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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

shaulov4

January 29-30, 2019 | Winter Storm

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5 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z CMC

 

gem_z500_mslp_us_fh174-210.gif

Ahh. The good old Syracuse to Charleston track. :huh-2:

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1 hour ago, 1816 said:

Ahh. The good old Syracuse to Charleston track. :huh-2:

That's Buffalo my man.

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18 minutes ago, RochesterSnow said:

That's Buffalo my man.

It's not really Charleston either but they served my purpose.  

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7 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z CMC

 

gem_z500_mslp_us_fh174-210.gif

I have a meteorologist friend who once told me that the CMC is the most accurate in a split flow pattern. I told him hes nuts and should get some rest. Not even ensembles know what the hell is going on right now.

Edited by shaulov4
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image.png.eafc1595882112839e5f24e411f87908.png

Still got that miller b look

Oh man the models are really having a hard time forecasting anything beyond this Friday. 

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GEFS also getting interesting for this timeframe.  Big jump towards a snowier solution for this timeframe only.   A handful of big hits. Much snowier from 18z, and all of today’s runs really

C14DAAF1-8877-4621-9144-D5372232F3BE.png

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2 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

GEFS also getting interesting for this timeframe.  Big jump towards a snowier solution for this timeframe only.   A handful of big hits. Much snowier from 18z, and all of today’s runs really

C14DAAF1-8877-4621-9144-D5372232F3BE.png

For inland areas

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This is got to be one of the most pathetic patterns ever. Getting more frontal systems then i did in summer!

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1 hour ago, avsguy said:

This is got to be one of the most pathetic patterns ever. Getting more frontal systems then i did in summer!

It seems to me that the models are having the worst time right now forecasting anything, I'd say we all should be prepared for a storm to pop up on these models a day or two before its suppose to hit. it may be a "surprise" storm.

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3 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

It seems to me that the models are having the worst time right now forecasting anything, I'd say we all should be prepared for a storm to pop up on these models a day or two before its suppose to hit. it may be a "surprise" storm.

I was thinking the same, hard to believe the models when they jump around so much.

Wpc extended

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

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5 hours ago, Storms R’ US said:

For inland areas

Yes that’s correct.  But don’t worry man, you’re not the only one who is hurting and well below average this year.  I have a total of just under 20” for the season here, and well the below the average of just under 20” for the month of January itself.  Without that November system we’re below 10”....

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28 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Yes that’s correct.  But don’t worry man, you’re not the only one who is hurting and well below average this year.  I have a total of just under 20” for the season here, and well the below the average of just under 20” for the month of January itself.  Without that November system we’re below 10”....

This winter is going to end up like that 11/12 winter where we got the October Snow and one plowable event in February. 

There is also the cosmic balance to consider.    My area, at least, was something like 22 inches over for rain in 2018.     Averages mean something.   It means that you get 22 inches over in one time period, you get 22 inches under in another.   We are now in that under period.  This doesn't mean we're not going to get any precip, it means we're going to get below average. 

As to the lack of snow, you can indeed blame me.  In 2011, I bought a plow for my truck.   We had two plowable events.  In 2018 I bought a new snowblower with the biggest engine I could get(Plat 24, SHO with 369CC).  This means we are skunked out of snow for the rest of the year ;)

 

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4 minutes ago, Malsua said:

This winter is going to end up like that 11/12 winter where we got the October Snow and one plowable event in February. 

There is also the cosmic balance to consider.    My area, at least, was something like 22 inches over for rain in 2018.     Averages mean something.   It means that you get 22 inches over in one time period, you get 22 inches under in another.   We are now in that under period.  This doesn't mean we're not going to get any precip, it means we're going to get below average. 

As to the lack of snow, you can indeed blame me.  In 2011, I bought a plow for my truck.   We had two plowable events.  In 2018 I bought a new snowblower with the biggest engine I could get(Plat 24, SHO with 369CC).  This means we are skunked out of snow for the rest of the year ;)

 

Well what are you waiting for ? Go sell that puppy ASAP, then just buy it back once a storm is on the horizon !

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5 hours ago, Storms R’ US said:

For inland areas

Reading that clown map verbatim, that is for January 23-January 31. I continue to review the time period and I'm still a bit confused which storm is going to fit here. (I meant to post clips last night but I'm on work travel and was exhausted).

Currently for this time period, the GFS-FV3 has a clipper merging with another system, the GFS has a storm prior and a storm on the 2nd, the CMC has a weak storm but looks like it's setting up a bigger storm and I can't see in between frames on the Euro so I'm not sure what it's doing with 24 hour increments. This is like whack-a-mole.

