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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Solstice

January 20-22, 2019 | Post-Storm Polar Air | Coldest Air of Season

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Well, looking at the temperatures, thought I might toss a ring into the temperature hat. We haven't had really extreme cold this year (except the November blast, but that was relative to the time of year). At the moment it looks significant enough to warrant its own thread, even for such a short timeframe.

 

CPC shows some temperature hazards.

Spoiler

hazards_d3_7_contours.thumb.png.648e6fa81bd2ba4aa4c3ba5062848622.png

 

Another CPC map - this time just temperatures.

Spoiler

temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.thumb.png.2881d07e9415a6df0fcf20baa58799ce.png

 

12z ICON 2m temperatures. It's a trash can, but I believe it is pretty good with temperatures. Bitter cold.

Spoiler

icon_T2m_neus_57.thumb.png.ab43ebb34163711f979c683ef5e2fdfb.png

 

12z GFS 2m temperatures. Not as extreme as the ICON, but still very, very cold.

Spoiler

gfs_T2m_neus_29.thumb.png.068e15e816e34ce3a169cc1d27add69b.png

 

GFS 2m temperature trend. Have to go back quite far to find any warm air. Even if it is luck, that's pretty astounding.

Spoiler

gfs_T2m_neus_fh168_trend.thumb.gif.7f125f8541c5073d17fa6d022063f538.gif

 

12z FV3 2m temperatures. More extreme than the GFS.

Spoiler

fv3p_T2m_neus_29.thumb.png.5bd28b396b7e9dfeff75e60353120da7.png

 

12z GEM 2m temperatures. This one looks tame compared to the others.

Spoiler

gem_T2m_neus_29.thumb.png.a14637d65d575d521c39c481719bb363.png

 

12z JMA 850 mb anomalies. Big blob of purple.

Spoiler

jma_T850a_us_8.png.fcc64c22ee694b92774db96f044c45ff.png

 

12z ECMWF 850 mb anomalies. Another big blob of purple.

Spoiler

ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png.4addfb64ba29df22fd493212e63ebd34.png

 

Alright, enough hype. First things first, let's address the elephant in the room. This event depends entirely on the Jan 19-21 storm system, how amped it is will impact how much cold air follows. It could end up being relatively tame, in which case the thread title will be renamed. But the potential exists for the coldest air of the season to reach the region, and that's all that matters at this point.

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Sweet mother of the Lord though - if GFS is to be believed, the Phil party will be uber cold this year. 

CTP does mention this time frame as the "coldest" so far this winter. It doesn't have a high bar to reach for in that regard but still. 

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How far will the 0F line get in the region?

That will be fun to see.

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Let´s say NYC will flirt with 0F. Could it get negative?

It may be close.

This cold will make people tropical air from August and September.

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44 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Let´s say NYC will flirt with 0F. Could it get negative?

It may be close.

This cold will make people tropical air from August and September.

If there is even a modest snow cover in place for a given location during the aforementioned invasion, then WOW.....those folks would then experience the utmost EXTREME aspect of the cold air as compared to folks that have no snow cover in place. 

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I hope there is snow, because bitter cold and no snow is stupid.

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Camden Delaware the temperatures 51f Sunday, 24f Monday, 35f Tuesday, 47f Wednesday, 45f Thursday, if those temperatures stay the course than at least in our area not much cold.

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FV3-GFS windchills for Monday morning. 

130478384_sfctapp.us_ne(11).thumb.png.cf3ae8beba61522c272b9999015f610d.png

 

:ColdBreath:

  • Hell NO! 1
  • Wow! 2

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12z FV3-GFS. Just keeps going colder!

1604628973_sfctapp.us_ne(14).thumb.png.5f9e1bc094351d9cce3d8183808c55c0.png

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6 hours ago, Solstice said:

12z FV3-GFS. Just keeps going colder!

1604628973_sfctapp.us_ne(14).thumb.png.5f9e1bc094351d9cce3d8183808c55c0.png

Ouch....

So, any indication NYC will hit zero degree or dip into negative territory ?

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1 hour ago, Phased Vort said:

Ouch....

So, any indication NYC will hit zero degree or dip into negative territory ?

 

0z ICON says hell yeah!

icon_T2m_neus_29.thumb.png.3c2a5f7b8ed8c8111132a9282cce4987.png

 

0z NAM less enthusiastic, but still quite cold.

namconus_T2m_neus_53.thumb.png.3717e622823beb8f0fea4602e0420df4.png

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2 minutes ago, Solstice said:

 

0z ICON says hell yeah!

icon_T2m_neus_29.thumb.png.3c2a5f7b8ed8c8111132a9282cce4987.png

 

0z NAM less enthusiastic, but still quite cold.

namconus_T2m_neus_53.thumb.png.3717e622823beb8f0fea4602e0420df4.png

Impressive! And amazing!

Do we know when was the last time NYC hit zero or negative territory?

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This was the 12Z ECMWF minimum and maximum temperature for New York state. See NYC. That´s insane cold.

On Monday the 21, the highest temperature that day would be 5 or 4 degrees. While the lowest for that day could be 0F.

hih.thumb.png.2732d209d8c25ae766ae43a0e05c540b.png122838100_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined102.thumb.png.d3f74bb42f778cff01d6834894eb28c0.png

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cold snap for 1 day :negative: I want to see a 3 week cold snap

Edited by brodoser1
  • Hell NO! 2

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On 1/15/2019 at 3:47 PM, Ahoff said:

I hope there is snow, because bitter cold and no snow is stupid.

The snow this weekend is laying the "groundwork" for bitter cold next week. 

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The cold around the end of the month looks to be even worse. 

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36 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

The cold around the end of the month looks to be even worse. 

Yep.  Not sure if I ever remember seeing the 850s advertised that cold over eastern CONUS.

 

ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

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1 hour ago, SnowDaze2019 said:

The snow this weekend is laying the "groundwork" for bitter cold next week. 

where local mets calling for rain in ct for next Thursday

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18 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

Impressive! And amazing!

Do we know when was the last time NYC hit zero or negative territory?

I believe it was January 19th 1994. Low was -3 in central park. 

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3 hours ago, stashua123 said:

I believe it was January 19th 1994. Low was -3 in central park. 

Thanks! 

So this January may actually break that record ir get near it.

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Well at least this looks to be on track. Lower than -20°F windchills on the latest NAM. This is the winter of frost heave - rain and then freezing temperatures. Road destroyers.

1749577503_sfctapp.us_ne(1).thumb.png.98f54f5060245dad9d291ab0f954903b.png

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12 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

Yep.  Not sure if I ever remember seeing the 850s advertised that cold over eastern CONUS.

 

ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

One of the 12z ECMWF maps was maxed out on Maue's color bar at -55F anomaly and had the 540 line in the GoMex

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17 hours ago, brodoser1 said:

where local mets calling for rain in ct for next Thursday

But ct is not getting the big snow 

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Won't the cold be less impressive due to the lower snow amounts that are likely to happen?

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This was more impressive in the long range. I actually had morning temps of 7 degrees here in northern VA last week - which was not really forecast at all. If this holds true, this "cold snap" will be a couple degrees warmer.

The winds and windchill are a totally different issue though - wind advisory tomorrow for gusts to 50.

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