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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

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1 hour ago, shaulov4 said:

Yes! This is crazy. I've been quiet, but this might go down as the worst winter I ever experience here in central Jersey. I think I have an inch in total for this winter excluding the November storm. I have eyes on the 11th-13,15th period but after that things look pretty grim for winter lovers. 

Outlooks after 2/15 will change.

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1 hour ago, RTC2 said:

Outlooks after 2/15 will change.

Noted, however when looking at the grand scheme of the pattern I wouldn't better my bottom dollar for a change for the better ;)

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2 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

Noted, however when looking at the grand scheme of the pattern I wouldn't better my bottom dollar for a change for the better ;)

Yea, it is tough. This one has been brutal to break. It is the million dollar question. Does the NAO keep killing us, which is the only hope for this pattern, or does it finally settle in some before it is too late. FWIW, a storm cutting south would actually help squash our SE ridge. The neg NAO has been the ultimate unicorn though, but there has been some signals that it could show up. It doesn't have to be extreme either.

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9 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

Noted, however when looking at the grand scheme of the pattern I wouldn't better my bottom dollar for a change for the better ;)

Hang in there brother, here are some simple round about stats for my area... this year we have about 22" total so far, 10" November, 1" x-mas morning, 6" mid Jan, 5" last week.

at this time last year we were at a total of almost 24"

Total snow last season up here was almost 70" 

https://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/?section=njcp&target=wint1718snowtotals

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29 minutes ago, KENNYP2339 said:

Hang in there brother, here are some simple round about stats for my area... this year we have about 22" total so far, 10" November, 1" x-mas morning, 6" mid Jan, 5" last week.

at this time last year we were at a total of almost 24"

Total snow last season up here was almost 70" 

https://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/?section=njcp&target=wint1718snowtotals

Exactly, the people saying winter is over are being ridiculous. One or 2 big storms, with plenty of time left, is very possible(probable?)

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2 hours ago, suzook said:

Exactly, the people saying winter is over are being ridiculous. One or 2 big storms, with plenty of time left, is very possible(probable?)

Yes I agree, all it takes is “one”.  However, there’s no indiciations of good teleconnections of that going forward.  The forecasted “good pattern” seemed to never have come to fruition.  With that being said, there’s always a chance a storm sneaks in at the right time, but it’s a limited window since the pattern is not ripe.   I think our best shot lies within 2/12-17....but even the latest guidance suggests the east coast ridging might have something to say about that...time will tell.   So far this winter reminds me of 2011-2012.  Early fall monster storm then nothing significant to follow. 

Edited by PA road DAWG

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gfs_apcpn_neus_52.png

 

gfs_asnow_neus_41.png

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21 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

So far this winter reminds me of 2011-2012.  Early fall monster storm then nothing significant to follow. 

It could be, but I the jet stream seems to be changing out in the west pacific, this will create a ripple effect down stream to us, we would have been in an awesome setup if it wasn't the dam split flow, but again, changes look like there coming, I think starting next after the 10th we should be seeing better conditions; and if not.. time to get the golf clubs and fishing gear cleaned up and ready to rock and roll. Don't forget March 10th is daylight savings time... best time of the year for me anyway. 

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@LUCC whats nice with those maps is you can clearly see the northern stream or the cold arctic air, look at the precip and then look at the snow totals, that some cold stuff up north, so the storm axis is for our southern stream is south, leading to that cold(er) wedge in the NE and northern MA. I am very hopeful here. 

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1 hour ago, KENNYP2339 said:

@LUCC whats nice with those maps is you can clearly see the northern stream or the cold arctic air, look at the precip and then look at the snow totals, that some cold stuff up north, so the storm axis is for our southern stream is south, leading to that cold(er) wedge in the NE and northern MA. I am very hopeful here. 

Hope your right, but hope is just that. I really don't think this winter has too much left, started out with a nice surprise in November and a decent storm down south but that's about it. The usual LE areas, NE, etc. got their snows, but it's been a tough one for the coastal plain.

 

Also, it's nice that the days are getting longer, still light out at 5:30, it's coming. 

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3 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Yes I agree, all it takes is “one”.  However, there’s no indiciations of good teleconnections of that going forward.  The forecasted “good pattern” seemed to never have come to fruition.  With that being said, there’s always a chance a storm sneaks in at the right time, but it’s a limited window since the pattern is not ripe.   I think our best shot lies within 2/12-17....but even the latest guidance suggests the east coast ridging might have something to say about that...time will tell.   So far this winter reminds me of 2011-2012.  Early fall monster storm then nothing significant to follow. 

Yeah, I've been reminded of 2011-12 often with this year, though this January was a little better than Jan 2012. I do remember the constant the pattern will be good claims of that year too that never came.

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Snowise, sure looking like 2011-12. But 2011-12 was MUCH warmer. No comparison there.

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I am so looking forward to the late-week cold rain/mudfest (NOT), followed by the cold air, which will coincide with--you guessed it--the return to bare ground for the first time in a month in Greater Binghamton.

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4 hours ago, poconosms1 said:

at least this is something positive

 

image.png.9e5ac6a773742569f7fd7ee4359acfa6.png

Looks negative to me....

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15 minutes ago, LUCC said:

Looks negative to me....

Yawn...I will believe it when I see it. 

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2 hours ago, suzook said:

Yawn...I will believe it when I see it. 

