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Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

MesoscaleBanding

February 6-??? OV/GL Heavy rains and flooding

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Already got 1.2” of rain today and we still have a lot of rain coming.

867E17E8-5CBF-4979-B6F2-45559EA9C54C.png

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Had some ponding in the backyard this morning. That ground is definitely saturated.

Suns a shining currently though 

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I've been getting pummeled all day....

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No surprise here, CLE issues a Flood Watch for its forecast area.

Quote
Flood Watch
 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
325 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...Moderate to Heavy Rain Expected Thursday Elevating Flood
Risk...

.Rain with embedded thunderstorms will move into the area
Thursday through Thursday evening. Saturated ground and already
elevated rivers and streams will heighten the risk for flooding.
Additionally, the potential for localized ice jams on area creeks
and rivers will continue into Thursday. Rain may briefly mix with
or change to snow before ending Thursday night.

OHZ009-010-019-020-027>031-036>038-047-070430-
/O.NEW.KCLE.FA.A.0002.190207T0900Z-190208T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie-Lorain-Huron-Medina-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Including the cities of Sandusky, Lorain, Norwalk, Medina,
Upper Sandusky, Bucyrus, Mansfield, Ashland, Wooster, Marion,
Mount Gilead, Millersburg, and Mount Vernon
325 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of north central Ohio, northeast
  Ohio, and northwest Ohio, including the following areas, in
  north central Ohio, Ashland, Crawford, Erie, Huron, Knox,
  Lorain, Marion, Morrow, and Richland. In northeast Ohio,
  Holmes, Medina, and Wayne. In northwest Ohio, Wyandot.

* From late tonight through late Thursday night

* Moderate to heavy rainfall with showers and isolated
  thunderstorms will bring up to one to two inches of additional
  rain to the region. Saturated grounds and elevated rivers and
  streams in advance of the rain have elevated the flood risk.

* River Flooding will be likely. Flooding of low lying and poor
  drainage areas are likely to flood. This may result in driving
  difficulties or even possible road closures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch is issued when there is a potential for flooding.
Monitor the forecast and remain alert for possible flood
warnings. Those in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to
take action should a flood warning be issued or if flooding
develops.

&&

 

Edited by Hiramite

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Finally heard some Thunder for the first time simce early December. Odd walking outside and seeing your breathe with thunder.

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20 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Finally heard some Thunder for the first time simce early December. Odd walking outside and seeing your breathe with thunder.

ILX has Thunderstorms in the forecast tonight hopefully we get a few good boomers

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Got more rain probably heading for Ohio that's in SE IL. Now that the rain has stopped, we got 1.63" today. 

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1 hour ago, Central Illinois said:

ILX has Thunderstorms in the forecast tonight hopefully we get a few good boomers

I’m hoping for some boomers too bro. Didn’t catch the thunder and lightning this morning. I want to hear some constant thunder.

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2 hours ago, WeatherMonger said:

Finally heard some Thunder for the first time simce early December. Odd walking outside and seeing your breathe with thunder.

That was me last night, 33°F when the first clap of thunder came through. Crazy weather!

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I would greatly appreciate if you kept these on your side of the Appalachians! :classic_laugh:! Resist the invasion!

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.thumb.png.634d8b85ad4b54ef79c9405245817ac4.png

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3 minutes ago, Solstice said:

I would greatly appreciate if you kept these on your side of the Appalachians! :classic_laugh:! Resist the invasion!

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.thumb.png.634d8b85ad4b54ef79c9405245817ac4.png

Oh God this makes me itch. 

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2 hours ago, Solstice said:

I would greatly appreciate if you kept these on your side of the Appalachians! :classic_laugh:! Resist the invasion!

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.thumb.png.634d8b85ad4b54ef79c9405245817ac4.png

 

2 hours ago, Ingyball said:

Oh God this makes me itch. 

Now that's a "low party".

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image.png.e060b85188afcb8c7db208458669ad6c.png

Quote

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0037
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
928 AM EST Thu Feb 07 2019

Areas affected...Far Southeast MO...Southern IL...Central/Southern
IN...West-Central/Southwest OH...Far Western to Northern KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071425Z - 072025Z

Summary...A band of heavy showers and thunderstorms will produce
concerns for flash flooding over the next several hours involving
the OH River Valley as a cold front approaches from the west.

Discussion...Low pressure will be strengthening this morning as it
lifts northeast across southeast MO and through areas of
central/southern IL going through 18Z. This will allow for a
strong surge of warm air and moisture transport up across the
broader OH River Valley region going into the early afternoon
hours. The associated upper trough ejecting across the
central/northern Plains and upper Midwest will begin to take on a
negative tilt and will allow for stronger height falls/forcing to
advance farther east and overlap with the aforementioned axis of
strong warm air advection and moisture transport. In fact, the
latest GOES-16 10.3 micron/IR satellite imagery shows an expansive
axis of enhanced upper level divergence with embedded cold
convective tops extending along and ahead of a cold front from
central/northern AR northeast up across southeast MO and southern
IL.

