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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Winter_warlock

February 1-2, 2019 | Snow Event

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18Z NAM not too shabby along the Delmarva area.

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_41.png

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18Z NAM shows 1 - 2" along Mason Dixon line into DE.  More in WV mountains.

 

namconus_asnow_neus_19.png

Edited by paletitsnow63

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12z EURO actually shows a contour closing off.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png

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4 minutes ago, avsguy said:

12z EURO actually shows a contour closing off.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png

Hmm yeah I saw that.  Hoping that little development could mean a more enhanced precipitation field 

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36 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

18Z NAM shows 1 - 2" along Mason Dixon line into DE.  More in WV mountains.

 

namconus_asnow_neus_19.png

While it's not worth getting too detailed, ratios will probably be above 10:1 for this event. Still need to figure out where the banding sets up though. 

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1 hour ago, risingriver said:

Just like we rarely get significant back end snows as the cold air filters in.  Last night was overdone by some, though NWS did correctly remove Spotsylvania from the WWA they had for the I95 corridor, which was actually as much about the rush hour timing as the amounts. Takes very little rush hour precip to create havoc here on a biblical scale.

Would be nice to see snow on Friday, but not expecting anything but a few flurries at most in Virginia. There isn't even a red letter L on the models for a center for the clipper. Looks to be all orographically driven precip to me. We are on the dry side of the Apps for that kind of snow.

 

 

Looking long range though, I may be looking back on this week as the last two best opportunities of the coldest part of winter. Pushing 60 by Tuesday? Just what kind of arctic outbreak is this anyway? :chicken_dance-176:

 

A very short lived out break. 

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Pitsburgh NWS:

Quote

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main focus during the short term forecast will be an upper
level shortwave that moves through the region late Thursday
night into Friday. Snowfall amounts continue to trend up,
especially Friday morning in the ridges where several inches
will be possible. After coordination with local offices, decided
not to issue a winter storm watch as of yet considering the
uncertainty of the full intensity of the snowfall. Have added a
mention in the HWO about the snow threat.

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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40 minutes ago, Winter_warlock said:

Hmm yeah I saw that.  Hoping that little development could mean a more enhanced precipitation field 

Could be a typical delmarva surprise......

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12z NAVGEM showing a little action too.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_9.png

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2 hours ago, LUCC said:

Could be a typical delmarva surprise......

That's what I was thinking. It has happened many times before with this set up. Over performing !! 

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2 hours ago, avsguy said:

12z NAVGEM showing a little action too.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_9.png

Nice to see some support from at least a few models for this. 

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11 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

It´s impressive how so close, 2.5 days out more or less, there´s still model spread.

Some of them maintain a better-structured precipitation canopy after crossing the mountains. Others, on the other hand, all but dissipate the canopy.

May be a case that if the precipitation shield tracks over West Virginia, the west facing slopes of the high mountains there squeeze out almost all the moisture and dump it all there. Then, there is not much for the weak energy to lift again on the east side of the mountains for the eastern regions closer to the coast over VA, Maryland, southern PA and Delmarva, as the downsloping effect on the east side of the mountain and the very cold dry air combined become too much of a challenge for that weak energy to overcome and possibly lift whatever moisture it musters for the near coastal plain areas.

I would say that chances for snowfall for areas closer to the coastal plain, would be if that atmospheric flow ripple tracks farther north a bit through PA, (please see the 06Z FV3 and 12km NAM), instead of crashing against the West Virginia rocky towers. Whatever moisture that avoids West Virginia, should make it eastward through Maryland and southern PA much better structured.

This.

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13 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

It´s impressive how so close, 2.5 days out more or less, there´s still model spread.

Some of them maintain a better-structured precipitation canopy after crossing the mountains. Others, on the other hand, all but dissipate the canopy.

May be a case that if the precipitation shield tracks over West Virginia, the west facing slopes of the high mountains there squeeze out almost all the moisture and dump it all there. Then, there is not much for the weak energy to lift again on the east side of the mountains for the eastern regions closer to the coast over VA, Maryland, southern PA and Delmarva, as the downsloping effect on the east side of the mountain and the very cold dry air combined become too much of a challenge for that weak energy to overcome and possibly lift whatever moisture it musters for the near coastal plain areas.

