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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

PA road DAWG

February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

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Ok, so to alleviate the confusion i’ll just create this thread.  The models have been hinting at a possible coastal transfer type system for a few days now.  The euro went bonkers last night and shows an obvious best case scenario for a majority of the area from the mid atl up thru the NE.   Beautiful classic banana high up above too   

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Edited by PA road DAWG
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Cranky not liking the euro and jumping on the gfs band wagon.  His thoughts basically mimic the 6z gfs this morning.  He thinks the nor’eaSter the euro shows will instead be a cutter.  

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5 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Cranky not liking the euro and jumping on the gfs band wagon.  His thoughts basically mimic the 6z gfs this morning.  He thinks the nor’eaSter the euro shows will instead be a cutter.  

Fv3 gfs is a little different than the gfs and will see if any other models show or hint on what the euro shows. I’m just thankful that there are 60s showing up. Those talking about the SE ridge and a split flow maybe hard to get a big snow at the moment. I’m not looking at anything here in Felton Delaware but normal temperatures to stay around. Maybe PA and the NE can get a good snow since they have missed out on a big one.

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1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said:

Cranky not liking the euro and jumping on the gfs band wagon.  His thoughts basically mimic the 6z gfs this morning.  He thinks the nor’eaSter the euro shows will instead be a cutter.  

To that effect, here´s the 00Z ECMWF Control:

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif.67c80d5c6f2682700850a45b3778e940.gif

Evident low over the Great Lakes.

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2 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

To that effect, here´s the 00Z ECMWF Control:

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif.67c80d5c6f2682700850a45b3778e940.gif

Evident low over the Great Lakes.

Correct.  However, there’s a very weak coastal transfer taking place.  Occurs in the same spot as the op just not as quick and clean. 

1FD53F16-B427-4CEF-A620-B04B8B60A4FD.png

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2 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Correct.  However, there’s a very weak coastal transfer taking place.  Occurs in the same spot as the op just not as quick and clean. 

1FD53F16-B427-4CEF-A620-B04B8B60A4FD.png

Good to point that out to give posters and lurkers counter arguments and other important details.

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fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

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Again the euro goes boom

91A6FEFE-1629-4BBB-9AD8-3C47ABE34A1B.png

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EURO   still showing  a  NE hit .  need  to get rid of  the  southeast ridge  so  MA  can get some

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12 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Again the euro goes boom

91A6FEFE-1629-4BBB-9AD8-3C47ABE34A1B.png

It needs to go boom to save this winter, hopefully, we can get a few in a row to satisfy everyone's appetite

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12Z EURO takes the primary low all the way into Michigan while secondary forms over Delmarva and moves up the coast.

 

 

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12z gfs not to different at the surface,  except the fact it doesn't pop a secondary until it's too late for most..

The euro also has a stronger Hp in a much better position..

prateptype_cat.conus.png

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Listen up everyone

This is it!

This is the one!!

Stay sharp back there!!!

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It better not be...I'm in Paris for my honeymoon and not back until Friday the 15th.....lolololol. Kidding of course. Id be happy for everyone. Hey..at least id come back to a winter wonderland. Maybe I'll still get to see a storm before Winter is over. 

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12z EPS has a low track from Indianapolis to a double-barrel look with a secondary developing in the Gulf of Maine. I'd love to be wrong, but I don't see this storm being much different than what we've seen time and time again this winter: a messy, double-barrel low that shafts mid-atlantic and coastal areas. I think there's a good chance that the depth of rainfall IMBY will exceed the depth of snowfall from this storm. 

Spoiler

 

2-5 12z EPS h168.png

2-5 12z EPS h192.png

 

 

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie

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Another rain storm for us. With weather like today,  let’s just get spring here already. Ill take the warm over the cold, these past 2 days have been awesome. Screw that snow stuff lol...

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45 minutes ago, PA Snow 84 said:

bobber.gif

That's just a sunny.  Big storms take harpoons and barrels...  ;)

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16 minutes ago, Mtksurfer said:

Another rain storm for us. With weather like today,  let’s just get spring here already. Ill take the warm over the cold, these past 2 days have been awesome. Screw that snow stuff lol...

Need that 1030 High to really nose down more. We are 7 days out roughly, let the cold air get established first and see where it takes us. If the cold is a weee bit stronger, will cause the low to cut around it and dive further south. Early in the game

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25 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

12z EPS has a low track from Indianapolis to a double-barrel look with a secondary developing in the Gulf of Maine. I'd love to be wrong, but I don't see this storm being much different than what we've seen time and time again this winter: a messy, double-barrel low that shafts mid-atlantic and coastal areas. I think there's a good chance that the depth of rainfall IMBY will exceed the depth of snowfall from this storm. 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

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Not quite the entire picture on the 12Z EPS.    The secondary starts forming down off NC coast not the GOM. 

 

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Hard to trust GFS when it shows such a different solution from 6 hours ago.    Does seem to trend more towards Euro though with the set up

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