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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

shaulov4

February 10-11, 2019 | Winter Storm

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19 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

Surprised nobody said anything about the 0Z EURO.   Most of this in the MA falls on the 12th.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020500_204_35_215.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020500_204_485_215.png

Everyone go here...here’s the system we’re all talking about.  Not sure what is going on, so I created the proper thread.

https://wxdisco.com/forums/topic/859-february-12-14-2019-winter-storm/

Edited by PA road DAWG

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16 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

Please provide proof to back up your statement. Prove to the posters and readers that for a fact until the end of winter all snow will be a nuisance storm and that winter cannot be salvaged.

Failure to do so may put you in the icebox for a while.

Bittercasting is not well seen in here.

This brings us in ct to the 13 of February 30% chances of snow are nuisance snow maybe  a dusting slick up the roads . And one big snow storm all snow doesn’t make up for a snow less two and a half months of winter that’s not bitter casting just fact.  now i am talking about ct 

80F0639B-65F5-49A2-9E62-9537CBCDCB00.png

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16 hours ago, avsguy said:

Always thought we needed to separate Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, but I stopped arguing that years ago :classic_biggrin:

We should 

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2 hours ago, brodoser1 said:

This brings us in ct to the 13 of February 30% chances of snow are nuisance snow maybe  a dusting slick up the roads . And one big snow storm all snow doesn’t make up for a snow less two and a half months of winter that’s not bitter casting just fact.  now i am talking about ct 

80F0639B-65F5-49A2-9E62-9537CBCDCB00.png

So please only speak for CT. All posts that talk about winter is over already and any snows now will be a nuisance, please make sure to talk about your location in CT. What you think and the reality of your location is not what others think and what other locations have experience or will experience until the end of March.

And if until then you happen to get a big snow storm, it would be gracious of you to come to the forum and post about how hasty you were to dismiss the winter.

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I would be the first to come on and say yeahhhhhh we got dumped on but it won’t make up for what could be a snowless 3 moths here 

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Newest GFS coming in slightly colder for overrunning potential out front of the inland tracker.

Edited by avsguy

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3 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

It should not work like this.

Thread starter posts should be respected and taken seriously as the thread, later on, gets featured in the forum´s front page and promoted on the WX Disco social media pages. Simply changing dates will make a thread all confusing to readers. The thread would have part of it talking about a storm presented on the thread opener post and then suddenly it would be talking about another storm that has nothing to do with the reason why the thread was opened.

The thread starter obviously sees the first event, the one for this thread, as something that should be looked at, otherwise, he would not have started a thread for this event. Now, if the event turns sour, it´s part of the game, and we should not just place a different storm in the thread because the original one is not eye catchy or delightful to someone´s backyard.

This is me, but with such a close window, talking about anything near this time is better than talking about one specific event that will likely change days and placements and possibly disappear altogether.  There seem to be far too many threads, that confuses me.

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9 hours ago, brodoser1 said:

We should 

There is no doubt the differences between mid-atlantic and NE can be drastic, but that can go for any region.  What happens in southwest va compared to northern va is often drastically different.  If these forums are divided any more it may really isolate people to forums with little to no activity, like the southeast one.  With some systems SW Va is more in line with the NE, sometimes it is more in line with the southeast, sometimes it is more in line with the Ohio Valley, and sometimes the event turns out to be fairly specific to SW Va, so I appreciate the input from all of the different areas

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10 hours ago, brodoser1 said:

I would be the first to come on and say yeahhhhhh we got dumped on but it won’t make up for what could be a snowless 3 moths here 

aHR0cDovL3d3dy5saXZlc2NpZW5jZS5jb20vaW1h

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The 0z GFS still showing a little something on Monday afternoon around the MD/PA line.  This is a little more juiced up from the 18Z GFS, so perhaps this turns into something a little more.  One thing I've noticed this year is that storms seem to overperform more than expected from what guidance had been showing a few days earlier.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh132_trend.gif

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I'm sure it's the usual suspects declaring winter over based on long term modeling/NAO etc but I'm also sure that's the same group that declared it over in '18 when we recieved 12" the 2nd day of 'Spring" last year- as one poster said, BITTERCASTING is frowned upon, it's February 6th, not March 6th...OldManWinter has spoken and is not through with you yet...not by a long shot

 

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11 minutes ago, OldManWinter66 said:

I'm sure it's the usual suspects declaring winter over based on long term modeling/NAO etc but I'm also sure that's the same group that declared it over in '18 when we recieved 12" the 2nd day of 'Spring" last year- as one poster said, BITTERCASTING is frowned upon, it's February 6th, not March 6th...OldManWinter has spoken and is not through with you yet...not by a long shot

 

March has been the new February in recent years. February has been the new March and January is just terrible

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The Winter is over remarks are over the top cause the rest of the country is getting hammered by Winter. Its just the Eastern seaboard for the most part and like a few have said I. at least, have seen my best snows in March past 4-6 years anyway so patience is the name of the game whether it happens or not.

As for regions I wanted Mid Atlantic/ North East/Northern New England as these areas all have different micro climates and honestly only share in big East coast storms and that we know is a rare event these days.

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23 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

As for regions I wanted Mid Atlantic/ North East/Northern New England as these areas all have different micro climates and honestly only share in big East coast storms and that we all should know is a rare event (period).