The switch looks to coincide with the 10th &11th thread.  

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Sarcasm not realized.

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Disagree with anyone who says this is like '11-'12...you're looking at your backyard more than the bigger picture if you do. Don't have time to do more research, but that one was warm from coast to coast and border to border. Intermountain west was the only place it was near normal. This winter also seems to be dominated by a -PNA but there has been enough cold air to give those north of the "divide" (aka northern New England) a huge snow year...currently keeping pace with the historical '68-'69 monster winter.

That in mind...thinking of other winters like '07-'08 & '00-'01 are better analogies where winter was pretty non-existent in southern parts of the region, but huge snowmaker north of the "divide".

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Yesterday was absolutely gorgeous, mid 50s, a nice reprieve from winter. PWM should break it's soft daily high record of 51° today.

This one looking like a slopfest.

GYX

Quote

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main forecast challenges revolve around precip type and amounts
Wednesday night through Thursday night. A generally flat
southwesterly flow aloft will be in place Wednesday night into
Thursday with a couple of embedded short wave troughs bringing
precipitation to our region.

The first wave arrives around 00z Thursday. At this time,
temperatures are expected to be around or below freezing at the
SFC across the entire CWA. This should be the case for much if
not all of Wednesday night. The problem is how warm does it get
aloft. This will determine precipitation type at any given
location. Took a blend of Max wet bulb temps aloft from various
models and this dictated the precip types in our forecast for
Wednesday night. This yielded mainly sleet across southern NH,
with a mix of sleet and freezing rain for Cheshire and
Hillsborough Counties. Further north, we have mainly snow due to
evaporational cooling in the column, but we do expect some
sleet to mix in from time to time across central zones.

Precipitation amounts is another question as various solutions
in the 00z model suite exist. For example, the ECMWF and GGEM
are more robust with the short wave trough and consequently
yield more precipitation, particularly later Wednesday night
into Thursday morning when the rest of the model suite shuts off
most measurable precip by then. Have taken a blend approach of
both camps at this time while the guidance comes more in line
with the handling of speed and amplification of short wave
trough and associated forcing for ascent. The result is a
general 1-3" of snow/sleet across the area with highest amounts
generally along a KHIE-KPWM line. This may certainly change
today as the amount of precip and degree of warming aloft may
change as well.

In any event, the Thursday morning commute should be rather
slippery as a mix of precipitation should be falling.

It looks like we`ll have a break between waves Thursday
afternoon as the flow amplifies as the next short wave trough
over the Great Lakes approaches. The eventual result from this
next short wave trough looks to be another shot of
precipitation Thursday night. At this time it looks like the
boundary layer will be warmer than the previous night, but we
still expect many central and northern zones to be at or just
below freezing. With temperatures aloft continuing to warm
aloft, a good deal of the precipitation that falls with SFC
temps below freezing should be in the form of light freezing
rain. This should be especially likely in the foothills where
low level cold air tends to bank up against the higher terrain.
Temps should gradually warm elsewhere overnight.

SREFs

Screenshot_20190205-054447.jpg.b039b3a31504f4f168dc704f40ed7377.jpg

 

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GYX forecast for northeast NH (heading up there for 4 days starting Thur).  This is such a stereotypical New England weather mix . . . "don't like the weather?  Just wait a minute."  A little snow, some freezing rain, rain, then single-digit temps.  :classic_rolleyes:

image.png.92a7702565e0680d2500c47370e7a26c.png

Edited by NEK
typo
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5/0z NAM3 pops the low pretty far south.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_56.thumb.png.c626df8c44d7b62d3b40bde27cc12a7b.png

QPFHSD

Quote

Upstate New York and New England...

Day 2...

The same storm system impacting the Midwest on Day 1 will drive a warm front northward into New York and New England Wednesday. Along this boundary, a surface low will skirt south of New England, and the combination of initially cold surface temperatures within the Canadian high, and the isallobaric wind into the developing low, will allow for surface temps to remain below freezing even as 850mb temps climb well above 0C. This will create widespread freezing rain across the region, with low-level partial thicknesses supportive of freezing rain down the coast initially before the cold air erodes. In the terrain from the Worcester Hills and Berkshires, and points north and west, moderate rainfall rates and moderate QPF will create the potential for significant freezing rain, and many areas above 1000 feet have high probabilities for 0.1 inches, with the chance for 0.25 inches of accretion highest in the Berkshires and southern Green Mountains.

Weiss

 

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3 hours ago, NEK said:

GYX forecast for northeast NH (heading up there for 4 days starting Thur).  This is such a stereotypical New England weather mix . . . "don't like the weather?  Just wait a minute."  A little snow, some freezing rain, rain, then single-digit temps.  :classic_rolleyes:

image.png.92a7702565e0680d2500c47370e7a26c.png

Northeast NH...? :352nmsp: Does that just imply Errol and its suburbs (aka hunting camps)?

Wish my forecast was looking that good....looking like a decent slug of fzr followed by rain at the moment here. :negative:

Btw...being from Maidstone, may need to PM you. Everytime I drive through the Stark area, the Percy's look soo intriguing....

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NAM reminding me to get some gas for the generator....that's a lot fzr...

834813746_ScreenShot2019-02-05at9_33_55AM.thumb.png.a4ff974384b8b4a21d85f8630f7a0068.png

Edited by telejunkie
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