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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

PA road DAWG

February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

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6 minutes ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

:classic_laugh:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28 (1).png

OBX for that Low

Edited by SolutionMan

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Actually looks like it’s going to turn out to be a decent run for NJ.   Just seems to keep snowing, even if not heavy stuff 

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I'll take my six inches and go home with that thank you lalala 😶

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Both euro and gfs have similar setup with the High further south and suppressing the GFS whereas the euro delivers the goods much further north.  Time will tell which is correct but are both showing storminess which is all one can hope for at this lead time.

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Boy am I a little excited :classic_sleep:, after seeing both GFS and EURO show about the same storm.  Within 10 days, not yet 4 days out....not too shabby if you ask me :rapper-smiley-emoticon: edit: I would like to add that if this setup can hold, there appears to be that wonderful thing needed for biggies (really needed for us weenies down in the southern areas)....Cold air injection out front of everything.

Edited by avsguy
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18Z GFS snow map

 

gfs_asnow_neus_36.png

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Man....

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

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XXX looking much better this run. Seems Euro, GFS and XXX GFS are coming into some sort of agreement.

fv3p_ref_frzn_us_fh168-198.gif.7c45c41b605373de22078d5daa27c755.gif

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1 hour ago, shaulov4 said:

I'll take my six inches and go home with that thank you lalala 😶

That’s what she said?

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Hahaa sorry guys, but I LOVE how this guy trolls NYC.  He must’ve been booted from 33andrain

FF9D3B61-4558-4399-ADFD-DB8A887446A4.png

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18Z FV3-GFS snow map

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_38.png

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Things are  starting  to get more interesting for  this  time period

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6 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

18Z FV3-GFS snow map

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_38.png

Its about damn time we have something to track !!!!!!!! 

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I totally agree with Cranky FWIW. in a split flow pattern, which is quite evident in the eastern Pacific, you can not jump on any model run. Period. 3-4 days out and you will have a better view. 7 days out? Fantasy. 

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This is the one time I don't want a storm. Moving from CT to WNY on the 16th. Watching this one closely.

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3 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

Not quite the entire picture on the 12Z EPS.    The secondary starts forming down off NC coast not the GOM. 

Spoiler

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020512_174_35_149_m0.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020512_180_35_149.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020512_186_35_149_m0.png

 

 

I think you confused EPS and ECMWF. I posted the 12z Euro ensemble mean, you posted the operational 12z Euro. Substantial differences exist between the EPS and ECMWF solutions, which should be a :FlagWave:

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9 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

I think you confused EPS and ECMWF. I posted the 12z Euro ensemble mean, you posted the operational 12z Euro. Substantial differences exist between the EPS and ECMWF solutions, which should be a :FlagWave:

Actually looking back it was the12Z  EURO Ensembles Control Run I posted from the https://weather.us/  website.

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If there is any specifics to look at here at this range is the HP to the north. Latest model runs show that this is a fairly strong HP which would not allow this thing to cut up however it is a having a battle with that pesky SE Ridge that we all dearly love. Yes I get it split flow yada yada, however with that fresh injection of cold air and battle between the north and the south this thing can be a beauty for Central and Northern Mid-Atlantic.

There is more to this such as the separation between the northern stream and southern stream however not going to go to far ahead of myself. This has the potential nice for the mid Atlantic states and if I am in the interior North east I would bite my nails hoping not to be the one who gets shafted. But that's just speculation 😉.

18 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

I think you confused EPS and ECMWF. I posted the 12z Euro ensemble mean, you posted the operational 12z Euro. Substantial differences exist between the EPS and ECMWF solutions, which should be a :FlagWave:

It may very well be a red flag, however the EPS has been far from perfect this winter and at this range I wouldn't put a nickel on that puppy.

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52 minutes ago, RickRD said:

I totally agree with Cranky FWIW. in a split flow pattern, which is quite evident in the eastern Pacific, you can not jump on any model run. Period. 3-4 days out and you will have a better view. 7 days out? Fantasy. 

Yup, timing with a split flow is brutal to predict far out, and with this pattern timing is critical. 12 hours off is big difference, especially without a -NAO.

Nightly statement anymore. Stay the course, this is going to be a wild few weeks coming up. We have a super active stj, and some cold air available so if we time any of them, game on. AND, If we can get any help from nao(even weak or transient), then some of the snow starved ain't gonna be starved anymore.

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2 hours ago, Greenjacket said:

That’s what she said?

I'm glad you said it before I did! 

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Here's to hopefully tracking the big one!!!  :cheers:

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