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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Phased Vort

February 5, 2019 | FROPA Precipitation | Retreating Deep Freeze

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35 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

The euro op and eps really aren't that far off.  Just a difference in the orientation of the trough/cut off is either bringing it up the coast or pushing it out to sea. 

ecmwfa1ec---usmercator-216-C-500vortrb_whitecounty.thumb.png.d9e81677cfea168cecfcb29d72d4abef.png

ecmwfued---usmercator-216-C-500vortrb_whitecounty.thumb.png.feaad45632a754a3aca9eafeabd57097.png

Euro op does develop a storm. But as noted above, with the positively tilted trough, it kicks out. We've seen a lot of positively tilted troughs this year.

ecmwfued---east_coast-222-C-mslpthkpcpk_white.thumb.png.38f67d78e4a2a9a5d682eac9d2961cc4.png

With all that rain in Delaware and SNJ the CMC was showing, I would love to see it kicked out.

BTW those crazy totals the CMC was showing. The other storm showed those too and the storm went inland and brought the warmth and rain. One would wonder if a strong storm like this could actually do the same thing, bring in a lot of warmth rain and move inland especially if the trough isn’t that positively tilted.

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2 minutes ago, Storms R’ US said:

With all that rain in Delaware and SNJ the CMC was showing, I would love to see it kicked out.

BTW those crazy totals the CMC was showing. The other storm showed those too and the storm went inland and brought the warmth and rain. One would wonder if a strong storm like this could actually do the same thing, bring in a lot of warmth rain and move inland especially if the trough isn’t that positively tilted.

You gotta stop saying that everything went inland, because the truth of the matter is, it didnt.

 

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2 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

You gotta stop saying that everything went inland, because the truth of the matter is, it didnt.

 

Amen, he has multiple posts stating the same thing....

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13 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

You gotta stop saying that everything went inland, because the truth of the matter is, it didnt.

 

Last I saw the L was south of LI and heading ENE.  Did it perhaps clip SE MA (not the cape - I don't consider the Cape inland).  If it went over New Bedford/Taunton/Plymouth.... whether that's inland is debateable.  When talking evacuating a hurricane, it is, but weather wise, I still think coastal.

 

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54 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

You gotta stop saying that everything went inland, because the truth of the matter is, it didnt.

My unsolicited 2 cents is that storms have consistently favored inland snowfall versus coastal snowfall all season. Therefore, in my humble opinion, expecting this storm to be different is much closer to wishcasting than it is forecasting. 

Edit: maybe coastal locations end up getting rocked, but the odds are stacked against that occurring. 

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie

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Maybe we are being fooled by the models atm.  Seems like all year the models pick up on something and it goes away. Just maybe the models don't see much this time around,  yet the stars will magically align.  One can still hope i suppose :classic_biggrin:

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45 minutes ago, avsguy said:

Maybe we are being fooled by the models atm.  Seems like all year the models pick up on something and it goes away. Just maybe the models don't see much this time around,  yet the stars will magically align.  One can still hope i suppose :classic_biggrin:

I wouldn't say they go away...but I would say that the NW trend is legit (to STL's point)...many storms, at least to me, this year have verified 100-200 miles (just a spitball number here) further NW compared to where they're modeled 7 days out.

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Normal times this is a good spot for the GFS to be placing a storm this far out.  200 mile shift NW may not help this one though.

cQR3z9L.png

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CMC

LK7pfrO.png

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2 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

You gotta stop saying that everything went inland, because the truth of the matter is, it didnt.

 

Okay, that low did push some into PA and brought the warm air and rain. Before it was showing the L south with substantial snowfall. The models have been all over the place and like some have said are having a difficult time. They might even have a difficult time on this cold outbreak e.g. how cold, how far reaching, and how long it will last? With WTC temperatures forecasted where we live in the upper 20’s Wednesday-Saturday and back up to mid 30’s Sunday, that’s not bad and short lived 

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34 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Normal times this is a good spot for the GFS to be placing a storm this far out.  200 mile shift NW may not help this one though.

cQR3z9L.png

Positive tilting trough 

30 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

CMC

LK7pfrO.png

Wide trough. Need something less positive and wide otherwise storms set suppressed and pushed out to sea

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12Z FV3 tried.

We will see how the storm evolves and the time frame as well, as the days pass.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh168-204.gif.cd9592778142d00f14cb975e8d9e4cba.gif

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This is probably for long range thread, but the unrelenting Pacifc flow crashing into the west and the pacific flow flooding the conus shown on this map is crazy. Without that letting up, it is going to be very difficult to get a snow storm on the EC. Especially when there is just no blocking to hold these cold blasts in place. They come in for a couple days and then warms back up. We need a huge pattern change :thregen:  and not sure we are going to get it.

 

 

warm 1250 012519.png

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12Z ECMWF is forming a slow-moving monster just off the southeast CONUS coast.

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2 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

12Z ECMWF is forming a slow-moving monster just off the southeast CONUS coast.

Snow for northern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

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8 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

12Z ECMWF is forming a slow-moving monster just off the southeast CONUS coast.

Where have I seen that before? :hmm: (Looks back through thread for storm happening before this)

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Starts moving ENE out to sea on hour 222.

Big storm ... :classic_blink:

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12Z ECMWF:

630020328_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesEastCoastUSAPrecipTypeMSLP.gif.5fb9a642ed9ecdbafa59bbda274ba28f.gif

Similar ideas on the FV3 and ECMWF on today´s 12Z runs.

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7 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

12Z ECMWF:

630020328_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesEastCoastUSAPrecipTypeMSLP.gif.5fb9a642ed9ecdbafa59bbda274ba28f.gif

Similar ideas on the FV3 and ECMWF on today´s 12Z runs.

Wow two sub 980 storms on the Euro this run.   Might be the first time this season.

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4 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Wow two sub 980 storms on the Euro this run.   Might be the first time this season.

Well, let's hope this one trans More Northwest. I don't know why, but this one gives me a good feeling. I just feel it in my bones. This is going to be our storm in the Northeast come especially the metro area. I'm going out on a limb and saying that now. If it doesn't pan out, let the kanning begin

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Big storms......go out to sea in a progressive pattern with a split flow and raging arctic air. No that's not how it goes......

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12Z EURO Snowmap for this time frame.  Congrats Columbia, SC & Augusta, GA.

 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012512_228_508_215.png

Edited by paletitsnow63

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58 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

12Z ECMWF:

630020328_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesEastCoastUSAPrecipTypeMSLP.gif.5fb9a642ed9ecdbafa59bbda274ba28f.gif

Similar ideas on the FV3 and ECMWF on today´s 12Z runs.

Exactly where we want it at this lead time, finally. Now can we do our NW dance from here????  Again without blocking, we are going to all have to get together and will this thing to turn up the coast. Lots of questions and uncertainties. At least there is something there to track.........today anyway :ok-access:

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44 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Wow two sub 980 storms on the Euro this run.   Might be the first time this season.

In Pennsylvania, the highest pressures are observed between September and November and the lowest pressures occurred between March and May. On average, pressures are ~3 mb higher during the fall than the spring and the most rapid drop in pressure occurs between January and March. This is just a long-winded way of saying the stronger storms being advertised have climatic support.

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59 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z EURO Snowmap for this time frame.  Congrats Columbia, SC & Augusta, GA.

 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012512_228_508_215.png

This storm is over 10 days away, nobody knows where it is going.

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