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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

shaulov4

January 29-30, 2019 | Winter Storm

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4 minutes ago, Goalie24 said:

Joe cioffi, who is one of the better mets for the li/nyc area seems ready to cross the next 2 weeks off for any big snow events.  

And the guys a snow lover, so hes not thrilled with this.

 

It sure looks that way

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1 hour ago, Goalie24 said:

Joe cioffi, who is one of the better mets for the li/nyc area seems ready to cross the next 2 weeks off for any big snow events.  

And the guys a snow lover, so hes not thrilled with this.

 

He has an account here, but I can't remember it off hand. Chimed in when he gave Dr. Cohen an interview about the SSW.

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Ummmm..... a winter Sandy (not that strength!!) potential? :hmm:

Edited by avsguy

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7 minutes ago, avsguy said:

Ummmm..... a winter Sandy (not that strength!!) potential? :hmm:

huh?

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11 minutes ago, avsguy said:

Ummmm..... a winter Sandy (not that strength!!) potential? :hmm:

Are you talking because of the dip in PV?

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1 minute ago, Uscg ast said:

Are you talking because of the dip in PV?

Pull it in!!

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GEFS showing a few nice hits for the mid Atlantic that redevelop off the coast 

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29 minutes ago, avsguy said:

Pull it in!!

lets let a few different runs come in at different times before we get the jump to conclusions mat out again, and @PA road DAWG put the weather long range dart board back into the closet. 

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1 hour ago, KENNYP2339 said:

lets let a few different runs come in at different times before we get the jump to conclusions mat out again, and @PA road DAWG put the weather long range dart board back into the closet. 

Hard to ignore those hot pink colors on the GEFS ensembles haaha

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5 hours ago, SolutionMan said:

Vodka cold

6D9E626D-B672-45B3-A27B-48A829463855.thumb.png.1ac644246bfb65f13271995074af9bfe (1).png

And that’s why there be no storms after this current rain event. The Delaware area might get lucky around the 5th February after that good luck. Might only be inland winter after that time frame.

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37 minutes ago, Storms R’ US said:

And that’s why there be no storms after this current rain event. The Delaware area might get lucky around the 5th February after that good luck. Might only be inland winter after that time frame.

Stop it 

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GYX has an interesting take, unfortunately, it falls on the cusp between this and the previous thread.  Edit, moved from other thread as it seemed to line up better here.

Quote

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ensemble and deterministic model solutions remain in good agreement
on the long wave pattern through the upcoming weekend and well into
next week. The current high amplitude pattern across the CONUS will
remain locked in place featuring the west coast ridge and a deep
trough across the remainder of the lower 48. The real question
this forecast period is when and to what degree phasing occurs
between northern and southern stream energy. Otherwise...we`re
left with a dominant northern stream and below normal temperatures
with repeated outbreaks of arctic air across the region punctuated
by brief warm ups ahead of several disturbances. At present...models
are suggesting the potential for a significant winter system
Tuesday into Wednesday next week. However some uncertainty remains
as energy responsible for this system is still well out over the
data sparse Pacific Ocean at moment.

WPC

9lhwbg_conus.gif.586ef5f129802c3934dbd0121c7e35d2.gif

9mhwbg_conus.gif.068fe5a87cafa59f16447afc9b7afcee.gif

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25 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

GYX has an interesting take, unfortunately, it falls on the cusp between this and the previous thread.  Edit, moved from other thread as it seemed to line up better here.

WPC

9lhwbg_conus.gif.586ef5f129802c3934dbd0121c7e35d2.gif

9mhwbg_conus.gif.068fe5a87cafa59f16447afc9b7afcee.gif

This would be a possibility for New England. But still, even that loos tough to get with the polar vortex dominating the region and keep extreme cold air in place. The cold air could be so thick and dense that it would be hard to get an actual storm to occur aside from lighter snows from time to time.

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I still think we have something better than what most expect coming for this date. 

