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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

shaulov4

February 10-11, 2019 | Winter Storm

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image.png.eed7232371cf6bc44b5d16efa6327090.png

18Z GFS Improving, more consolidated but the low scoots out to sea after this frame.

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Note about southern sliders and SE ridge. We may need to take a hit with one ( I can only imagine the whining if this goes south though ), to beat down that ridge. Seriously, it would help quite a bit.

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28 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Please provide proof to back up your statement. Prove to the postets and readers that for a fact until the end of winter all snow will be a nuisance storm and that winter cannot salvaged.

Failure to do so may put you in the ice box for a while.

Bittercasting is not well seen in here.

I'm not usually one to support his type of post, but I don't think he's making a forecast or for that matter a bittercast. 

Maybe his post is better suited to a different thread, but all he's saying is he's done with winter and ready for warmth and golf. From his perspective, a big late season Nor'Easter would be a nuisance. 

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie
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10 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

I'm not usually one to support his type of post, but I don't think he's making a forecast or for that matter a bittercast. 

Maybe his post is better suited to a different thread, but all he's saying is he's done with winter and ready for warmth and golf. From his perspective, a big late season Nor'Easter would be a nuisance. 

It's the sum of the parts. 

Here there and everywhere.

Keep paying attention to the posts untill the end of winter and you will agree.

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3 hours ago, Snobal said:

Looks like  another   New  England  event  to me.  we  need  separate threads for  New England and Mid- Atlantic 

Why split up a potential storm that  is over a week away?!! make no sense at this point. 

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The fv3 is literally best case scenario.  

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7 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

The fv3 is literally best case scenario.  

WOW!!! yeah the 18Z FV3-GFS hammers portions of NY Hudson Valley & Western Conn. Certainly will keep tabs on this potential.

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?

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Not sure why I feel like I have to be the cheerleader in here, as many are all gloom and doom and feel like nothing will change, winter is over. Models are flipping widely (see today with 2 models), and as I posted in long range this winter is by no means over. Don't rely on long range predictions, don't dwell over the Euro weeklies cuz they have been AWFUL outside of one week - in fact many times the opposite has happened. February is our best month, and there are signs that after this week we take a turn for the better. Yea, it is touch and go and could go either way, but we definitely will see colder air to the north, and a real active STJ. So IF we can get the colder air to push far enough south, it could be a very fun period for snow lovers the 2nd half Feb into March. IF any blocking show up at all, even muted, then it really is game on. SE ridge is not the end all, and in some cases can help.

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3 minutes ago, RTC2 said:

Not sure why I feel like I have to be the cheerleader in here, as many are all gloom and doom and feel like nothing will change, winter is over. Models are flipping widely (see today with 2 models), and as I posted in long range this winter is by no means over. Don't rely on long range predictions, don't dwell over the Euro weeklies cuz they have been AWFUL outside of one week - in fact many times the opposite has happened. February is our best month, and there are signs that after this week we take a turn for the better. Yea, it is touch and go and could go either way, but we definitely will see colder air to the north, and a real active STJ. So IF we can get the colder air to push far enough south, it could be a very fun period for snow lovers the 2nd half Feb into March. IF any blocking show up at all, even muted, then it really is game on. SE ridge is not the end all, and in some cases can help.

Great post.  I think everyone is just extremely frustrated with how things have transpired so far, especially for the i95.   The euro and fv3 show a decent system for this timeframe so it’s looking pretty good for something to happen 

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Am flying out of JFK for a long-overdue vacation in Cayman Isles on the 12th in the A.M.  Hoping whatever hits holds off till I get out!!!

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1 hour ago, RTC2 said:

Not sure why I feel like I have to be the cheerleader in here, as many are all gloom and doom and feel like nothing will change, winter is over. Models are flipping widely (see today with 2 models), and as I posted in long range this winter is by no means over. Don't rely on long range predictions, don't dwell over the Euro weeklies cuz they have been AWFUL outside of one week - in fact many times the opposite has happened. February is our best month, and there are signs that after this week we take a turn for the better. Yea, it is touch and go and could go either way, but we definitely will see colder air to the north, and a real active STJ. So IF we can get the colder air to push far enough south, it could be a very fun period for snow lovers the 2nd half Feb into March. IF any blocking show up at all, even muted, then it really is game on. SE ridge is not the end all, and in some cases can help.

I'm with ya! Canada will undoubtedly be cold enough for snow. Er, I mean there will definitely be alot of moisture along the warm Mason Dixon. Er, I mean, the coast will definately have some type of precip. Eh screw it.

Give me an S! 

Give me an N! 

Give me an O! 

Give me a W! 

What's that spell?! @Snobal  @Snobal  @Snobal!

Wait. Nvm. I'm gonna walk away now. *Tucks hands in pants while whistling* who needs to spell when you're a cheerleader anyway. *Kicks can*

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Lots of spread with this one, continued split flow, yada yada. But also petty good potential.  

19021300_0500.gif.6216762b6d486c84e0a694caf8444edb.gif

19021400_0500.gif.10ab64311554ad08581757d780711e73.gif

 

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Folks, we cannot be talking about two storms in this thread. The thread starter post does not discuss or present the storm occurring from February 12-14. It presents the storm occurring on February 11-12, which right now given the timing forecasted by the models occurs only on the 11th of February.