So what do we know for sure? Storm one comes through over the next 2 days and brings mainly rain but some backend snow for Pittsburgh and other areas as well as some LES. Storm 2 looks week and rolls in around the 27th and it's basically a ripple in the pattern working with some cold air. That is where I'm getting confused. Storm one has a thread, storm 2 I don't believe has a thread and storm 3 I thought was the 27th-29th. Now we definitely have a storm there, it looks warmer rather than white but that one rolls into the time period of this thread. Are we looking for redevelopment potential or are we thinking it's a wave like the FV3 sort of has?I do believe there is something on the 1st/2nd/3rd that bears watching and then a potential warm up might be in the cards based on the CFS, ensembles, the MJO, and looking at Asia. Anyways, that last part is more for the LR thread than it is for this but what I'm getting at is, which storm should I be looking at here? In a pattern like this with so much energy ripping through, it makes it tough on threads due our own limitations when in reality, the weather is still going to happen. 

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Pretty strong Miller B signal on a vast majority of the models.  I’d like to see the northern energy dive further south before it links up with the southern energy otherwise this will be a New England special.  Typically, these Miller B’s strike the higher Latitude areas a lot harder.  

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Just now, PA road DAWG said:

Pretty strong Miller B signal on a vast majority of the models.  I’d like to see the northern energy dive further south before it links up with the southern energy otherwise this will be a New England special.  Typically, these Miller B’s strike the higher Latitude areas a lot harder.  

Ok, so we're looking more toward the end of this time period and the clipper diving in and trying to merge. Got it. So it's more the 1/2/3 storm (Groundhog's Day blizzard anyone?) vs something tied in with the storm that comes through the 28th/29th/30th.

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6 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

Ok, so we're looking more toward the end of this time period and the clipper diving in and trying to merge. Got it. So it's more the 1/2/3 storm (Groundhog's Day blizzard anyone?) vs something tied in with the storm that comes through the 28th/29th/30th.

No, it’d be the first one as shown below.    The one for February would be a different thread different system . 

A2BC72E7-539B-4457-B2B6-148D2B708EF7.gif

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12Z GFS has a very weak clipper or piece of energy tracking through northern VA, NJ, SE NY and then southern New England and then leaves.

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23 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Cmc showing a wave of energy forming right on the heels of the clipper.  Naturally it’s a northern New England special.   Tough to get a snowstorm down here in the lower Latitudes....feel like we’re constantly chasing ghosts.  

BAB376DF-4597-42BF-91E6-A05ECA7835EB.gif

4B1AA548-1713-45CE-99B1-263D01060612.gif

 A run from 24 hours ago.

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5 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

It seems to me that the models are having the worst time right now forecasting anything, I'd say we all should be prepared for a storm to pop up on these models a day or two before its suppose to hit. it may be a "surprise" storm.

This x1000. I feel like we only have a good handle on the next 72 hours if that.

Edited by Razo

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29 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

 A run from 24 hours ago.

Good eye !  Nice catch...thank you 

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12Z ECMWF shows a stronger clipper that tracks more southward on Jan 29th, It then continues on Jan 30th, causing an overlap of the dates for this thread and the Jan 27-29th thread.

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8 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

It seems to me that the models are having the worst time right now forecasting anything, I'd say we all should be prepared for a storm to pop up on these models a day or two before its suppose to hit. it may be a "surprise" storm.

Models have sucked all winter (minus last storm which was modelled fairly well)  

Maybe a storm pops up, maybe it doesnt... it is what it is.

All it takes is 1 big storm for i95 and east and the winters around avg for most

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18 minutes ago, Goalie24 said:

Models have sucked all winter (minus last storm which was modelled fairly well)  

Maybe a storm pops up, maybe it doesnt... it is what it is.

All it takes is 1 big storm for i95 and east and the winters around avg for most

You speak the obvious my friend, but then again I guess that all we really need.

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1 hour ago, Goalie24 said:

Models have sucked all winter (minus last storm which was modelled fairly well)  

Maybe a storm pops up, maybe it doesnt... it is what it is.

All it takes is 1 big storm for i95 and east and the winters around avg for most

Maryland and Delaware received some snow this winter already and it looks like that will be all. Models looking ahead don’t look great at least for Dover area, maybe something around the 5th. Our normal temperatures are in the mid 40s so we are running out of time.

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