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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Phased Vort

February 5, 2019 | FROPA Precipitation | Retreating Deep Freeze

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Finally, maybe this time period has a shot.... models have floated it for days, but just haven't been able to focus it for anything along the benchmark.  Definitely excited to see if something can get far enough up the coast.  

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3 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z EURO Snowmap for this time frame.  Congrats Columbia, SC & Augusta, GA.

 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012512_228_508_215.png

The town I grew up in is partially in that bullseye, those folks down there would be thrilled to see that.  They often several years without even seeing a 2-3 inches.

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4 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

Big storms......go out to sea in a progressive pattern with a split flow and raging arctic air. No that's not how it goes......

I made similar comments above about the CMC.

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8 hours ago, avsguy said:

Maybe we are being fooled by the models atm.  Seems like all year the models pick up on something and it goes away. Just maybe the models don't see much this time around,  yet the stars will magically align.  One can still hope i suppose :classic_biggrin:

Agee models have fooled everyone to big snows in the past. The cold coming in is against us and the wide/positive trough doesn’t help. Hopefully something in the not so distant future after the cold eases up.

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Expecting the same old pattern for ct will see feb time to break out the clubs get to putting  green get ready for spring 

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8 minutes ago, Bigmike65 said:

I saw a robin yesterday morning...winter is over folks!!!

Winter is not over.This week temperatures are going to be 10 to 15 below normal. 

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1 hour ago, Bigmike65 said:

Big whoop, cold temps....snow is a no go this winter 

You will be warned very shortly 

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1 hour ago, shaulov4 said:

You will be warned very shortly 

Yep 36f Sunday and Monday 44f. Cold no snow and with warmth usually wet. At least here Felton Delaware.

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1 hour ago, Storms R’ US said:

Yep 36f Sunday and Monday 44f. Cold no snow and with warmth usually wet. At least here Felton Delaware.

I thought the new pattern would be better and last longer.

It is what it is... got time to change but it may be getting late early for those east of 95.

 

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1 hour ago, Goalie24 said:

I thought the new pattern would be better and last longer.

It is what it is... got time to change but it may be getting late early for those east of 95.

 

I’m okay with it, our normal daytime high is in the 40’s. So, will be below for a couple days then climbing back up. It will be interesting to see if the inland areas and NE can get hit with any decent snowfall before things break for warmth.

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9 hours ago, Beave said:

Winter is not over.This week temperatures are going to be 10 to 15 below normal. 

Yup, then 50 and rain back to cold. Have seen this story play out enough not to hope for a change. Just wish spring isn't delayed this year, and precip to take a break. 

4 hours ago, Goalie24 said:

I thought the new pattern would be better and last longer.

It is what it is... got time to change but it may be getting late early for those east of 95.

 

What new pattern? 

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2 hours ago, Bigmike65 said:

About to get my baseball glove out for spring. 

Mike you should take @Phased Vort advice and just start a complaining thread. Be better than this. 

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If given the choice between OTS and cutter, I'll take the out-to-sea solution. I hope this isn't yet another rainmaker for us. I just checked the long-range thread, and I saw a low positioned--you guessed it--in the Great Lakes. I hope it misses us.

Edited by bobbo428

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8 hours ago, Bigmike65 said:

 

815FCE07-D16B-45E3-86F1-C11BBF5C5785.jpeg

Exactly what you need here in Felton Delaware for the low 50s and rain for both Monday 4th and Tuesday 5th per the TWC forecast. At least we’ve received 7-8 inches of snow this winter that has been controlled by the PACJET split flow. I did state that cold my not be as as modeled. It won’t be for us as our forecast has changed big time with only the Thursday being 21f and the other days being in the 30s with Sunday 44f and Monday 50f and Tuesday 53f both days rain. This coming Tuesday 29th 44f rain.

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Still don’t see that pattern change that every one keeps saying  since dec .its just one of those winters wasn’t meant to be

C695DBED-D9F6-428B-923E-5814F05723C4.jpeg

Edited by brodoser1
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12 minutes ago, brodoser1 said:

Still don’t see that pattern change that every one keeps saying  since dec .its just one of those winters wasn’t meant to be

C695DBED-D9F6-428B-923E-5814F05723C4.jpeg

😂 looks like ours except cooler 

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I'll enjoy the snowpack I have for the next week, because it appears that the system we're getting early next week will decimate it, leaving us with generally bare ground when the next cold shot comes. I'll look on the bright side:  the cutter will get rid of all of the ice we have around here.

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2 hours ago, brodoser1 said:

Still don’t see that pattern change that every one keeps saying  since dec .its just one of those winters wasn’t meant to be

C695DBED-D9F6-428B-923E-5814F05723C4.jpeg

Oh winter, we hardly knew ye.

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The "R" word has already appeared in our NWS for next Sunday--we are once again going from the deep freeze to Umbrella Weather. Am I surprised? No.

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It's rather fascinating how a possible scenario changes so drastically.

Inrerested to see how the end product verifies.

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2 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

It's rather fascinating how a possible scenario changes so drastically.

Inrerested to see how the end product verifies.

Admittedly, I was liking the 4th-11th for a warm up. I wasn't sure if it was going to come before the storm (I.e. storm pushing through the Midwest) or if this storm would push through and then we'd get a zonal pattern. I'm still not sold that this one pushes through the Midwest but it's looking more and more likely as the PV is going to push out and leave a void. If we don't get it here, watch for what comes at the end of the "warmer weather" as we may have a reset. We also have to watch for ice in this situation because even though it's "stale," it may not want to pull out all that fast or the WAA might not be that strong. 

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Indeed.

Ice is always a bad scenario.

Storms usually like to knock on the region's door after warm ups.

And I would say that it could be a bowling ball type system ir an overrunnung ine.

Will investigate and see where it leads.

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Well right now looks like mid to upper 50s with some rain. I’ll take those temperatures anytime after some frigid temperatures.

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Interestingly enough the 00Z ECMWF is showing a low-pressure system coming from the southeast CONUS and tracking towards NE North Carolina and then off the coast close to the benchmark. Not a strong low pressure.

But at the same time that is happening, there is energy passing to the north and also incoming from the NW.

It looks warm still, but recent runs have looked warmer.

Definitely, something to keep an eye on and the days go by.

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Just to keep people focused, if just a bit:

This is the storm system that we have.  Is it a blizzard?  No.  Will it deliver to the snow-starved areas?  Maybe.  I get the frustration, but the weather is the weather.  

One thing's for sure: January 28 is not the end of winter.  Feb 14 is not the end of winter.  Sun angles, etc. are all real, but the angles in November are basically the same as they are in February, and so far that's the largest storm that we've had this winter.   Plus, of course, it's still quite a bit colder than November.

Enjoy this storm, large or small.  Maybe it's the last one of the year... but probably not.

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