Fixed that for ya PM :classic_wink:

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Winter isn’t over by a long shot .. yes looking ahead at temperatures one might say that.. but for my area .. the biggest snows come in February and March .. temperatures need to be ignored when looking ahead because this time of year there’s a ton of energy and dynamics running around and brief cold spells and it just takes timing and a storm to draw in cold from aloft creating its own cold in coastal bombs and dramatically changes the temperatures unforeseen in forecasts .. I seen it be 70 degrees one day and 3 days later... a foot of snow .. fun times ahead I believe and it’s all about timing the ingredients together now 

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7 minutes ago, Jblizz68 said:

Winter isn’t over by a long shot .. yes looking ahead at temperatures one might say that.. but for my area .. the biggest snows come in February and March .. temperatures need to be ignored when looking ahead because this time of year there’s a ton of energy and dynamics running around and brief cold spells and it just takes timing and a storm to draw in cold from aloft creating its own cold in coastal bombs and dramatically changes the temperatures unforeseen in forecasts .. I seen it be 70 degrees one day and 3 days later... a foot of snow .. fun times ahead I believe and it’s all about timing the ingredients together now 

Good point about cold air and dynamics late in the season. We don't need the PV just some marginal cold air and let the dynamics do their thing. Definitely something to look forward to no mater what happens next couple of weeks. Take what we can get right?

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3 hours ago, PlanetMaster said:

The Winter is over remarks are over the top cause the rest of the country is getting hammered by Winter. Its just the Eastern seaboard for the most part and like a few have said I. at least, have seen my best snows in March past 4-6 years anyway so patience is the name of the game whether it happens or not.

As for regions I wanted Mid Atlantic/ North East/Northern New England as these areas all have different micro climates and honestly only share in big East coast storms and that we know is a rare event these days.

well I would think when were on a north east weather forum talking about the  north east

when we say winter sucks this year we are talking about the north east not mid west .

if you were to assume we were talking about other area of the country  then FL always has a sucky winter

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On 2/5/2019 at 9:52 AM, Phased Vort said:

So please only speak for CT. All posts that talk about winter is over already and any snows now will be a nuisance, please make sure to talk about your location in CT. What you think and the reality of your location is not what others think and what other locations have experience or will experience until the end of March.

And if until then you happen to get a big snow storm, it would be gracious of you to come to the forum and post about how hasty you were to dismiss the winter.

I never understood why people think winter is over in early February we still have 6 weeks left. Remember we got a big storm in march last few years! :)

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13 minutes ago, brodoser1 said:

well I would think when were on a north east weather forum talking about the  north east

when we say winter sucks this year we are talking about the north east not mid west .

if you were to assume we were talking about other area of the country  then FL always has a sucky winter

Yeah but MJ in Maine isn't saying that or anyone up North in Vermont or NH so it is a fine line where you draw the North East

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12 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

Yeah but MJ in Maine isn't saying that or anyone up North in Vermont or NH so it is a fine line where you draw the North East

 I'm not sure but there is even a difference  between the north east and new England  according  to some people.  I just always thought of everyone from Maryland up to Maine as mid atlantic-northeast part of country

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7 minutes ago, Winter_warlock said:

 I'm not sure but there is even a difference  between the north east and new England  according  to some people.  I just always thought of everyone from Maryland up to Maine as mid atlantic-northeast part of country

I always thought the north east was NY, CT, R,I MASS, MAINE, VT, NH and personally  push NY out of the new England LOL

AND NJ south was mid Atlantic. trying to think what school was teaching back in the 60s but I purged that stuff that far back LOL

Edited by brodoser1
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22 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

Yeah but MJ in Maine isn't saying that or anyone up North in Vermont or NH so it is a fine line where you draw the North East

up there the winter was pretty good

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Well these pearls from NWS  Sterling

 

Quote

By Sunday Night, high pressure will weaken and slide offshore as a
shortwave disturbance embedded in southwesterly flow aloft
approaches the area. This shortwave will induce some ascent over a
stalled-out, remnant frontal boundary draped across the region. This
may lead to a period of light snow or mixed precipitation Sunday
Night.

Beyond Sunday Night, spread within model guidance (both
deterministic and ensemble) increases substantially. The synoptic
scale flow pattern across North America is extremely complex early
next week, with multiple troughs in relatively close proximity
interacting with one another. Of particular interest will be a
trough moving across Southern Canada on Monday. Forcing for anti-
cyclogenesis in the wake of this feature will have a strong
influence on the strength and positioning of an area of surface high
pressure that will build over Southern Canada on Monday into
Tuesday. The strength and positioning of this high will in turn
influence the eventual positioning of a frontal boundary that may
impact our weather locally. The 12z GFS has a much stronger high
than the 00z Euro, and suppresses the frontal boundary further
south, keeping the bulk of the precipitation Monday through early
Tuesday to the south of the DC metro area. The Euro on the other
hand has a weaker surface high to the north, which allows the
frontal boundary to remain overhead, leading to a prolonged period
of precipitation Monday and through early Tuesday (a fair portion of
which could be wintry in nature).

 

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18Z FV3:

Little snow event there.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh102-120.gif.17cce030f81159b772031b81e3fe2a0e.gif

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0Z ICON still liking a little Monday morning/afternoon snow for the MD/PA line.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png

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