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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

MesoscaleBanding

February 6-??? OV/GL Heavy rains and flooding

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Tonight must be a special night for Tony Romo... he finally made it to a Super Bowl.

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Where ice still persists at that time, ice jams and the associated flooding may be an issue as well. 

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I was standing outside in the sun today with just a (black) tshirt and I was getting very warm. Crazy weather.

CHASANk.png

On the other hand, a former fellow Meteorology student here who is now a TV Meteorologist in South Dakota has been posted about how warm it's been and how cold it's turned--completely opposite of what we're experiencing here. It's interesting.

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Welp, this thread was a bust. 

This heat wave has taken all of my winter away. I was hoping to get a little bit of snow out of this, but that's looking incredibly unlikely. 

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Just now, chicagosnow said:

Welp, this thread was a bust. 

This heat wave has taken all of my winter away. I was hoping to get a little bit of snow out of this, but that's looking incredibly unlikely. 

I'd rather have no snow than the ZR that NW Ohio is going to get. :(

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3 minutes ago, NWOhioWeatherWatcher said:

I'd rather have no snow than the ZR that NW Ohio is going to get. :(

The ice is going to be pretty minimal in most places and even if it isn't, temps will warm up above freezing quickly. There's nothing to be concerned about, imo. 

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Local mets are saying around 1/4 inch before commute. North into Michigan could see more, but for us, around 1/4 inch. Makes for a not so pleasant morning for most. 

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6 minutes ago, chicagosnow said:

Welp, this thread was a bust. 

This heat wave has taken all of my winter away. I was hoping to get a little bit of snow out of this, but that's looking incredibly unlikely. 

You had your block of 3 weeks. Now it's back to normal winter.

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Just now, Cary67 said:

You had your block of 3 weeks. Now it's back to normal winter.

You act as if 3 weeks is sufficient. It's not. 

 

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3 minutes ago, NWOhioWeatherWatcher said:

Local mets are saying around 1/4 inch before commute. North into Michigan could see more, but for us, around 1/4 inch. Makes for a not so pleasant morning for most. 

Temps will be marginal, road temps will be even more marginal and most models aren't showing Toledo with that much ice. A quarter of an inch isn't enough to do any damage to trees really. 

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On the warm side of this storm, lots of rain potential in many areas.  Current QPF plumes at the airport just to the south.

image.thumb.png.8c641876faff2932839dba69e1f2ec7f.png

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who rewound the tape to December? Can't wait to have the flooding rains back on top of flooded now frozen ground from said December....I missed them last month, also said no one ever.

Edited by ohiobuckeye45
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10 minutes ago, chicagosnow said:

You act as if 3 weeks is sufficient. It's not. 

 

I am not saying its sufficient in terms of my hopes or wishes.  It's just the reality of our climo here. The idea we can build a snow pack and sustain it for several months in what we consider meteorological winter just isn't reasonable. We rely mostly on synoptic snow and that relies on patterns lining up well to create that.ie storm track ,will there be enough cold air at just the right time with the right track. The climo you need is to live in LES areas like Buffalo, UP MI, NW lower Mi.Interior northern New England. Or in the mountains. In special years all the right conditions come together sustained cold, just the right combination of teleconnections to give you a blockbuster winter. They refer to those winters nostalgically. Ahh.. remember those late 70's winters or the winter of 2013-2014. We all want those winters; problem is they happen on average about once every 20 yrs. My guess is we still have more snow left to fall. We are already at seasonal averages  for the year at ORD and above it at RFD. Granted the loop has been short changed in the snow department but living near the lake is a double edged sword. You get the lake enhancement but also the lake warmth in terms of precip type issues.We could end up with 50+" this year but that comes in blocks of winter surrounded by large amts of time of blah weather. 

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6 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

I am not saying its sufficient in terms of my hopes or wishes.  It's just the reality of our climo here. The idea we can build a snow pack and sustain it for several months in what we consider meteorological winter just isn't reasonable. We rely mostly on synoptic snow and that relies on patterns lining up well to create that.ie storm track ,will there be enough cold air at just the right time with the right track. The climo you need is to live in LES areas like Buffalo, UP MI, NW lower Mi.Interior northern New England. Or in the mountains. In special years all the right conditions come together sustained cold, just the right combination of teleconnections to give you a blockbuster winter. They refer to those winters nostalgically. Ahh.. remember those late 70's winters or the winter of 2013-2014. We all want those winters; problem is they happen on average about once every 20 yrs. My guess is we still have more snow left to fall. We are already at seasonal averages  for the year at ORD and above it at RFD. Granted the loop has been short changed in the snow department but living near the lake is a double edged sword. You get the lake enhancement but also the lake warmth in terms of precip type issues.We could end up with 50+" this year but that comes in blocks of winter surrounded by large amts of time of blah weather. 

I understand all of that - still doesn't keep me from being bummed that the Thursday system isn't going to bring any snow. 

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2/4 12Z NAM Total Preip

image.thumb.png.f67d52552319e5c275f1a35d6f238f3b.png

Edited by RobB
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46 minutes ago, RobB said:

2/4 12Z NAM Total Preip

image.thumb.png.f67d52552319e5c275f1a35d6f238f3b.png

This is what this is going to be like with all of the potholes now.

SfkFI22.gif

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2/4 12Z GFS 4 day rain total missed this thread.

 

image.thumb.png.bfeab443a7531cf43f8e592bab196e0b.png

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I see that there is a heavy rain thread during this period.  I'll post those related images there...

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Looks like this will cut pretty far west and the NAM is the current outlier. Winter canceled for this week, at least. 

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3 hours ago, RobB said:

2/4 12Z NAM Total Preip

image.thumb.png.f67d52552319e5c275f1a35d6f238f3b.png

Thats quite a bit of precip. I dislike Lake Erie though. Something about it really throws our weather off around here year round. Add in the heat island effect and we always seem to have lower qpf totals with large scale systems.  Plus it's always green during the summer and limits severe parameters. 

 

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HWO From DTX:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

It appears increasingly likely that light freezing rain will impact
parts of the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Although
most of southern MI may see this freezing rain, the heaviest
precipitation looks to be confined to area along and south of the
I-94 corridor. While some uncertainty remains, it appears that around
a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation will be possible for
locations south of I-69, and between one to two tenths south of the
I-94 corridor.

A second round of light freezing rain will be possible Wednesday
night into Thursday.

I detest ice storms.......although this wouldn't be full-fledged ice-mageddon, .2 is more than plenty for hazardous driving conditions.

 

 

 

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