I would say that chances for snowfall for areas closer to the coastal plain, would be if that atmospheric flow ripple tracks farther north a bit through PA, (please see the 06Z FV3 and 12km NAM), instead of crashing against the West Virginia rocky towers. Whatever moisture that avoids West Virginia, should make it eastward through Maryland and southern PA much better structured.

Well written pal, on POINT

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A few flakes possible but improbable.

S. Holmes

 

 

B26C64EC-8F44-4B04-AF3C-EEF148544DC2.png

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Just a clipper but I'll take my 2-3". Pittsburgh NWS not too excited about it.

 

Quote

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather should continue through the evening as high pressure
slides E. A fast moving shortwave should return snow to the area
late tonight through part of Friday. Generally expected one to
three inches of snow S of I 80. The PA, WV, and MD ridges could
see 3 to 6, which would require an eventual Winter Weather
Advisory. Will maintain a mention of this in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook for now per coordination with surrounding NWS
offices. With this system being an open wave, and with
relatively weak upslope component to the wind, believe some
models may be overdoing qpf and snowfall amounts

 

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NAM wants to give just enough to make tomorrow's commute a mess in the far west 'burbs of the DC/Baltimore metro.  

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_030.gif

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Trending drier with each run east of the mountains to the coast.

Edited by avsguy

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NWS calling for a quick 2-4 inch shot here tomorrow morning so at least something to look forward to before the thaw.

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1 hour ago, lfunk11 said:

Just a clipper but I'll take my 2-3". Pittsburgh NWS not too excited about it.

Still likely the be the second best snowfall of the season and it has potential to be in the top 3 of the past two seasons so far. 

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4 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Still likely the be the second best snowfall of the season and it has potential to be in the top 3 of the past two seasons so far. 

Yes but I eventually want this again some day (2016 storm)

12631441_10153975461788939_8941627353989341278_n.jpg

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On Feb 1st, the light snows will fly over the central Mid-Atlantic.

On Feb 2nd, the light snows will fly over the interior Northeast.

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Quote

 


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
245 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019


OHZ058-059-068-069-PAZ031-075-WVZ003-004-012-021-509-010300-
/O.CAN.KPBZ.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190131T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0011.190201T0400Z-190201T2200Z/
Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Greene-Fayette-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Including the cities of Cambridge, Martins Ferry,
St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Waynesburg, Uniontown,
Wheeling, Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont, and Morgantown
245 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
  expected. Heaviest amounts after midnight through early morning.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Pennsylvania, east central Ohio
  and northern and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

Please report snow or ice by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the
NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh

 

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
245 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019


MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ510>514-010300-
/O.CAN.KPBZ.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190201T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WC.Y.0004.190131T1945Z-190131T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0011.190201T0400Z-190201T2200Z/
Garrett-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette Ridges-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland MD,
Grantsville, Ligonier, Donegal, Champion, Ohiopyle, Coopers Rock,
Kingwood, Bruceton Mills, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Hazelton,
Parsons, Hendricks, Saint George, Davis, Thomas,
and Canaan Valley
245 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EST FRIDAY...

...WIND CHILL WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Wind chills as low as 15 below zero this afternoon. Total
  snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected overnight and
  Friday with locally higher amounts. Greatest accumulations will
  occur after midnight and Friday morning.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Pennsylvania, western Maryland
  and northern West Virginia.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, until 6 PM EST this
  evening. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 11 PM this
  evening to 5 PM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frostbite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

Please report snow or ice by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the
NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh

 

Edited by lfunk11

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haaa feb 2nd ground hog day we get a real forecast lol:forumsmiley1092-1:

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Sterling NWS just issued a winter weather advisory for Central MD for tomorrow

2 hours ago, brodoser1 said:

haaa feb 2nd ground hog day we get a real forecast lol:forumsmiley1092-1:

Lmaoo I love it😂

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