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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Phased Vort

February 5, 2019 | FROPA Precipitation | Retreating Deep Freeze

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If this is the correct storm, euro shows a messy mix with snow into New England thanks in large part to strong HP coming down..Looks like HP off the SE coast as well..

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We get more messy mix/snow two days later, may be some left over energy. 

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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This one looks likely to be rain for most as the Pacific jet really heats things up, however, what comes after is intriguing.....and may need a thread if someone is willing

Edited by shaulov4

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34 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

This one looks likely to be rain for most as the Pacific jet really heats things up, however, what comes after is intriguing.....and may need a thread if someone is willing

Too many threads to early imo... 

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Things have been so volatile that what was been advertised changed so drastically, it does not even look like the possible original storm.

Will wait another day or two to make sure the next time frame in line won´t change completely from apples to oranges. When that happens, it really messes up the thread.

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I really wish there was hope down the road but I’m afraid it’t time to look to 2020!!

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1 minute ago, LoDelWayne said:

I really wish there was hope down the road but I’m afraid it’t time to look to 2020!!

Welcome!

Well, it´s really tough to say that 40 to 60 days, there will not be a single storm to affect most of the region, even if it´s a rogue lone wolf storm.

The time frame for this thread seems like it will be flooded with pacific air and that should last for about 5 to 7 days, IMO.

Still there is the risk that areas that hold on to the colder at the surface get a wintry mix or ice outcome.

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Thanks! In the east TN mountains at 2200’ we usually hold the cold but this year has been different trust me!

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Should there be a Feb 2nd clipper topic?

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49 minutes ago, avsguy said:

Should there be a Feb 2nd clipper topic?

If you feel it meets criteria, go for it. 

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NWS - 2/3 & 2/4 mix to rain, highs in the mid 40's. 

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Yeah the warmth comes into Delaware with temperatures 40s and then February 4-7 will be mid 50s with rain. Cold no snow followed by warmth and rain. LUCC get your clubs ready or, are you one that plays in the 30s & 40s if the sun is shining and the course is open? I’ve seen people playing golf here in the upper 30s/40s.

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16 hours ago, Goalie24 said:

Too many threads to early imo... 

I agree, everything that has looked interesting, has been a let down.  No need to jump far ahead, when, if the pattern continues, it will be pretty unremarkable.

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imo   you must be  within 5  days  to start a storm thread .  anything beyond  that is a fantasy 

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BSR has been a game changer in the longer range. Not as fantasy as you may think.

46 minutes ago, Snobal said:

imo   you must be  within 5  days  to start a storm thread .  anything beyond  that is a fantasy 

 

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1 hour ago, Snobal said:

imo   you must be  within 5  days  to start a storm thread .  anything beyond  that is a fantasy 

Good to see you back, 'bal!

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1 hour ago, PA Snow 84 said:

BSR has been a game changer in the longer range. Not as fantasy as you may think.

 

It's not a guarentee.... those things have failed many times this season alone.  

This season much of what has been shown in the long range as snow storms has not come to fruition,at least for the tri state area. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Goalie24 said:

It's not a guarentee.... those things have failed many times this season alone.  

This season much of what has been shown in the long range as snow storms has not come to fruition,at least for the tri state area. 

 

Nothing is a guarantee in weather, everyone knows this. Also, BSR is used to predict a storm for a given location at a given time, it is never used for p-types. With that being said, the BSR has done very well but as any weather "tool", it is not perfect.

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3 hours ago, Snobal said:

imo   you must be  within 5  days  to start a storm thread .  anything beyond  that is a fantasy 

I get what you're saying but strongly disagree. NWS Boston more or less takes your position as they will sometimes mention a "signal" of something a week out but rarely has anything to say beyond "something to watch". Here however, 7-10 days out is often the first sign of something and most of the time there turns out to be a storm (and contrary to all the model bashing, I for one find it pretty amazing). It might come in warm or west or weak or whatnot but the discussion early on, for me, is generally the most instructive and highest S/N ratio.

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5 hours ago, Snobal said:

imo   you must be  within 5  days  to start a storm thread .  anything beyond  that is a fantasy 

My take is 10 days (240 hrs) to start watching, but that you can't take it serious until 168hrs.  If you opened a thread just 5 days before, you'd miss a lot of noise, but also some good analysis as to how storms track and behave. Waiting until 5 days.... you can get that from your local met.  

Anything out past 10 days belongs in long range. 

Edited by StretchCT
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7 hours ago, Snobal said:

imo   you must be  within 5  days  to start a storm thread .  anything beyond  that is a fantasy 

That would save us a lot of grief..  maybe we should have a fantasy sub board for storms more than 5 days out.. and then pull the storm over if its still there 4 or 5 days out.  Let that one be the NSFW thread.   Put it behind the login in function.. maybe a better name would be the padded room.

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OT Really looking into it, our next potential "snow threat or whatever at this point", comes after the feb 7th as I believe that the Jan 19-20th redux x2 is real.

Edited by shaulov4

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GYX

Quote

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The last of the very cold conditions will continue to retreat
to the north late in the weekend as heights rise over the
eastern portions of the United States. Warm air advection
continues on a developing southwesterly flow Monday into
Tuesday. 00Z ensemble and deterministic guidance in good
agreement suggesting low pressure will pass west of the region
by Tuesday.

With this scenario, ptype will primarily be snow at the onset of
the warm air advection Sunday and Sunday night. Warm air
dominates the region by Monday as a frontal system remains
nearly stationary over the Saint Lawrence River Valley. Light
rain is expected with a light mix possible in the north. This
will continue Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a developing
area of low pressure. By late Tuesday, the 00Z model suite
suggests a cold front will cross region with mountain snow
showers and possibly a snow squall over the higher terrain. This
will be a modified airmass with temperatures not nearly as
chilly as cold air advection will be limited to a short period
of time.

 

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So we have yet another situation where there's several pieces of energy flying around, but nothing can come together, kinda groundhog day-esque.  Piece one of the Cali coast is really the player here.  It won't have much moisture to return with quite likely, unless it can somehow siphon off something from the system off the SE coast. 

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This SE system has been poorly modeled, and while it likely won't have much of a sensible impact, it bears watching.  It's a combination of the complex in the GOMEX (3) and a system moving through SoCal (2).  Tens keep it closer to the coast, but it's likely to be mostly insignificant.

Long range NAM

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My one thought is whether the SE system can tug the main player a bit SE, again, not really gonna pull a snowstorm out of it, but perhaps it can beat down the SE ridge, and push the baroclinic zone to a more favorable location for the subsequent threat.

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Really liked this line of thought.

That would go a long way to improve the subsequent threat´s outcome.

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If you showed me this map and asked me what month it was, I'd say end of March, beginning of April.

image.png.3ac335acda96baa0d6e8f53b5044b9a8.png

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