Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...
Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Uscg ast

Polar Vortex dips into the Central United States, 29 January - 3 February OBS

Staff Recommended Posts

I have been watching the models for the past week and it seems. To show a bitter cold is going to set up over the central and Eastern United States. Temperatures are looking more like 60N vs 40N and I have seen expectations of -40F minimum temperatures or even lower in parts of MN and Iowa. Consequently, while this will affect the Central and Upper Midwest. 

 

Below is the EPS and Euro h5 30 January 2019 at 12z. Likewise I have included h85 temperatures for that time frame. 

image_2789411_19700118_170441.jpg

image_2791413_19700118_170442.jpg

image_2793415_19700118_170443.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We're supposed to get down to anywhere from -20 to -30 Tuesday night, and maybe a balmy -10 or so for a high Wednesday.  But depends on whose forecast you look at as they're kind of all over the place.

 

Keeps the riffraff out :ColdBreath:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good enough place to drop this:

 

Tab2FileL.png

Followed by the cold of course.

 

Thanks Alberta!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lots of Blizzard warnings and wind chill advisories out as well

Tab2FileL.png

Almost -60 for the wind chills!

Tab3FileL.png

Gusty winds

Tab4FileL.png

Quote

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 28 2019 - 00Z Wed Jan 30 2019

...Heavy snow expected across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes...

...Arctic air to bring dangerous wind chills across the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest starting Tuesday...

A frontal system dropping from the northern Plains will move into the
Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes later tonight and into tomorrow.
Blizzard warnings are currently in effect for eastern portions of North
and South Dakota--where 3 to 6 inches of snow can along with wind gusts up
to 60 mph. These conditions will cause blowing snow and white out
conditions. Expect blizzard conditions for this region through Monday
afternoon. Additionally, the heaviest snow accumulations are expected
across the lake-shore region of Wisconsin and western Michigan where over
a foot of snow will fall. Winter storm warnings and winter weather
advisories have been issued from northern portions of the Upper Midwest
into eastern Michigan and will stay in effect through Monday
evening/night. The areas impacted by this winter storm will experience
dangerous or impossible travel conditions.

Once the system moves eastward into the Ohio Valley and Southeast, an
Arctic airmass will follow suit. High temperatures on Tuesday across North
Dakota and northern Minnesota will stay only in the negative teens! Wind
chills could be as low as -45 degrees Fahrenheit for these areas. The
dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
little as 10 minutes. This bitter cold will last beyond the short term
period.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The PV is arriving in the northern Plains with fury... 40 knot sustained winds in NW SD. Buffalo, SD is reporting 44 MPH winds gusting up to 56. 32 degrees with a wind chill of 15.

v1gPvhj.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have to admit first time I have seen any of these warnings from NWS.

Law Enforcement Warning

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
LAW ENFORCEMENT WARNING
SOUTH DAKOTA LAW ENFORCEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1008 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2019

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE SOUTH
DAKOTA LAW ENFORCEMENT.

STRONG WINDS ARE CAUSING ROADS TO BECOME SLICK DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW. NO TRAVEL IS ADVISED IN WALWORTH COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

Civil Emergency Message

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
942 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2019

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE OFFICE
OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ROADS HAVE BECOME VERY SLIPPERY ACROSS MUCH OF EDMUNDS COUNTY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 12 WHERE IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THAT
SEVERAL CARS ARE IN THE DITCH. NO TRAVEL IS ADVISED AT THIS TIME.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the pressure if anybody is interested in that (changed the time frame a little to get the drop first):

 

 

Jan27P.png

  • Wow! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, not a flake in Detroit yet. Just a donut hole on the radar, which is all-too-familiar.

Edited by playa21

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Closest “official” reporting station has -47 wind chill at 4pm lol.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

20190130_074620.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fine, I concede!

-33.1 now though, catching up....

Most of the forecasts I saw said -40 for a low, don't think it's going to make it....bummer.  Might as well go for broke when it gets this cold lol.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SoDakFarmer said:

Fine, I concede!

-33.1 now though, catching up....

Most of the forecasts I saw said -40 for a low, don't think it's going to make it....bummer.  Might as well go for broke when it gets this cold lol.

Isn't that the point where PWS usually get inaccurate data?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Solstice said:

Isn't that the point where PWS usually get inaccurate data?

I had to look it up to make sure, but yes, the Davis stations are good to -40.

NWS 20 miles north showed -35 for a low, so it still seems be accurate for these temps anyway.  -33.1 is the lowest I recorded.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Been watching this for almost 48 hours now off lake Michigan, heavy snow and 40-50 mile hour winds, couple feet just South of Grand Rapids with drifts reported to 10 feet!

Not as intense as yesterday but still going.

radar.gif

 

  • Wow! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Starting to break out of the cold finally.  Emphasis on "starting" though, as it's still -13.5......but already risen 8 degrees off the low.  

 

Baby steps!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For numbers junkies, IMBY......

58 hours 55 minutes below zero.

49 hours 50 minutes of that time was -10 or colder

24 hours 5 minutes -20 or colder

3 hours 40 minutes -30 or colder

I set my PWS to log every 5 minutes, hence the increments.  So it's ballpark, but within a few minutes one way or the other

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×