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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

MesoscaleBanding

February 6-??? OV/GL Heavy rains and flooding

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I may be jumping the gun a bit with the risk of this thing getting suppressed, but oh well - we can try to will this one into existence - models are showing multiple waves riding along the boundary left behind by the Feb. 3-5 system...The latest FV3 shows basically no break between the waves. GFS shows a wave on the 6th & then a more suppressed wave on the 7th-8th, though it has been trending more NW with the final wave. FV3 has shown a major wintry solution for the OV for 2 consecutive runs now. Might need to break this into 2 separate threads as the event draws closer. 

 

fv1.png

fv2.png

gfs1.png

gfs2.png

gfs3.png

Edited by MesoscaleBanding

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ICON is on board...This would be an extremely icy solution for some:

 

icon.png

icon1.png

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Wave 1 on the Euro:

 

euro1.png

euro2.png

Edited by MesoscaleBanding

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Looks like a possible weak wave 2 on the Euro - hard to tell without precip maps

 

euro3.png

euro4.png

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Wow lock in the Fv3! A broken clock is right twice a day, FV3 give it to us!

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Been meaning to make a thread for this but figured if I waited and ignored this it would turn into a big storm haha

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I would've expected more after initially seeing the run and not so much rain

9-km ECMWF USA Cities United States Precip Type & MSLP.gif

Edited by ohiobuckeye45
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Definitely has my interest. The FV3 would be amazing but it's all just fantasy at this point. 

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18z FV3 is interesting...Front stays stationary for about 48 hours with 3 distinct waves riding up...

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Major changes on the 18z GEFS...top image is the 6z run, 2nd image is the 18z - stark difference!

 

gefs1.png

gefs2.png

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Our local Mets, just showed the next week and it only showed 40’s and 50’s for temps! How is that if the models show otherwise?

im confused! 

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20 minutes ago, Indygirl said:

Our local Mets, just showed the next week and it only showed 40’s and 50’s for temps! How is that if the models show otherwise?

im confused! 

They won't change anything until they're sure.

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Keep in mind....storms always look bad (or great) when they first appear. Everyone should know by now things are not going to be that way in the end.

I'm sure you can imagine if local mets told the public what the models were showing, the stores would constantly be void of bread and milk, lol.

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Latest FV3 showing some pretty severe ice potential along/NW of wherever the frontal boundary ends up setting up on Thurs./Fri.

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3 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Latest FV3 showing some pretty severe ice potential along/NW of wherever the frontal boundary ends up setting up on Thurs./Fri.

I love it when the globals go nutz with icing.  They should almost remove ZR from their precip type algorithm :)

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Definitely something here worth watching - just really curious how this all evolves, because right now it's a huge cluster of lol

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CLE makes mention of the possibility.

Quote

The surface low will bring another round of precipitation to the local area Tuesday through Thursday. Rain/snow line could possibly bisect the local area from west to east across the area as warmer air hangs up to the south. Then, colder air starts to push into the area Thursday behind the low pressure system.

A bit of a reflection starting to show up on the Day 7 WPC outlook.

F9321793-D5E3-4F25-B8F9-EA887EB93552.png

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4 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

CLE makes mention of the possibility.

A bit of a reflection starting to show up on the Day 7 WPC outlook.

F9321793-D5E3-4F25-B8F9-EA887EB93552.png

This does have the classic look of a significant ice event with cold air undercutting warm air & several disturbances riding along the boundary. I think ice will be the bigger story than snowfall with this one. Hard to tell where at this point though.

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5 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

This does have the classic look of a significant ice event with cold air undercutting warm air & several disturbances riding along the boundary. I think ice will be the bigger story than snowfall with this one. Hard to tell where at this point though.

I’ll be happy with at least getting a winter-like feel back after this upcoming thaw.

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0z Euro Control

 

Screenshot_20190201-082729.jpg

Screenshot_20190201-082805.jpg

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Mentioned by the local offices briefly.

DTX

Temperatures return to the 30s Tuesday/Wednesday as colder air
settles back into the region in the wake of the Monday system. By
late Wednesday night into Thursday, the precipitation forecast
become rather mottled as medium range models vary in placement of
baroclinic zone along which a significant Pacific shortwave rides
into the region along southern edge of next area of arctic air. So,
while the chance of precipitation looks appreciable on/around Thu,
precipitation type in any given location of southern lower Michigan
remains very much in question at that time frame.

GRR

Larger medium range guidance discrepancies make for a lower
confidence forecast for midweek. Overall medium range guidance
trends show potential for a low pressure system to potentially
bring a wintry mix of pcpn by Wed/Thur.

LOT:

Models continue to advertise another system Tuesday into Thursday
next week. Appears there will be the potential for mixed precip
across at least part of the forecast area as warming occurs aloft
atop shallow colder near-surface layer. Seasonably colder air
looks to spread back in behind that system, though model solutions
do show some diverging signals by days 6-7.

KIW: 

Temps will cool back to more seasonable levels behind the system but another wave will move in towards the
end of the period with a quick warm up possible for parts of the
area depending on final track of the system.

CLE:

The surface low will bring another round of precipitation to the local area Tuesday
through Thursday.  Rain/snow line could possibly bisect the local
area from west to east across the area as warmer air hangs up to the
south.  Then, colder air starts to push into the area Thursday
behind the low pressure system.
Edited by MidMichiganWX

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12z GFS has 3 waves...As of now, wave 2 looks to be the strongest

 

storm1.png

storm2.png

storm3.png

storm4.png

storm5.png

storm6.png

storm7.png

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