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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

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Saw this frame mentioned in the other thread. Yeah, long-range NAM I know, but nice to see it want to be a bit colder:

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

Page topper!
If the sun shines while it's snowing, what should you look for?
Snowbows 

Edited by phillyPete
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For what it´s worth, the 12Z ICON tracks this storm just to the south of Long Island.

And thus, it´s a better track as it relates to the storm on the 20th.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh78-105.gif.a2b158813b023c126ef19720a14a3479.gif

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3 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

For what it´s worth, the 12Z ICON tracks this storm just to the south of Long Island.

And thus, it´s a better track as it relates to the storm on the 20th.

 

 

Icon Smh🙄

 

 

Edited by shaulov4

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47 minutes ago, phillyPete said:

Saw this frame mentioned in the other thread. Yeah, long-range NAM I know, but nice to see it want to be a bit colder:

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

Page topper!
If the sun shines while it's snowing, what should you look for?
Snowbows 

It's a beaut Clark. It's a beaut.

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12Z ECMWF GFS tracks the storm center right over NYC again.

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2 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

12Z ECMWF tracks the storm center right over NYC again.

The Euro doesn't come out til 1.Are you looking at an old map?

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wave one. 

edit: snowmaps for illustrative purposes only. results will differ. 

Kind of seems like its settling in. ICON/GFS/NAM looking similar 

first wave.png

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Sad to say, but this will only be my second significant snow of the season so far >2" so I'm quite content with tracking this.

Lets look and see how fast the southern stream is running, that should give a clue to track

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16 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

The Euro doesn't come out til 1.Are you looking at an old map?

Sorry, meant the GFS.

Thanks for catching that.

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12z NAM does look really cold compared to other models.

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_52.png

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40 minutes ago, LUCC said:

12z NAM does look really cold compared to other models.

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_52.png

And south 🐧

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12Z ECMWF looks pretty cold for this storm so far through 90 hours.

Nice little snow event for much of NY state including southern areas.

Coastal plain looks warm to snow.

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Just now, Phased Vort said:

12Z ECMWF looks pretty cold for this storm so far through 90 hours.

Nice little snow event for much of NY state including southern areas.

Coastal plain looks warm to snow.

Then on 96, as the storm passing through northern NJ and southern NY state the temperatures rise and light rain takes over for Long Island and southern areas of southern New England.

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3 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

For what it´s worth, the 12Z ICON tracks this storm just to the south of Long Island.

And thus, it´s a better track as it relates to the storm on the 20th.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh78-105.gif.a2b158813b023c126ef19720a14a3479.gif

Question with regard to the ICON

Is this a model that recently replaced another, or if not who’s the proud owner? Meaning as far as like the GFS being ours and CMC being Canadian. 

Thanks

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Just now, Fire/Rescue said:

Question with regard to the ICON

Is this a model that recently replaced another, or if not who’s the proud owner? Meaning as far as like the GFS being ours and CMC being Canadian. 

Thanks

The Germans

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6 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

The Germans

Ahhhh that’s right, thank you 👍🏻

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This storm will be the appetizer for this weekend's Nor'Easter. Storm structure appears to be a shortwave embedded within generally zonal flow resulting in a quick moving, west to east oriented snow band. Chances are this system will have a narrow stripe of WWAs (2-4" w/ localized 6") but watches/warnings seem unlikely.

I expect the heaviest snow axis will set up along or just north of the existing snow cover boundary, which will reinforce the baroclinic zone ahead of the Nor'Easter. 

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29 minutes ago, Fire/Rescue said:

Ahhhh that’s right, thank you 👍🏻

Yep. 

Thanks to @StL WeatherJunkie

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Hard to believe we are so close to being within NAM range, and so little chatter here.

One interesting prospect from this storm is that it could influence the ZR potential of the Jan 19-21 storm by keeping surface temperatures cool. Just food for thought.

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It's snow, but not sure where that low is going :hmm-2:

Would think it should be located over Virginia...

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

Edited by PA Snow 84

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Little engine that could! Nice little table-setter there.

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11 minutes ago, Solstice said:

Hard to believe we are so close to being within NAM range, and so little chatter here.

One interesting prospect from this storm is that it could influence the ZR potential of the Jan 19-21 storm by keeping surface temperatures cool. Just food for thought.

Or perhaps setup a boundary more southern than currently depicted which will allow for a more snowier solution. Either/Or at this point.

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8 minutes ago, PA Snow 84 said:

It's snow, but not sure where that low is going :hmm-2:

Would think it should be located over Virginia...

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

weak coastal reflection

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1 minute ago, MDBlueRidge said:

weak coastal reflection

Indeed right off the carolina coast 

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So I am assuming if there was another frame or two, that low would jump off the Virginia/NC coast?

3 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

weak coastal reflection

 

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