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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

Phased Vort

February 5, 2019 | FROPA Precipitation | Retreating Deep Freeze

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PREFACE

Hello, posters and lurkers!

This thread opener will not be a very laborious one. Perhaps because the weather has been so ingrate, it does not deserve a traditional thread opener.

This time frame may give the region some kind of storm to entertain us courtesy of the same usually players; an active southern stream with its moisture riches and the northern stream. But this time, we have a very illustrious player; the polar vortex.

There are some indications that since the polar vortex will from time to time relax its grip over the region, a storm could take the opportunity to affect the region, using the polar vortex as some kind of blocking mechanism to spare us a Great Lakes cutter.

From the observations I have been making for the last two days, it seems that the first period that the polar vortex will relax some over the region will be during the time frame for this thread.

With so much energy crossing the continental US and that unrelenting southern stream branch, perhaps the presence of the polar vortex during a reloading period is what is needed to make a storm come together for the region in a way most could benefit.

Now, talking guidance wise, there are some hints here and there both on the operational and ensemble sides.

Please see them below, most should be subtle, though.

EPS CONTROL

12Z Jan 23rd                                                                             00Z Jan 24th

Webp.net-gifmaker.thumb.gif.719e4b9e1463f1730ab4c250f9e63f3f.gifeps_ptype_c01_conus_312.thumb.png.ca27044f7ef2fa0facb8dd2473fce043.png

12Z Jan 24th                                                                                               00Z Jan 25th

1950401694_Webp.net-gifmaker(2).thumb.gif.88a59b7ca8e3d63fd0d7c8912bcd0cd1.gif1035626051_Webp.net-gifmaker(1).gif.621296c8b54653d5257e0750f9f0b2b9.gif

00Z FV3                                                                                                           06Z FV3

317843835_fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47(1).png.d3df09da18db97cc3526a844cd4e7879.pngfv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png.164f0983b44662da4de7c22049ca706d.png

[Given the chaotic state of the atmosphere over the CONUS, the thread dates will likely need to be adjusted later on closer to whatever event comes].

 

 

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Yikes, we really are grasping here. We are so snow starved......But hey, what else are we going to do??

Edited by suzook
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I'll throw the CMC in since we're gettin all crazy

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

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15 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I'll throw the CMC in since we're gettin all crazy

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

Thanks for updating the thread with fresh data.

If the PV around and how chaotic the atmosphere has been, I guess posting the CMC is alright. :classic_laugh:

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"Perhaps because the weather has been so ingrate, it does not deserve a traditional thread opener"

Like everyone else, you are starting to anthropomorphize the weather.  I know that I am.  I've gotten to blaming our neighbors to the south for our woes, as if they are intentionally sending their warm cyclonic fronts up here (Stl - did I do OK there?).

Expecting snow in winter isn't an unreasonable expectation.  Expecting cool in autumn wasn't either, but we didn't get much of that.

Hey, weather is weather.  We're doing OK, right?  Other than those folks in NJ.  That road collapse was no joke... but, even then, nobody was hurt.  Thankfully.

We live in a great place, and I have no complaints.  

Except about the warmth.

And the humidity - in January!

And the fact that my lawn is like split pea soup, only dirtier

And the d@$!ed bugs!

OK, so I *do* have a few complaints!  See what you've done?  You've polluted my mind... ;)

Hang in there.  Keep it up - that was awesome.

 

 

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could the forecasted retreating cold air be a fluke like in 2014-2015? Remember that, the long range had hints of the pv lifting out of the air when in reality it was just seeing a new wave or refreshing of the existing cold air mass, the reason why i say that is the ridge out west sometimes gets stuck because of the cold HP parked in eastern central Canada.

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3 minutes ago, KENNYP2339 said:

could the forecasted retreating cold air be a fluke like in 2014-2015? Remember that, the long range had hints of the pv lifting out of the air when in reality it was just seeing a new wave or refreshing of the existing cold air mass, the reason why i say that is the ridge out west sometimes gets stuck because of the cold HP parked in eastern central Canada.

This winter overall has been almost impossible to forecast, so sure, its possible???

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4 minutes ago, KENNYP2339 said:

could the forecasted retreating cold air be a fluke like in 2014-2015? Remember that, the long range had hints of the pv lifting out of the air when in reality it was just seeing a new wave or refreshing of the existing cold air mass, the reason why i say that is the ridge out west sometimes gets stuck because of the cold HP parked in eastern central Canada.

Right now I do not think it will retreat completely.

As I mentioned in the opener, as the polar vortex reloads, in other words, retreats for a bit or relaxes for a bit, perhaps we could get a storm during that relaxing period.

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12z EPS concentrated more on this storm 

Spoiler

ecmwfa1ec---conus-222-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.e0b12a86516d6cca420de49d71fa68c5.png

ecmwfa1ec---east_coast-240-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.9ce1c290e0ae301a16585de2f4459426.png


 

 

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4 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Agreed.  I’m willing to place a tomahawk ribeye wager that it’ll be gone come 12z. 