The thread specifies February 11-12. Hence, that is the first storm, not a February 12-14 storm.

Until we get a better picture of the time frame concerning the time, the thread should be discussing the first storm. If a few days later we see that it will all be the same storm altogether, then it´s cool. If not, then there will be one storm in this thread and then the other storm for another thread, as right now they look to be two totally distinct entities.

The one below is for this thread.

300368527_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNortheastUSPrecipTypeMSLP156.thumb.png.1a1280760caa03011631689d206b3f73.pngfv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png.7e29ad2c3f4b0c3ed50b4dc4e89a1528.png

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9 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Folks, we cannot be talking about two storms in this thread.

The thread specifies February 11-12. Hence, that is the first storm.

Until we get a better picture of the time frame, the thread should be discussing the first storm. If a few days later we see that it will all be the same storm, then it´s cool. If not, then there will be one storm in the thread and then the other storm for another thread, as right now they look to be two totally distinct entities.

The one below:

300368527_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNortheastUSPrecipTypeMSLP156.thumb.png.1a1280760caa03011631689d206b3f73.pngfv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png.7e29ad2c3f4b0c3ed50b4dc4e89a1528.png

my fault.  I deleted.  That's what you get when you wake up at 4am

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06Z FV3 GFS:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh138-156.thumb.gif.616b858c0c18c6f388a2f785d2f352f0.gif

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9 hours ago, RTC2 said:

Not sure why I feel like I have to be the cheerleader in here, as many are all gloom and doom and feel like nothing will change, winter is over. Models are flipping widely (see today with 2 models), and as I posted in long range this winter is by no means over. Don't rely on long range predictions, don't dwell over the Euro weeklies cuz they have been AWFUL outside of one week - in fact many times the opposite has happened. February is our best month, and there are signs that after this week we take a turn for the better. Yea, it is touch and go and could go either way, but we definitely will see colder air to the north, and a real active STJ. So IF we can get the colder air to push far enough south, it could be a very fun period for snow lovers the 2nd half Feb into March. IF any blocking show up at all, even muted, then it really is game on. SE ridge is not the end all, and in some cases can help.

Forget the models for a second and look at the teleconnections.  They simply aren't favorable right now for major East Coast Storms.  It doesn't appear to me that this is going to improve by months end.   So we are already behind the eight ball from that perspective.  

However most on here are more doom and gloom because they have a in my back yard mentality and don't really understand the details.  VA is right now schedule with its annual snowfall, so not all mid Atlantic is suffering a snow drought. This board scared away the good producers of insightfulness.

Like I've said many times in the past be patient and I bet ya there is a big one coming between now and early march.

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Folks, we cannot be talking about two storms in this thread. The thread starter post does not discuss or present the storm occurring from February 12-14. It presents the storm occurring on February 11-12, which right now given the timing forecasted by the models occurs only on the 11th of February.

The thread specifies February 11-12. Hence, that is the first storm, not a February 12-14 storm.

Until we get a better picture of the time frame concerning the time, the thread should be discussing the first storm. If a few days later we see that it will all be the same storm altogether, then it´s cool. If not, then there will be one storm in this thread and then the other storm for another thread, as right now they look to be two totally distinct entities.

The one below is for this thread.

300368527_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNortheastUSPrecipTypeMSLP156.thumb.png.1a1280760caa03011631689d206b3f73.pngfv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png.7e29ad2c3f4b0c3ed50b4dc4e89a1528.png

 You should just change the dates because it is blatantly obvious which one we are all talking about 12-14.  I don’t even view the first one as a storm....just a showery whatever 

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12 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

 You should just change the dates because it is blatantly obvious which one we are all talking about 12-14.  I don’t even view the first one as a storm....just a showery whatever 

It should not work like this.

Thread starter posts should be respected and taken seriously as the thread, later on, gets featured in the forum´s front page and promoted on the WX Disco social media pages. Simply changing dates will make a thread all confusing to readers. The thread would have part of it talking about a storm presented on the thread opener post and then suddenly it would be talking about another storm that has nothing to do with the reason why the thread was opened.

The thread starter obviously sees the first event, the one for this thread, as something that should be looked at, otherwise, he would not have started a thread for this event. Now, if the event turns sour, it´s part of the game, and we should not just place a different storm in the thread because the original one is not eye catchy or delightful to someone´s backyard.

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55 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

06Z FV3 GFS:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh138-156.thumb.gif.616b858c0c18c6f388a2f785d2f352f0.gif

This particular run of this model shows my area splitting the gap and receiving 0 precipitation. 

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Surprised nobody said anything about the 0Z EURO.   Most of this in the MA falls on the 12th.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020500_204_35_215.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020500_204_485_215.png

Edited by paletitsnow63

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6 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

Surprised nobody said anything about the 0Z EURO.   Most of this in the MA falls on the 12th.

 

 

 

 

It´s because that storm is not the one for which this thread was started, Therefore, the posts about that storm are off-topic.

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