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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

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Nam seeing a colder solution with this one as well as a robust one, once it leave it will like bring the cold with it and that's where I see the models are having a hard time...we shall see

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2 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

Indeed right off the carolina coast 

 

Just now, PA Snow 84 said:

So I am assuming if there was another frame or two, that low would jump off the Virginia/NC coast?

 

Si

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5 minutes ago, PA Snow 84 said:

So I am assuming if there was another frame or two, that low would jump off the Virginia/NC coast?

 

Not necessarily, but its possible. The reflection is there, can it transfer and strengthen? prob not. just an impulse that slides out and becomes a monster somewhere up for the greenlanders

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This just may be one of those little N stream energies that re-energizes at the coast. They are rare, but when they do it, it's very special. I'm thinking of yesterday's system that sort of did that same thing - so could be. Hmmm

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Herr ICON

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png.e4e23bf23ee9ad9db9785916809d7bcf.png

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These are always a surprise so get ready been watching this one pop up and leave. These tend to usually be my favorite.

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2 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Herr ICON

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png.e4e23bf23ee9ad9db9785916809d7bcf.png

That low is quite low......but then again ICON 🙄

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GFS coming in - a touch lower and slower. 

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1 minute ago, UTSwiinii said:

GFS coming in - a touch lower and slower. 

Looks like a combo of 12z and 6z which means in the middle

Edited by shaulov4

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a78.png.72148f5602dd4ade301cb9192d1475ca.png

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Take it away SL - I've got something to attend to for a couple mins

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high over NE a bit more stout on this run, low placement not appreciably different.

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Toss it - too much snow up by "the Port" LOL

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1 minute ago, UTSwiinii said:

Toss it - too much snow up by "the Port" LOL

Never mind - ratio maps donut hole the Port - must be correct after all. 

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I always love these systems of course I love a big storm but the mini ones always throw fun and can pack quite the punch!

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Models seem a bit perplexed at this point with that high to our north - where and how strong.

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2 hours ago, Solstice said:

Hard to believe we are so close to being within NAM range, and so little chatter here.

One interesting prospect from this storm is that it could influence the ZR potential of the Jan 19-21 storm by keeping surface temperatures cool. Just food for thought.

Yea. Good point indeed.

With that in mind, it´s either a case of this one making the region cold enough farther south to mitigate a bad icing scenario, or stay warm enough to allow rain.

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How the heck can the 18Z NAM be so cold like that? 

Well, it´s the long-range NAM but still, it´s very intriguing.

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I'm surprised how low the activity is for this thread.  I know the big threat following this one but figured with how snow starved us in PA are this season that this would garner more attention.  Add to that I can't even begin to count how many times over the years I've read we have to get system A out of the way before the models are going to be able to figure out what system B is gonna do.  Anyways keep up the good work UTS, VORT, Whats Happ, RTC... I'll be reading.

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9 minutes ago, JwolfPA said:

I'm surprised how low the activity is for this thread.  I know the big threat following this one but figured with how snow starved us in PA are this season that this would garner more attention.  Add to that I can't even begin to count how many times over the years I've read we have to get system A out of the way before the models are going to be able to figure out what system B is gonna do.  Anyways keep up the good work UTS, VORT, Whats Happ, RTC... I'll be reading.

You are welcome.

In this case, it´s very true.

This one will set the baroclinic zone, for the next one on the 20th. So it is actually important.

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Didn't the Nam do pretty good for the last storm in terms of where the heaviest snow would be?  Not necessarily with totals in all cases, but with where the snow would fall?

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17 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Yea. Good point indeed.

With that in mind, it´s either a case of this one making the region cold enough farther south to mitigate a bad icing scenario, or stay warm enough to allow rain.

2 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

Or perhaps setup a boundary more southern than currently depicted which will allow for a more snowier solution. Either/Or at this point.

Edited by shaulov4

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Just now, shaulov4 said:

 

I guess we are part of the same forum crew, uh? :classic_biggrin:

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