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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

shaulov4

January 29-30, 2019 | Winter Storm

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Before and after snow map from 0Z EPS Control run.   Basically you can see where snow was before and how much this "modeled" storm added.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012400_186_35_215_m0.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012400_258_35_215_m0.png

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4 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

Before and after snow map from 0Z EPS Control run.   Basically you can see where snow was before and how much this "modeled" storm added.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012400_186_35_215_m0.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012400_258_35_215_m0.png

<Rolls Eyes>

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7 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

Before and after snow map from 0Z EPS Control run.   Basically you can see where snow was before and how much this "modeled" storm added.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012400_186_35_215_m0.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012400_258_35_215_m0.png

 

78916ab9926e5bd8657dec9b5a861b0fcd103a2faa1c012530064867f36789f9.jpg

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50 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

If I were home I could loop this... but the EPS control...whoah.  

  Reveal hidden contents

 

ecmwfa1ec---conus-216-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.6aacc366e85d21ff8ed315d2bd1b8521.png

ecmwfa1ec---conus-228-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.cde99911a0747babf9efb8930cc42e8a.png

ecmwfa1ec---conus-234-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.3e2e19e8f26a363a904c64e77ac795c0.png

ecmwfa1ec---conus-240-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.c21c5e76c168caf726ee8982811f3684.pngecmwfa1ec---conus-246-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.a1a386c58e4958b3114ee18e08efa509.png

ecmwfa1ec-null--usne-264-C-60hrqpfk.thumb.png.205e5c4d8b0c72f6e47ad9feb8a03ad3.png

mostly snow.

As a fair warning.. I have seen plenty historic blizzards on the control run only to have them dissappear 

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1 minute ago, Uscg ast said:

As a fair warning.. I have seen plenty historic blizzards on the control run only to have them dissappear 

Agreed.  I’m willing to place a tomahawk ribeye wager that it’ll be gone come 12z. 

Edited by PA road DAWG
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40 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

Before and after snow map from 0Z EPS Control run.   Basically you can see where snow was before and how much this "modeled" storm added.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012400_186_35_215_m0.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012400_258_35_215_m0.png

..and we're OFF !!! (to the races with this thread, that is....)

 

Edited by BigBen89

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3 minutes ago, BigBen89 said:

..and we're OFF !!!

 

"we're OFF", is subject to interpretation.....The_Wish_Casting_Monkey

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After the clipper/FROPA passes on the 30th on the 12Z GFS, it gets so cold, that it´s impossible to get a storm for the region. Any storm energy that tries, would be squashed.

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15 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Agreed.  I’m willing to place a tomahawk ribeye wager that it’ll be gone come 12z. 

Back to that again? lololol - If we get pasted sometime during this winter I'll be willing to meet up with you at Mt Pocono casino - nice dinner and we'll play a few rounds of weather models (roulette & craps)

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 In my opinion this system is solely dependent on how far south the clipper can track before re-develops.  The further south it dives And develops off the coast,  the better chance to mid-Atlantic has at seeing some snow.  Otherwise this will primarily be a northern New England special yet again

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Well hello there euro !  Redevelops a little further south which helps the lower latitudes. Before and after snow 

084C4AB1-8EDA-4E21-9E19-8BE59A92EC21.png

0AC67564-009C-430A-9F34-7E8E615716B2.png

Edited by PA road DAWG

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It´s starting to look more and more that we will have a thread time range conflict.

The storm that occurs in this thread´s time frame starts on the 29th, which is one of the dates of the Jan 27-29th thread, and ends on January 31st.

The January 27-29 thread, has a clipper passing through and then has the storm starts on the 29th and enters this thread´s time frame.

I or one of the staff will need to fix this soon.

Likely, limit the other thread´s time frame to Jan 28th, hence ranging from January 27-28th and adjusting the date of this thread to Jan 29-31.

That would solve the issue.

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Just like PARD said.  The clipper pushed south a bit and a secondary develops further south also.  You really don't get the true picture on the 12Z  24 hour increments.   Looking at those I thought the relatively weak clipper over NW PA intensified rapidly in 24 hours and moved to NH as a 979 MB storm.  But that was totally wrong. The clipper forms a secondary further south as I mentioned already and that intensifies rapidly as it moves north.  Add in a tremendous arctic cold front and you get some snow.  What is unusual and much different than your typical scenario where the cold front passes after the QPF is gone in this instance the arctic front (surface temps and 850s crash) pushes through then the QPF comes later.   The snow map I'm posting is 10:1 where PARD posted the Kuchera.   Some snow all the way into the deep south.

Makes me wonder if the PV can push a little more south causing the secondary to "round the bend" even further south and east and tap into the Atlantic.  I don't know if that is out of the realm of possibility or not with this pretty strong PV.  :352nmsp:

 

Before and after to see where the new snow is modeled to be on the 12Z EURO

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_102_35_215.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_150_35_215.png

Edited by paletitsnow63
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If Louisiana gets more snow than me this winter, I will forever remember this winter to be the most infamous ever for me.