PARD, I should have bet you and got a "tomahawk ribeye"!   12Z EPS Control and it's still there for first February weekend.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_234_35_149_m0.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_252_35_215_m0.png

Edited by paletitsnow63
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Another look at 12Z EPS Control

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_240_35_149_m0.png

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3 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

PARD, I should have bet you and got a "tomahawk ribeye"!   12Z EPS Control and it's still there for first February weekend.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_234_35_149_m0.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_252_35_215_m0.png

Well see....  this is a decent time frame for something to happen.

If it follows the seasonal trends something will not time right and we wont get this for i95 east

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2 hours ago, RobBucksPA said:

"Perhaps because the weather has been so ingrate, it does not deserve a traditional thread opener"

Like everyone else, you are starting to anthropomorphize the weather.  I know that I am.  I've gotten to blaming our neighbors to the south for our woes, as if they are intentionally sending their warm cyclonic fronts up here (Stl - did I do OK there?).

Expecting snow in winter isn't an unreasonable expectation.  Expecting cool in autumn wasn't either, but we didn't get much of that.

Hey, weather is weather.  We're doing OK, right?  Other than those folks in NJ.  That road collapse was no joke... but, even then, nobody was hurt.  Thankfully.

We live in a great place, and I have no complaints.  

Except about the warmth.

And the humidity - in January!

And the fact that my lawn is like split pea soup, only dirtier

And the d@$!ed bugs!

OK, so I *do* have a few complaints!  See what you've done?  You've polluted my mind... ;)

Hang in there.  Keep it up - that was awesome.

I recommend avoiding anthropomorphisms 

Cyclones advected warm air masses poleward resulting in lots of rain.  :rapper-smiley-emoticon:

I probably shouldn't quit my day job, eh?

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oooh feet of snow on the models 10 days out.  

 

Image result for eyeroll gif

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1 hour ago, paletitsnow63 said:

PARD, I should have bet you and got a "tomahawk ribeye"!   12Z EPS Control and it's still there for first February weekend.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_234_35_149_m0.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_252_35_215_m0.png

There were other storms that showed snows as the other one and PA, NNJcand other places got little bit. The farm by Eagles Mere PA only got 5” due to the storm moving inland.

if this is a strong storm it too may be able to move west depending on how the cold air comes in

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47 minutes ago, Storms R’ US said:

There were other storms that showed snows as the other one and PA, NNJcand other places got little bit. The farm by Eagles Mere PA only got 5” due to the storm moving inland.

if this is a strong storm it too may be able to move west depending on how the cold air comes in

Too strong? lmao you should just hope there's a storm first 🙄

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2 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

PARD, I should have bet you and got a "tomahawk ribeye"!   12Z EPS Control and it's still there for first February weekend.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_234_35_149_m0.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_252_35_215_m0.png

I was hoping you didn’t notice hahahahah....yea pretty surprising too because it’s an absolute BOMB 

2 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

By the end of its run the 12Z EPS Control gives "everybody" 1 - 2 feet or more.   :classic_tongue:   But it has done this before and results were far from a match.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_360_35_215_m0.png

Yes the eps control has been far from Reliable . 

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1 hour ago, Storms R’ US said:

There were other storms that showed snows as the other one and PA, NNJcand other places got little bit. The farm by Eagles Mere PA only got 5” due to the storm moving inland.

if this is a strong storm it too may be able to move west depending on how the cold air comes in

Whoa easy now!  It’s the only model showing something of that magnitude, and the only one showing a storm really.  It’s an anomaly for sure 

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4 hours ago, StretchCT said:

12z EPS concentrated more on this storm 

  Hide contents

ecmwfa1ec---conus-222-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.e0b12a86516d6cca420de49d71fa68c5.png

ecmwfa1ec---east_coast-240-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.9ce1c290e0ae301a16585de2f4459426.png

Lock it in 😜
 

 

 

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0Z CMC

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh174-216.gif

0Z CMC snow map after both storms

 

gem_asnow_neus_37.png

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Just now, paletitsnow63 said:

0Z CMC

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh174-216.gif

My fear is that suppression may be the winner when all is set and done, but if there's enough to put up a fight look out.

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00Z EPS Control:

1791733955_Webp.net-gifmaker(1).gif.8ecc40f5336de5d037ecd84cd7960fd6.gif

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The euro op and eps really aren't that far off.  Just a difference in the orientation of the trough/cut off is either bringing it up the coast or pushing it out to sea. 

ecmwfa1ec---usmercator-216-C-500vortrb_whitecounty.thumb.png.d9e81677cfea168cecfcb29d72d4abef.png

ecmwfued---usmercator-216-C-500vortrb_whitecounty.thumb.png.feaad45632a754a3aca9eafeabd57097.png

Euro op does develop a storm. But as noted above, with the positively tilted trough, it kicks out. We've seen a lot of positively tilted troughs this year.

ecmwfued---east_coast-222-C-mslpthkpcpk_white.thumb.png.38f67d78e4a2a9a5d682eac9d2961cc4.png

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close but looks like a change over to rain for ct needs to get a little colder

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