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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

MesoscaleBanding

January 20 - February 1 Arctic Cold

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Major models all showing Arctic cold to varying degrees spilling into the Eastern U.S. starting around Jan. 20:

 

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Edited by MesoscaleBanding
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1 hour ago, Central Illinois said:

FV3 last night was getting a lot of the midwest down to -10 to -25 for a extended period of time

FV3 still throwing around some pretty outrageous air/wind chill temps in its longer range...yikes :classic_laugh:

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18 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

FV3 still throwing around some pretty outrageous air/wind chill temps in its longer range...yikes :classic_laugh:

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That would literally be Pittsburgh's all time coldest temperature.

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Right in time for the Detroit Auto Show! Never fails! Always seems to be one of the coldest weeks of the year

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If you go by NWS the cold isn’t that bad down by Seven Maryland and Dover Delaware at least for this coming weekend and by 23rd temperatures start going into the 40s, something in the weather underground forecast 

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output_BGGlbv.gif.c8b9eaaa3052540512b57856c7df48cc.gif

To see the "barney colors" during the coldest averages of the year is nothing short of impressive. Of course this can all change in a heart beat, but I think Mother Nature is about to make us pay for the warm December and early January.

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The FV3 continues to throw out insane temperatures to close out the month.  🧐🥶

D4DE7C53-580E-4BD8-A6EA-AE093865A22B.png

Edited by Columbusbuckeye
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^Wow, this model is crap, isn't it?

Edited by Ahoff

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7 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

ILN knowingly set themselves up for failure :classic_laugh:

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Yeah, I do not envy them the call on temps, especially with snow cover and trying to determine cloud cover and whether a particular town/city is at a given elevation.  This is why I like mets stating a temperature range yet stating that isolated areas will be more or less than others.

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1 minute ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Easily the coldest night of the winter so far here currently...

20190114_212030.jpg

Snowpack does wonders!  It is 16.0 IMBY which is the coldest in 2019. Coldest of the season IMBY is 14.4 degrees on December 10th.

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1 hour ago, RobB said:

Snowpack does wonders!  It is 16.0 IMBY which is the coldest in 2019. Coldest of the season IMBY is 14.4 degrees on December 10th.

It sure does! Our low here last night was a balmy 7°F, which wouldn't have been attainable if it wasn't for our meager 2 inch snowpack.

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3 hours ago, Ahoff said:

^Wow, this model is crap, isn't it?

I can’t speak for temps, but it handled the previous system pretty well.  Obviously, those numbers will likely taper off some.  

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Coldest morning on record?l for some? I have never seen a 486 line :classic_ohmy:gfs_T2m_us_46.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

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4 hours ago, Hassaywx1990 said:

Coldest morning on record?l for some? I have never seen a 486 line :classic_ohmy:gfs_T2m_us_46.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

That would be brutal... crippling cold. 

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I find cold like that just hard to believe, I mean it's happened before, but, that's rare.  Below zero would shock me, but -20?

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8 hours ago, Hassaywx1990 said:

Coldest morning on record?l for some? I have never seen a 486 line :classic_ohmy:gfs_T2m_us_46.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

you can almost draw the snowpack line on that map 

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4 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

you can almost draw the snowpack line on that map 

A deep, fresh snow-pack makes all the difference in the world!

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output_UORcU3.gif.c8ef01f20291123b3d80dc635d7c928e.gif

What impresses me is the breadth and persistence of the negative anomalies by the end of the month. The Euro ENS mean is generally on board with this as well. And oh yeah, remember our friend that reappeared every so often in the eastern Pacific back in 2014/2015? He's BAAAAAACK...

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Don't get me wrong, all of this can change in a heart beat, but it's nice to at least have some interesting weather to follow for now!

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So, this thread is dead, but taking a look at the ENS means and OPS, it's a great possibility it will come back to life next week. Check out the Euro OPS 500mb anomaly loop from 12z today:

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And it's associated 2m temperatures:

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Trust me, I'm just as skeptical as you. However, it has support from the ENS means, as well as the GEFS means, and the GEM ops. Sure, while a lot can change between now and then, it's not in model fantasy-land anymore. Even if it doesn't end up being this extreme, the trend is definitely aimed towards a big-time blast of Arctic air for late next week into the following weekend.

Even more concerning is the blocking that sets up west, east, and north, potentially preventing this from moving itself along.

Okay, I'm done for now as there's a lot of other weather to keep our eyes on between now and then.

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