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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

MidMichiganWX

February 3rd-5th Winter Storm

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GFS has been showing something for a couple days now. Currently way north out of most of our area, but probably worth watching.

12Z GFS/FV3

 

floop-gfs-2019012812.prateptype_cat.conus.gif

floop-gfs_fv3-2019012812.prateptype_cat.conus.gif

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Go from 0 or below on Thursday to upper 40s and rain on Sunday. Only in the midwest.

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Why can't we just hold on to snow pack for more than a week this winter?! Only need a 300 mile shift south :classic_laugh:

  • Haha 1

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20 hours ago, easton229 said:

Why can't we just hold on to snow pack for more than a week this winter?! Only need a 300 mile shift south :classic_laugh:

Crazier things have happened. Then again, I'm too much of an optimistic sometimes...

18 hours ago, WeatherMonger said:

CPC

 

419344592_hazards_d3_7_contours(5).thumb.png.1897552535bb797bff503fc58e9fc750.png

Gross. We go from record-breaking cold to heavy rain in the span of a week. Crazy!

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This isn't going to benefit any of us regulars and will melt my snowpack - which I will have had for 3 weeks this Saturday!

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Looks to be a rainer but so far ORD 31.2", RFD 40.2"seasonal snowfall totals. Already exceeds RFD 37"  average for the entire winter. Closing in on ORD 36.1" seasonal average also

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2 hours ago, chicagosnow said:

This isn't going to benefit any of us regulars and will melt my snowpack - which I will have had for 3 weeks this Saturday!

Not looking good tbh. There's another storm about 2 days after this though that could be promising. Never know. 

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this is the first of 3 cutters on the ECM....each one proceeds to be further and further SE so theoretically this one looks like a hit for the Upper MW, second GLs, and 3rd OV. We'd be too lucky for it to work out like that though

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7 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

this is the first of 3 cutters on the ECM....each one proceeds to be further and further SE so theoretically this one looks like a hit for the Upper MW, second GLs, and 3rd OV. We'd be too lucky for it to work out like that though

Wishful thinking lol

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2 hours ago, ncinthenext3 said:

Look like time to grill and play cornhole on Sunday.

Might be a little soggy for that haha

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4 hours ago, ncinthenext3 said:

Look like time to grill and play cornhole on Sunday.

I heard about a sports ball game taking place Sunday. It would be only natural to partake in these activities. 

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The WPC likes WI and the UP. Then the polar bears after that.

59656F5C-93A8-43B3-AC1A-A4770CEFBF91.gif

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2 hours ago, MidMichiganWX said:

Yeah, she gone. This is way north. 

the one following this just a day or 2 later has a favorable GLs track, but not the dynamics to bring cold air in. Beyond this looks like an incredible amount of shots on goal 

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Might have to either turn this into a severe weather thread or make a new thread. GFS is trending north with the system... 12z Euro is stronger and further northwest and has a possible tornado outbreak for Illinois and Indiana. As of right now, appears GFS is caving to Euro. Still lots of time though.

NOsw7u9.png

7yRVxqR.png

5r0imKR.png

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18z GFS continues a trend north and slower.

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5 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Might have to either turn this into a severe weather thread or make a new thread. GFS is trending north with the system... 12z Euro is stronger and further northwest and has a possible tornado outbreak for Illinois and Indiana. As of right now, appears GFS is caving to Euro. Still lots of time though.

NOsw7u9.png

7yRVxqR.png

5r0imKR.png

Interesting might have to keep a eye on this 

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Both models are holding their ground... Euro still has a more significant severe event for the Midwest with a stronger/slower system... GFS has a small event due to a faster/weaker system. GFS has been trending slower though.

WPC's early thoughts have the low being faster than either model is showing but is more in line with GFS than Euro

AxcYDDv.gif

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18z GFS is continuing to trend north and slower, so much that if you put on a loop of previous runs for a set time period that it looks like you're simply looking a few frames back of one model run. With that said, I feel comfortable enough to open a separate thread for at least a chance for thunderstorms, if not eventually turning into a severe thunderstorm thread if Euro's solution turns out to be mostly right. 

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