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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

ohiobuckeye45

January 17th-18th storm

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This is for the weak piece of energy out ahead of of our weekend storm. Could sneak out a wintry mix on the northern fringes but I more so want to keep an eye on how much snowpack this, along with the warmer temps, gets wiped out ahead of the larger storm

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

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Easy to side with the NAM here, definitely seeing the colder temps at the surface, however I think more of this will be pink than blue

1.gif

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13 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

1.png

And the Kuchera of that:

Untitled-1.thumb.png.94bbc02192cca93bd3f2f5ccb0d5caf7.png

Hopefully you don't feel like you're talking to yourself anymore, either! Lol

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12z NAM has definitely caught my attention, this storm could have a major impact on the next one and if the 12z NAM is correct then a further south solution of the next storm might need to be looked at(including a solution where it's south of the Ohio River. 

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5 minutes ago, weather_boy2010 said:

And the Kuchera of that:

Untitled-1.thumb.png.94bbc02192cca93bd3f2f5ccb0d5caf7.png

Hopefully you don't feel like you're talking to yourself anymore, either! Lol

Oddly I get more snow with 10:1 than Kuchera :classic_laugh:, will be interesting to see what the current deep snow pack does to actual temperatures leading up to this. 

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The latest SREF mean has CMH just above freezing on Thursday. It will definitely be an interesting thing to watch. 

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26 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Oddly I get more snow with 10:1 than Kuchera :classic_laugh:, will be interesting to see what the current deep snow pack does to actual temperatures leading up to this. 

yeah around here as well, that makes no sense considering temps at some points are above FZ

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43 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

yeah around here as well, that makes no sense considering temps at some points are above FZ

That means that the 10:1 is assuming 10:1 so it would be more than Kuchera  because it factors in the ratios which would be lower than 10:1 at times. Right? Not 100% sure that’s how Kuchera works

Edited by Snow_____
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6 minutes ago, Snow_____ said:

That means that the 10:1 is assuming 10:1 so it would be more than Kuchera  because it factors in the ratios which would be lower than 10:1 at times. Right? Not 100% sure that’s how Kuchera works

I believe that is correct. Could have 8:1 or something or maybe even freezing drizzle/rain at times.

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18 minutes ago, Snow_____ said:

That means that the 10:1 is assuming 10:1 so it would be more than Kuchera  because it factors in the ratios which would be lower than 10:1 at times. Right? Not 100% sure that’s how Kuchera works

 

12 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

I believe that is correct. Could have 8:1 or something or maybe even freezing drizzle/rain at times.

oh i read that initial statement wrong, im seeing some places get MORE on Kurchara than on 10:1, thats the scenario that doesnt make sense to me with 2m temps above FZ

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1 hour ago, Ingyball said:

12z NAM has definitely caught my attention, this storm could have a major impact on the next one and if the 12z NAM is correct then a further south solution of the next storm might need to be looked at(including a solution where it's south of the Ohio River. 

this was just mentioned by a couple of local mets here..this should be the one to watch before the weekend storm

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The 18z NAM is definitely Juicy for Columbus. 

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I'm just hoping that getting snow from this system doesn't screw us out of the next one lol. 

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the NAM is still the only model with this much cold air, so im cautious there. But its also the only model (in range so far) I would trust to gauge cold surface temps due to snowpack. But even that said I would have a hard time believing this would be snow and not just FZ/Sleet

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