The latest RAP analysis in conjunction with area VWP data shows a
southwest low level jet of 50 to 60+ kts nosing up toward the
lower OH Valley over the last couple of hours ahead of the front.
This is contributing to 850 mb moisture flux anomalies of 5+
standard deviations above normal, with PWAT values of 1.5 to 1.6
inches which are over 3 standard deviations above normal. This
will lead to highly efficient rainfall processes for enhanced
rainfall rates that may reach as much as 1.5 inches/hr. The
transport of 500 to 1000 j/kg of MUCAPE across the lower OH Valley
will also facilitate these heavier rainfall rates.

The latest HRRR guidance and 00Z/06Z HREF suite of guidance may be
tending to focus its heavier rainfall axis through 18Z a little
too far north based on the latest radar trends. However, they
agree on a signal for repeating showers/thunderstorms over the
next several hours, with the convection likely becoming a bit more
organized given the stronger upstream forcing arriving and
aforementioned moisture transport.

Expect as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain through the early
afternoon hours across areas of southeast MO, southern IL,
central/southern IN and perhaps edging into west-central or
southwest OH by 18Z or shortly thereafter. Some locally heavier
amounts to near 5 inches cannot be ruled out. Runoff concerns will
be growing with time, and flash flooding in some areas will become
likely where more narrowly aligned bands of convection tend to
repeat over the same.

Orrison

 

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2 hours ago, RobB said:

image.png.e060b85188afcb8c7db208458669ad6c.png

 

Whew... that'll be fun come quitting time later today.

Expect as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain through the early
afternoon hours across areas of southeast MO, southern IL,
central/southern IN and perhaps edging into west-central or
southwest OH by 18Z or shortly thereafter. Some locally heavier
amounts to near 5 inches cannot be ruled out.
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Yesterday had a total of 1.4 inches of rain with a few thunder claps before dawn.

Checking in now at lunch with 1.5 inches of rain imby so far, and some thunder. Under a flood warning at the moment, so far it hasn't been a flash flooding issue yet.    Northern Morgan County Indiana.  53 on my thermometer. Drove through a couple of places where creeks are just over the road a little bit.  Smells like Spring, worms and dirt, Boy is it muddy! 

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Just added 2 tenths of an inch in the 20 minutes I was at the house. 1.7 total. 

20190207_123228.jpg

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Been coming down here most of the day. A lot of standing water on my way to work around 12. Had to quickly switch lanes at one point due to my car getting submerged in water from runoff of a large hill.

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had some very heavy rain and wind bout 30 minutes ago... as that line moved through. Lot of standing water on the roadways. Be careful everyone 

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Looking west and seeing the rain yet to come. Been a soggy couple days.

 

Should be over by 8 I’d say but then the winds are to kick up and the with the crashing temps might actually see a flash freeze tonight.

Edited by Snow_____

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Retention pond next to my house is at the highest its been in a while.

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I have no idea how threads work anymore, so I'll post it here.

 

Windy SOB out there right now. Would not be surprised to see some 50mph+ gusts come in

 

Screenshot_20190207-170857_Chrome.thumb.jpg.ef828f188ad17f919256f43db99c716a.jpg

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Left work at 5pm, jeep thermometer said 57 degrees , 5 minutes driving west and it was down to 42, 6pm now and outside home thermometer at 39. It was a very windy drive , saw several trash containers blowing into the road, and also two large heavy duty "road closed" construction fence barricades  that had sandbags for weighing them down, completely blown over flat.  This came through as a very narrow gusty band of horizontal blowing rain that formed just to my west after the main rain event had stopped and the temps surged to 59 degrees and the sky had lightened up almost enough to see a touch of sun. That warm calm break lasted maybe 45 minutes and then the cold front cut loose.   It's not snow, too bad.. but at least I am entertained by all weather, the more dynamic the better.  Well almost all weather, except for drought, heatwaves, and ice storms, those really stress me out. 

Might be a lot of flash freezing and slick spots to deal with tonight , and also with all of the rain and mud, soft ground and wind, there may be some trees coming down causing power issues,  so hope everyone is careful and stays safe :) 

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Oh wow, didn't realize the frontal rain was going to train over me. Thought it was gonna be more progressive so I left my umbrella in my apartment before I left for the library. Looks like I'm gonna be stuck for a bit.

Edit: Wunderground better not be right that it's gonna end around 11...............

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