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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

MesoscaleBanding

February 6-??? OV/GL Heavy rains and flooding

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Boy, is it going to be wet around here.  I'm quite cool with keeping any potential ZR to my north..Or south.

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12Z CMC is scary for portions for eastern Indiana and northern portions of Ohio. Thankfully much will change before .

 

zr_acc.us_mw.png

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I hope im just being too pesimistic on the setup...pac jet defiinitely not QUITE like December and would only take a slight move of the trough east to bring the region in to the fun and games. Or presumably a shift E/SE in the SE ridge...which I guess those would go hand in hand

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11 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

12Z CMC is scary for portions for eastern Indiana and northern portions of Ohio. Thankfully much will change before .

 

zr_acc.us_mw.png

Before even reading, i knew whatmodel it was from the image alome. Canadian always loves the ice. We'd have been through prpbably 10 ice storms over the past 5 years had it been correct. Not saying ice won't occur somewhere  ut the CMC would be the last model I used for guidance.

 

That said, that would be an alarming event if such occurred. I have been telling people the past few years we are due for an ice storm. Every yearwe go without one it puts us that much closer to when it happens.

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Nice SE shift on 12z suite :classic_smile:

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Just now, WeatherMonger said:

Before even reading, i knew whatmodel it was from the image alome. Canadian always loves the ice. We'd have been through prpbably 10 ice storms over the past 5 years had it been correct. Not saying ice won't occur somewhere  ut the CMC would be the last model I used for guidance.

 

That said, that would be an alarming event if such occurred. I have been telling people the past few years we are due for an ice storm. Every yearwe go without one it puts us that much closer to when it happens.

GFS & FV3 have both been showing similar severe ice scenarios though. The setup certainly looks correct for some areas of our region to see a decent ice storm in this time period.

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3 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

GFS & FV3 have both been showing similar severe ice scenarios though. The setup certainly looks correct for some areas of our region to see a decent ice storm in this time period.

I agree, just stating the CMC usually way overdoes ice.  Not saying it is incorrect, but past situations prompt me to laugh at it. Still a long way to go though.

 

Anyone know if the Euro offers ZR maps? I don't recall ever really seeing one.

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I wish modeling had a good built in algorithm for showing ice accretion. They try to show how much precip falls as ZR but not how much actually can accumulate on various surfaces. So many variable to be covered with accretion, I do not see this happening for a long time.

1 minute ago, WeatherMonger said:

I agree, just stating the CMC usually way overdoes ice.  Not saying it is incorrect, but past situations prompt me to laugh at it. Still a long way to go though.

 

Anyone know if the Euro offers ZR maps? I don't recall ever really seeing one.

They do have such maps....

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Nope nope nope, keep this north, I'll take the rain and the warmer weather. I don't even want to see half the ice the Canadian shows. 

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3 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

12Z CMC is scary for portions for eastern Indiana and northern portions of Ohio. Thankfully much will change before .

 

zr_acc.us_mw.png

That needs to disappear in a hurry haha.😵No no no. I went through one up here in 07' or 08' I believe. Around 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch of accretion had trees exploding in the breeze that followed. Amazingly beautiful site as the sun rises but wouldn't wish that on anybody.

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5 hours ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

I hope im just being too pesimistic on the setup...pac jet defiinitely not QUITE like December and would only take a slight move of the trough east to bring the region in to the fun and games. Or presumably a shift E/SE in the SE ridge...which I guess those would go hand in hand

must fight it, must fight it, must fight it 

 

10 day ECM snow map

1.png

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This is one time I truly hope my spot in the bullseye does NOT verify.

 

I want NO  part of 1 1/2 inches of freezing rain.

 

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34 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

must fight it, must fight it, must fight it 

 

10 day ECM snow map

1.png

Yeah, ECM is showing a deeper, stronger low, but way north. 

Curious to see which of these solution verifies. 

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These winter precip outlook maps from the WPC continue to bounce around the last few days.  The latest set only shows something significant in the Upper Lakes/MW on Thurs/Fri. 

1658B31D-FB6E-4261-9593-67A0B058D630.gif

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Outside of some FROPA  snows on Friday,  this thread's time frame is looking like a lost cause for much of the Forum. Looks like our chances increase next week with multiple shots at getting in on some winter weather action.

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54 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Outside of some FROPA  snows on Friday,  this thread's time frame is looking like a lost cause for much of the Forum. Looks like our chances increase next week with multiple shots at getting in on some winter weather action.

Winter seems to be on life support for now. Would love to see some mid-late good snow in the lower OV.

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I feel like this encapsulates winter 2018-2019 to date for the lower OHV. We are the blue guy, the models are the medics.

life-support-1010.gif

Edited by NKYSnowLover
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2 hours ago, NWOhioWeatherWatcher said:

First time poster here, does anyone have the updated ZR maps for NW Ohio for this storm? 

NAM through 84

zr_acc.us_mw.png

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3 hours ago, NWOhioWeatherWatcher said:

First time poster here, does anyone have the updated ZR maps for NW Ohio for this storm? 

Welcome!  From Toledo myself!

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Going to be a lot of rain over the OH Valley starting midweek. Melting snowpack to the north won't help things dowstream.

 

1296124225_p168i(1).gif.f5bdb5096727dfa7f3dab944ffccb586.gif

 

 

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ILX has issued a Hydrologic Statement

 

Quote

Hydrologic Outlook
ILC017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-057-079-095-
101-107-113-115-123-125-129-137-139-143-147-159-167-169-171-173-
175-179-183-203-041000-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
337 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019

...Heavy Rainfall Likely This Week...

An active weather pattern will bring several storm systems through
the region over the next few days. The first will produce
relatively light amounts of rainfall late tonight into Monday.
After that, two additional systems will bring heavier rainfall
Wednesday and Thursday. Early projections suggest storm total
rainfall through Thursday may range from around three quarters of
an inch along and north of a Macomb to Normal line...to as much as
2 to 3 inches along and south of I-70.

This rainfall, combined with the recent snow melt, will lead to
significant rises on area creeks, streams, and rivers. In
addition, rain falling on frozen ground could produce excess run-
off and result in flooding of fields and low-lying areas. Please
stay abreast of the latest forecast...especially if you live along
a river or in other flood-prone locations.

 

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