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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

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Starting this one to break it out from the bigger impact system to come on its heels. 

6z 011319 MREF

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011319 00z GFS Op

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png.2eefdcf29824d9fdf91ba1235c9def00.png

Same date and time Euro Op

Capture.thumb.PNG.498d1e65e3abc7e134470820e777cfef.PNG

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WPC Snow risk map

prbww_sn25_DAY6.gif.12bb8f8b8158e83a114e82b49a0f8b92.gif

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WPC disco is so non descript - kind of covers both phases

Quote

Downstream, glancing blows of cold Canadian air past midweek over the central to eastern U.S. northern tier become more significant/longer lasting and increasingly southward surging later week into next weekend with northern stream amplification. This occurs as ample southern stream energies eject underneath from the western U.S. to spawn s-central to eastern U.S. cyclogenesis/frontogenesis. Deepening moisture influx into the system and overrunning the cold airmass spilled overtop would combine with dynamics to fuel an increasingly robust moisture/precipitation shield that offers a significant threat for heavy warm sector rains/convection and a widespread swath of heavy snow/ice to the north.

 

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May as well add the CMC - though for what reason, I'm not really sure

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png.76ed06944a8ddf4b8332326fd41a8961.pnggem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png.ffaa93af2b7f554382a1c8a41c0e8a7d.png

 

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It will be interesting to see where this low placement will be as I believe it will be an indicator of how far north the next one can go, just something to keep in mind I suppose. 

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The ridge filling in behind this shortwave's cold front will be critical for the bigger storm. My fingers are crossed that Morgantown ends up north of the frontal position :winter_smilies_0012:

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Who likes Ike?

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png.f7e40c94e3a3c02b22efb79fb7310799.png

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21 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Who likes Ike?

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png.f7e40c94e3a3c02b22efb79fb7310799.png

Waste of technology 

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There comes the pre-game fun!

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png.5961ce62fc449b2c2f808bc7094cb431.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_20.png.68d1f3a1a482cfb12bd83737ac46dde6.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png.ede503f952225c4006625171dc571c9a.png

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More snow for DC!  :winter_smilies_0012:

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@UTSwiinii, this thread could become more significant then many of us think

:ColdBreath:

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png.e9c93ca48a18b4f5bdd8a4952df58a3c.png

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12 Z Euro for 1st storm on the 18th. Not as bullish as 0Z...FWIW.

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_pennsylvania_22.png

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Those big numbers south of D.C. Are more from today than the end of week storm correct?

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30 minutes ago, WeatherDCA said:

Those big numbers south of D.C. Are more from today than the end of week storm correct?

Well - since it says "initialized" at 12z - that would be correct.  

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AAA.png.f24ac0fbab2cf6fe79287882628489c1.png BBB.png.bc1e8f22ea4d5f6831e1e8845da57763.png CCC.png.8eaa8f79baee05f7f54128f6c6ec129a.png

Watchthink Phased Vortex? :classic_wink:

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Table setter if ever I saw one

DDD.thumb.png.914471bb18fa7d8b6c758e37716e4515.png

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27 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

AAA.png.f24ac0fbab2cf6fe79287882628489c1.png BBB.png.bc1e8f22ea4d5f6831e1e8845da57763.png CCC.png.8eaa8f79baee05f7f54128f6c6ec129a.png

Watchthink Phased Vortex? :classic_wink:

Keep an eye...

Just do it!

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Guys don't waste you time here, check out the other thread...its banana's (Joking) 

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5 minutes ago, KENNYP2339 said:

Guys don't waste you time here, check out the other thread...its banana's (Joking) 

It is the hors d'oevre to the main meal. 

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Table setter looking good on the FVXXX run. 

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Hello fellars. This one not grabbing the headlines, but could still be fun. 

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