12 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

GEFS showing a few nice hits for the mid Atlantic that redevelop off the coast 

 

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28 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

I still think we have something better than what most expect coming for this date. 

 

The only thing I’m seeing right now is persistent cold and troughing over the east coast with the lake belts gearing up to dump 

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The GEPS Canadian model is by far the most robust with this Miller B.   Not sure how much stock i put into it atm if any at all.  I’d like to see it have some more eps and GEFS support.  

DD4BD682-7019-4137-B68F-DA79AF79395E.gif

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If I were home I could loop this... but the EPS control...whoah.  

Spoiler

 

ecmwfa1ec---conus-216-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.6aacc366e85d21ff8ed315d2bd1b8521.png

ecmwfa1ec---conus-228-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.cde99911a0747babf9efb8930cc42e8a.png

ecmwfa1ec---conus-234-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.3e2e19e8f26a363a904c64e77ac795c0.png

ecmwfa1ec---conus-240-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.c21c5e76c168caf726ee8982811f3684.pngecmwfa1ec---conus-246-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.a1a386c58e4958b3114ee18e08efa509.png

ecmwfa1ec-null--usne-264-C-60hrqpfk.thumb.png.205e5c4d8b0c72f6e47ad9feb8a03ad3.png

mostly snow.

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7 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

If I were home I could loop this... but the EPS control...whoah.  

  Reveal hidden contents

 

ecmwfa1ec---conus-216-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.6aacc366e85d21ff8ed315d2bd1b8521.png

ecmwfa1ec---conus-228-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.cde99911a0747babf9efb8930cc42e8a.png

ecmwfa1ec---conus-234-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.3e2e19e8f26a363a904c64e77ac795c0.png

ecmwfa1ec---conus-240-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.c21c5e76c168caf726ee8982811f3684.pngecmwfa1ec---conus-246-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.a1a386c58e4958b3114ee18e08efa509.png

ecmwfa1ec-null--usne-264-C-60hrqpfk.thumb.png.205e5c4d8b0c72f6e47ad9feb8a03ad3.png

mostly snow.

Yea....it’s gorgeous...unfortunately it’s the control.  968 just sits and spins over Nantucket for 12+hours. 

AF3B684F-9FCF-4524-9012-2CA49C5A5E6C.png

 

987E3AB3-B959-4E6E-A3E0-7B5433905F68.png

8AC1FC79-73D0-4A61-95E3-163836D56DA4.png

5FEF4823-A46E-4C55-8B61-FB22C7EB55D7.png

6895D330-E7ED-4BE0-8A55-AC10FDAAEED0.png

Edited by PA road DAWG

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

The GEPS Canadian model is by far the most robust with this Miller B.   Not sure how much stock i put into it atm if any at all.  I’d like to see it have some more eps and GEFS support.  

DD4BD682-7019-4137-B68F-DA79AF79395E.gif

 

9 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

If I were home I could loop this... but the EPS control...whoah.  

  Reveal hidden contents

 

ecmwfa1ec---conus-216-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.6aacc366e85d21ff8ed315d2bd1b8521.png

ecmwfa1ec---conus-228-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.cde99911a0747babf9efb8930cc42e8a.png

ecmwfa1ec---conus-234-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.3e2e19e8f26a363a904c64e77ac795c0.png

ecmwfa1ec---conus-240-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.c21c5e76c168caf726ee8982811f3684.pngecmwfa1ec---conus-246-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.a1a386c58e4958b3114ee18e08efa509.png

ecmwfa1ec-null--usne-264-C-60hrqpfk.thumb.png.205e5c4d8b0c72f6e47ad9feb8a03ad3.png

mostly snow.

06z FV3 Shows support a day earlier 

image.png.27f9a10e2f471f632dc64d7e8b395132.png

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Euro op is just a littttle different....whiff

9D6842EF-DF58-4D9E-87C8-9FA50D3A9AAD.png

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ok I see the real  cold is back  but is there a storm ?

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