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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

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Disorganized on the 18z Trash Can, does that mean it will actually be the opposite?

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icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png.d8146b7a7ddb25a6ec7b026bf6a78421.png

 

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1 hour ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Hello fellars. This one not grabbing the headlines, but could still be fun. 

If this one is more robust it than can bring colder air in and thus we have our next storm verbatim 18z GFS. So yes it's a one two punch in this case.

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I’m hoping for a nice 3-5” out of this for my neck of the woods. Following some of the models it started off as an over running event, but it looks like it stacks on itself and spins a low off the va coast then up and out, hopefully we get some spin out of this. 

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Just now, KENNYP2339 said:

I’m hoping for a nice 3-5” out of this for my neck of the woods. Following some of the models it started off as an over running event, but it looks like it stacks on itself and spins a low off the va coast then up and out, hopefully we get some spin out of this. 

3-5 really? hmm I look into it more but kinda of sounds like wishful thinking....

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wow starting to look like a legit event

image.png.0ae7ac08d66614a6d80da92517626dbb.png

Edited by shaulov4

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4 hours ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Hello fellars. This one not grabbing the headlines, but could still be fun. 

Yeah well I have a foot of snow outside and it didn't grab headlines till last night.. so.. :hmm:

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Meanwhile, downstream surges of frigid Canadian air into the central U.S. become more significant Thursday through the weekend as the northern stream amplifies around a wobbling Hudson Bay upper vortex. Leading lows Thu-Fri spread some modest snows over the northeast quarter of the nation. Upstream, a more robust system ejecting from the West organizes over the southern Plains with increased Gulf of Mexico moisture and lift through Arkansas Saturday as an arctic front to the north pushes through the Northeast. As precipitation overruns the cold airmass to the north, heavy snow will spread out of the central Plains through the Midwest/Ohio Valley then Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as potentially heavy warm-sector rains/convection move through the South. There is an increasing signal in guidance/improved model and ensemble clustering for a significant and widespread heavy snow/ice event to the north of a subsequent main low track through the East then up off the coast. Please consult WPC Day 4-7 QPF and Winter Weather Outlook for a probabilistic assessment of the coast to coast winter weather threat. Schichtel

 

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png.658f88487df92449e218f89fbd13d66e.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png.02d42307fc990dcc58d47a1a454f6a1b.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png.0813f5e7f87868e2a657805ce6794071.png

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This one here.

If you really want snow from the Jan 20th storm, put some effort in analyzing this one.      

Perhaps this way, this one ends up tracking farther south, and then the one on the 20th actually takes a track that would be mostly a snow event for the I-95 corridor and takes out the threat of a nasty ice storm or rain.

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4 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

This one here.

If you really want snow from the Jan 20th storm, put some effort in analyzing this one.      

Perhaps this way, this one ends up tracking farther south, and then the one on the 20th actually takes a track that would be mostly a snow event for the I-95 corridor and takes out the threat of a nasty ice storm or rain.

untitled.png.e3f2b2a1df96afd3364f64aabda684f9.png

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12 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

untitled.png.e3f2b2a1df96afd3364f64aabda684f9.png

Yea, @UTSwiinii .

Important thinking from WPC.

And as for the 06Z FV3, again, this storms center tracks over NYC, and the storm on the 20th just south of NYC.

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No love for this thread since the split. Currently 5th on the board until this posting. 

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just watching and praying its not rain for ct

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Keep an eye on the NAM's early frames. At 06z the GFS is dug in a bit further than the NAM with the energy. I don't want to spend too much time analyzing this just yet but it's something to keep an eye on as the 12z suite starts to drop as those early frames will have a lot to do with what happens later on. 

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42 minutes ago, Miller A said:

No love for this thread since the split. Currently 5th on the board until this posting. 

And I am not sure why since what happens with this storm impacts the potential "big one" on the weekend.

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47 minutes ago, Miller A said:

No love for this thread since the split. Currently 5th on the board until this posting. 

I'm sure it'll pick up... I'm a little freaked out by the overnight trends for the big storm (for my area at least - jackpot to southern fringes) I know it's early, but all the models seemed to see the same thing. 

This one looks like it could be a decent 4" 

How exactly does this storm impact the location of the larger one anyways? I mean the technical details of it all. 

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20 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

Keep an eye on the NAM's early frames. At 06z the GFS is dug in a bit further than the NAM with the energy. I don't want to spend too much time analyzing this just yet but it's something to keep an eye on as the 12z suite starts to drop as those early frames will have a lot to do with what happens later on. 

Good one there.

Enjoy your posting.

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1 minute ago, EstorilM said:

I'm sure it'll pick up... I'm a little freaked out by the overnight trends for the big storm (for my area at least - jackpot to southern fringes) I know it's early, but all the models seemed to see the same thing. 

This one looks like it could be a decent 4" 

How exactly does this storm impact the location of the larger one anyways? I mean the technical details of it all. 

Think of it like train tracks. Basically this first storm is going to lay the tracks that this storm will follow. As our energy comes across the country, it merges with the northern stream pulls down cold air and lays a swatch of snow. The next storm, being in such close proximity, will then use that boundary that has been set up (baroclonic zone) which will be the onus for the development of the low. That storm is going to tap into the gulf and throw copious amounts of moisture into the warm zone and then up into the cold zone producing rain and snow. As UTS laid out, without the storm winding up tight, we shouldn't have a problem with the storm cutting so then it becomes where does our boundary set up? That will determine winners and losers. So really it all comes down to this first storm and how it sets up the atmosphere for storm 2. 

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Not that it necessarily means anything, but the met on the local news this morning that the models weren't showing much for the Pittsburgh area, but he thought they were underdoing this system and that he wouldn't rule out at 2-4" event.  he's made claims like these before and I've laughed at him, but he turned out spot on, so hopefully he's right again.

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