otherwise the storm this weekend will be in vain.

18z GFS yesterday slammed us, I think. I mean, I can see it happening because that's what happens to me. My biggest question is whether temps can get as high as it depicts that quickly with snowcover. It would have to be a pretty strong system. It's certainly not impossible, but I'll wait until Sunday before I throw in the towel. 

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Admittedly, this gives me some relief:

eps_slp_lows_east_27.thumb.png.fc1db1ea65194a7b1d61fb3df464a6aa.png

There doesn't appear to be agreement on much of anything, which means this further west trend is far from certain.

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3 minutes ago, chicagosnow said:

18z GFS yesterday slammed us, I think. I mean, I can see it happening because that's what happens to me. My biggest question is whether temps can get as high as it depicts that quickly with snowcover. It would have to be a pretty strong system. It's certainly not impossible, but I'll wait until Sunday before I throw in the towel. 

Agreed. We've seen that many times before, but I really don't want to see it happen.

Give it until Monday before throwing in the towel though, the energy won't be completely ashore until Monday morning. Not to mention, the details haven't even been worked out with the current storm yet. PLENTY of time for things to change!

Edited by weather_boy2010

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Much faster and weaker system on the 0z GFS. Track over the plains is quite different as well though it still generally tracks over Chicago. Temps rise less and overall lower qpf. I'm gonna just go out on a limb and say we have a long way to go with this one. 

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10 minutes ago, chicagosnow said:

Much faster and weaker system on the 0z GFS. Track over the plains is quite different as well though it still generally tracks over Chicago. Temps rise less and overall lower qpf. I'm gonna just go out on a limb and say we have a long way to go with this one. 

Me hopes so. What looked like a good, snowy pattern just a few days ago is falling apart really quickly it seems.

On that note, a stiff adult beverage sounds good. I shall see you all tomorrow morning!

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The show stealer here will be the secondary that forms along this thread now FROPA. unfortunately unless we believe the CMC it looks to be too far east

download (3).png

Prewave

download (4).png

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46 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

The show stealer here will be the secondary that forms along this thread now FROPA. unfortunately unless we believe the CMC it looks to be too far east

download (3).png

Prewave

download (4).png

That's not too Far East lol... 

IMG_8393.JPG

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True to the lower lakes form, someone will get a foot tomorrow followed by 2 inches of rain next weekend. Gotta move to the mointains. Haha. 😔😂

Forgot. Then a flash freeze of the entire resulting slop. 

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DTX has already mentioned that this could turn from snow to rain for portions of the area due to warm air flowing in. Then of course, bitter cold will follow the storm. I’m ready for spring 🙄

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26 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

If this is still shown today, I'll split a thread for the secondary 

Yeah, probably a good idea.

My guess is it will. That secondary is wayyyy behind on the GFS this morning. 

1 minute ago, easton229 said:

DTX has already mentioned that this could turn from snow to rain for portions of the area due to warm air flowing in. Then of course, bitter cold will follow the storm. I’m ready for spring 🙄

My levels of frustration have pretty much peaked. At this point I was just happy for a mild winter and lower heating bills. Now it's looking like bitter cold and no snow, a double whammy haha. 

GRR doesn't have much to say either other than a chance or rain and snow.

Quote

Another system arrives next Tuesday. It`s progd to go a bit farther north than today`s system, and so we may see some rain mix in with the snow Tuesday afternoon.

 

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Another trash GFS run. Will definitely have to wait to see what the models show after the current storm, but this has been consistently showing up as a GLC.

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10 minutes ago, easton229 said:

Another trash GFS run. Will definitely have to wait to see what the models show after the current storm, but this has been consistently showing up as a GLC.

Will follow the Euro at this range compared to the GFS. Will see its 12Z run but GLC looks on the table.

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