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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

ohiobuckeye45

January 26th-27th Clipper

Staff Recommended Posts

Of all the energy coming down currently being modeled this one seems to have highest potential where the biggest question becomes how high are my ratios 

 

Gfs and ECM 

USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_162.gif

download (28).png

download (27).png

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0z GFS appears more robust. First image is the snowfall for IL/W IN and the second is the rest of IN/OH.

snku_024h.us_ov.png

snku_024h.us_ov1.png

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37 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

0z GFS appears more robust. First image is the snowfall for IL/W IN and the second is the rest of IN/OH.

snku_024h.us_ov.png

snku_024h.us_ov1.png

You got a zoomed out version of that map to show Toronto too?

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6 minutes ago, JW9304 said:

You got a zoomed out version of that map to show Toronto too?

 

snku_024h.us_ne.png

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8 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

 

snku_024h.us_ne.png

Thanks!

 

Looks like a coating at this point :| 

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I’m liking these weekend things. Doesn’t disrupt things lol.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1146 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 206 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

Ensembles suggest an anomalously deep upper trough will develop
over the Great Lakes during this period.

Ensembles are in fairly good agreement in bringing a cold front
through the area in the Thursday afternoon to Friday morning time
frame. Will go with chance PoPs for snow showers during those
periods. Light accumulations are possible.

The ensembles are in general agreement in suggesting a disturbance
will drop southeast into the long wave trough next weekend. There
is a large spread among the individual members at this time as to
the track and intensity of the associated surface surface system.
Will go with chance PoPs for snow from Friday night into Sunday
morning to cover this potential system. Additional accumulations
are possible here as well.

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We're due for one of those clipper systems than looks fairly average in the long range, but gets a QPF bump as the event nears & turns into a nice, fluffy 3-5"+ isolated lollipops event.

We will need it after possibly losing half or more of our snowpack Tues. night/Wed. :(

Edited by MesoscaleBanding
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12Z GFS image.thumb.png.c284833f19438541937b96f716d81628.png

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1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

ICON showing a GOM connection

 

icon1.png

12z GGEM appears to as well.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

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4 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

no mixing issues on this one lol

1.png

Lock it in! 😂 

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12z UK, I included Friday's weak energy just for fun. No thread for it yet but its also pretty much there on all models of varying intensity, just weaker than Sundays

1.gif

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Personally, I'm looking forward to the clipper-train that is appearing on the horizon. They tend to make more people than unhappy and can fluff up small amounts of QPF into impressive snowfall totals.

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11 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

 

1.png

If I get 7 off of this I swear to god 😂 I’m expecting 2-4 honestly clippers this time of year safe bet with lake enhancement but hey if that GOM connection happens get the plows ready 

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1 hour ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

 

1.png

Check out the airmass it dislodges also...

cmc_t2m_conus2_26.thumb.png.fa7064dcc5c32a1fcf1ad10ff6bee480.png

Those are temps at 11am CST. I wouldn't put much stock into it though as it tends to over-hype the severity of cold airmasses.

Although, in a cold regime, it does tend to do pretty well. So who knows...

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I will never forget the one (VERY cold) clipper we got a few years ago that was supposed to give us a nice 2"-3".. and then there was a sudden and dramatic shift to bring Central Ohio into a very narrow band of 6"-7". It was awesome.

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I remember one several years ago, somehow slipped through without a long/medium range thread. Chicago Storm(that's how long ago) created the thread like 24-36hours out. Ended up with WSWarnings from IA to OH with a broad 6"+ event. Still not sure how it slipped through the cracks without a thread for so long. Been longing ffor one of them type clippers ever since, pretty sure it tapped the gulf as well.

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(Sorry, off topic, but...)
Ok so those last few comments about sneaky snows got me thinking about a snow event that happened maybe 10 years ago west of Dayton. I want to say it was somewhere in Preble County... maybe close to Eaton?  Nobody else in the area got any snow that day (at least no amount of interest) but there was this ever-so-small area in Preble County that just got dumped on. I wish I could recall specifics but all I remember was watching radar and it was like this small stationary blob that just sat in the same place all afternoon.

I'm not even sure how that's possible and I know I sound crazy but do any Miami Valley posters remember this and can shed any light on specifics? I could be off on my date too but I know it had to be at least 8-10.. maybe more years ago. 

Edited by ZumaRat

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A good chunk of the GOM has positive anomalies right now, which could help make a gulf connection interesting. 

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36 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

ECM 10:1

2.png

I'm thinking someday I will need to build myself a cabin in the Tug Hill region...

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