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10 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

Just like PARD said.  The clipper is pushed south a bit and a secondary develops further south also.  You really don't get the true picture on the 12Z  24 hour increments.   Looking at those I thought the relatively weak clipper over NW PA intensified rapidly in 24 hours and moved to NH as a 979 MB storm.  But that was totally wrong. The clipper forms a secondary further south as I mentioned already and that intensifies rapidly as it moves north.  Add in a tremendous arctic cold front and you get some snow.  What is unusual and much different than your typical scenario where the cold front passes after the QPF is gone in this instance the arctic front (surface temps and 850s crash) pushes through then the QPF comes later.   The snow map I'm posting is 10:1 where PARD posted the Kuchera.   Some snow all the way into the deep south.

Makes me wonder if the PV can push a little more south causing the secondary to "round the bend" even further south and east and tap into the Atlantic.  I don't know if that is out of the realm of possibility or not with this pretty strong PV.  :352nmsp:

 

Before and after to see where the new snow is modeled to be on the 12Z EURO

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_102_35_215.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_150_35_215.png

Good read. Nice to see someone say "I screwed that up" but come around with a new train of thought. 

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GFS came very close to doing it as well even putting a little bit of snow down in DC and the Delmarva before scooting.

gfs_z500_vort_us_29.png

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Looking at the 12Z GEFS looks like what I was questioning is a possibility.  That the secondary could form further South and / or east.  There are a couple of members that do just that.

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh132-138.gif

Edited by paletitsnow63

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42 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

Just like PARD said.  The clipper pushed south a bit and a secondary develops further south also.  You really don't get the true picture on the 12Z  24 hour increments.   Looking at those I thought the relatively weak clipper over NW PA intensified rapidly in 24 hours and moved to NH as a 979 MB storm.  But that was totally wrong. The clipper forms a secondary further south as I mentioned already and that intensifies rapidly as it moves north.  Add in a tremendous arctic cold front and you get some snow.  What is unusual and much different than your typical scenario where the cold front passes after the QPF is gone in this instance the arctic front (surface temps and 850s crash) pushes through then the QPF comes later.   The snow map I'm posting is 10:1 where PARD posted the Kuchera.   Some snow all the way into the deep south.

Makes me wonder if the PV can push a little more south causing the secondary to "round the bend" even further south and east and tap into the Atlantic.  I don't know if that is out of the realm of possibility or not with this pretty strong PV.  :352nmsp:

 

Before and after to see where the new snow is modeled to be on the 12Z EURO

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_102_35_215.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_150_35_215.png

Big difference from 0z to this 12z

24 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

GFS came very close to doing it as well even putting a little bit of snow down in DC and the Delmarva before scooting.

gfs_z500_vort_us_29.png

Would be fine with me since we are going to be in hard times soon and be more inland storms 

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This could get very interesting.  The 12Z EPS is further south with the clipper.    Looks like it ends up in SW PA / N WV.   Then 24 hours later it is about in the gulf of Maine.  I could be wrong but my guess is the primary forms a secondary and what we see at H144 is the secondary.  If somebody later could post some shots of the individual members in those in-between hours that would be great.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_fh120-144.gif

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So I'm wondering in regard to the 12Z EPS if the primary low doesn't form a secondary and goes straight to gulf of Maine at H144 (red line).  Or if a secondary forms somewhere in the black circle and goes to the gulf of Maine from there.

 

 

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_eus_6.png

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1 minute ago, paletitsnow63 said:

So I'm wondering in regard to the 12Z EPS if the primary low doesn't form a secondary and goes straight to gulf of Maine at H144 (red line).  Or if a secondary forms somewhere in the black circle and goes to the gulf of Maine from there.

 

 

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_eus_6.png

I have euro/eps access.  Give me a few. Just got home with the kids.  I’ll post it when I get a second 

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12Z EPS Control snow maps before and after.  Traces all the way down to Florida panhandle

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_108_35_215_m0.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_150_35_215_m0.png

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So this is definitely trending “interesting for me.   As long as that clipper dives we could be in good shape. The control run really bombs this out 

CF966528-F4EA-424C-B664-CB665DE2A1E9.png

B54FAE38-B73A-46F4-A150-5B0406BF7B48.png

2E7C0AF2-DE37-4553-A97E-396265127BD0.png

26EEF628-B43F-4ED1-850E-0EF7E8BAE385.png

C4F7E7A4-29C8-4D73-A73A-F63C0F258636.png

4C4FC50E-2F82-4F75-8B87-922F68AB7590.png

0C3A9123-6613-44E2-8AF0-9888B247DB22.png

6FA7FCC7-6700-4AA6-8E70-BE6B32B97BAC.png

0A860DE0-EEAA-4357-9A81-6FFBC91D16FF.png

Edited by PA road DAWG
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