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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

ohiobuckeye45

January 31st - February 1st Clipper

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Nam is a lot further north than current gfs but we’ll see what happens

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Right on the line again. I think i'll just take spring now.

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24 minutes ago, Snow_____ said:

Nam is a lot further north than current gfs but we’ll see what happens

I would normally say it's probably crap. However, the NAM and GFS picked up on the northerly shift to the clipper yesterday long before any other model. We'll see...

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19 minutes ago, weather_boy2010 said:

I would normally say it's probably crap. However, the NAM and GFS picked up on the northerly shift to the clipper yesterday long before any other model. We'll see...

Yeah 12Z GFS still south. Can’t post at the moment. 

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7 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said:

Yeah 12Z GFS still south. Can’t post at the moment. 

Here you go!

 

snku_acc.us_ov.png

Edited by beaver56

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some of this in MO/IL/KY is from a prior system

1.png

Edited by ohiobuckeye45

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an oldie but goodie, who remembers this exact chart?! We used to use this ALLLL the time back in early accuweather days before kuchara snow maps

1.png

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23 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

an oldie but goodie, who remembers this exact chart?! We used to use this ALLLL the time back in early accuweather days before kuchara snow maps

1.png

Holy 2008 Batman! My how time flys!

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27 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

12z UK looks really good

 

2.png

1.gif

Lock. It. IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You know it's been a winter of nickels and dimes, but mostly nickels when you get pumped over a clipper dropping 3 or 4 inches on you.

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Sref Plumes still say Detroit may have a chance! But that be way north from what all the other models are showing. 

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ECM still way behind the curve here. Old bias of struggling with clippers showing up (too dry). (995 MB clippers don't count in that bias lol)

1.png

Edited by ohiobuckeye45

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there are a few GEFS members with .30-.50 swaths of QPF. I wouldn't at all be shocked to see someone get 6''

1.png

3.png

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21 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

there are a few GEFS members with .30-.50 swaths of QPF. I wouldn't at all be shocked to see someone get 6''

1.png

3.png

If there's justice in the weather world hopefully it's me.

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2 hours ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

an oldie but goodie, who remembers this exact chart?! We used to use this ALLLL the time back in early accuweather days before kuchara snow maps

1.png

This is neat.  Do you mind if I save it to the Meteorology 101 board??

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28 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

This is neat.  Do you mind if I save it to the Meteorology 101 board??

sure, I had to google to get it back, I used to have it bookmarked but I think its on my computer at home or lost

ILN (I believe previous disco)

mentions "a few inches"

Quote

As the cold air continues to retreat Thursday night into Friday, west to southwest low to mid level flow will result in a continued period of WAA/isentropic lift. This will combine with some mid level energy dropping down from the northwest to lead to an increasing chance of snow Thursday night and continuing into Friday morning. There remains some model differences in the timing and placement of this, but models have been consistent enough over the last few runs to support at least likely pops at this point, with the possibility of a few inches of snow accumulation. Temperatures will likely not drop off much Thursday evening and then possibly slowly rise through the night. Highs on Friday will range from the lower 20s in the north to the lower 30s across the south.

 

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updated grids show a bulk of the snow falling starting out at 10 and  ending around 15 degrees

the NAM is a little south and definitely stronger at the surface so far

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Granted some of the CLE forecast area is currently on the northern edge, but they aren’t very excited at this point.

Quote

A weak short wave will move through the region Thursday night and early Friday along with isentropic lift as the fridge airmass departs. Only light snow is expected.

 

Edited by Hiramite

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4 hours ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

an oldie but goodie, who remembers this exact chart?! We used to use this ALLLL the time back in early accuweather days before kuchara snow maps

1.png

This has been saved at:

https://wxdisco.com/meteo-101/winter-systems/

Edited by Hiramite

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Pretty consistent with placement and QPF regarding the 18z NAM and GFS.

qpf_acc.us_ov.png

 

snku_acc.us_ov.png

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