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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

PA road DAWG

February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

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20 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

*THIS IS A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT*

I feel like the effects of this storm are being underplayed in areas. CTP is asleep at the wheel (as usual) but Sterling has issued a good impacts map.  It's been a broken record but the same areas who have received 3-6" of snow last night really need to pay attention. For the ridge and valley above 1200' this has the chance to be another significant snow/icing event. Sterling labeling it "excessive" for those areas. If you're in the high ice areas time to prepare. Luckily warmth follows a few days after for clean up. 

*end public service announcement*

Experimental NWS Map.png

Good luck brother!

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The IWM snowmap via 12z NAM. Bullseyes respectively on @TheRex, @mainiac & @Mike W IN ALTMAR

Changeover makes it all the way to the Canadian border per NAM for all except the northern half of Maine.

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_075.gif

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Nam showing a sleetfest for Central Jersey and north....at least I get to shovel something....

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25 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Overdone? Usually is. But there is a real chance of another 1/2"+ of ZR in the circled area I know well. With ice, you really need to know your microclimate. 

ZR.png

back into the shadows. 

:200w2:

Completely agreed bruh!  Much more worried about ice with this one then snow.

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45 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

looking for a little help here,,,,is there anything we can look for or hope for today that would stop or slow down the midlevels from warming ? 

Disregard this question----I found it with some help it is actually on Tropical Tidbits and others I just never took the time to look at upper air dynamics --> from now on I will

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It’s a bummer that 1040H moves further into Canada, would of been nice if it came down by the UA Canada border

 

well the federal government should be open on time tomorrow with no delays since it will be rain. The roads were a mess at 3:30 a.m. when I went out until I was told a two hour delay.

Edited by Storms R’ US

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31 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Overdone? Usually is. But there is a real chance of another 1/2"+ of ZR in the circled area I know well. With ice, you really need to know your microclimate. 

ZR.png

back into the shadows. 

:200w2:

Hey! Hey!! You get back here or else 

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Serious Request.  Don't usually ask like this, but I got to this time.

Need a realistic guesstimate for travel conditions (Mainly NJTPK) from Morristown, NJ to Philadelphia from 6am -10am

His one year old, who is currently in a full body cast due to hip relocation surgery, has an appt in Philly for serious unrelated issues at around 8am.  He will be leaving at 6am.  Cancelling tomorrow delays future, but necessary surgery(s) at least a month.

What is he up against at that time?  I am hoping since it mostly highway that it would be slop to rain, but not sure.

Driving back north early afternoon so I think there will be changeover occurring that would at least make the ride possible.

Sorry  for the request, but it's about a 1 year old who has had a pretty rough 1st year. 

Thank you,

Alan

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Another foot on the way for the crown of Maine.

Sadly we seem to be holding all the snow hostage up here and we'd honestly love to share!

StormTotalSnow.png

sd1_today.jpg

2018-2019-awssi-me-carib.png

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1 minute ago, Storms R’ US said:

It’s a bummer that 1040H moves further into Canada, would of been nice if it came down by the UA Canada border

Sorry but il keep her right where she is :classic_biggrin:

Really i wish that you all get a big snowstorm before winter ends perhaps a major Noreaster and we all get buried :classic_happy:

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5 minutes ago, Miller A said:

Serious Request.  Don't usually ask like this, but I got to this time.

Need a realistic guesstimate for travel conditions (Mainly NJTPK) from Morristown, NJ to Philadelphia from 6am -10am

His one year old, who is currently in a full body cast due to hip relocation surgery, has an appt in Philly for serious unrelated issues at around 8am.  He will be leaving at 6am.  Cancelling tomorrow delays future, but necessary surgery(s) at least a month.

What is he up against at that time?  I am hoping since it mostly highway that it would be slop to rain, but not sure.

Driving back north early afternoon so I think there will be changeover occurring that would at least make the ride possible.

Sorry  for the request, but it's about a 1 year old who has had a pretty rough 1st year. 

Thank you,

Alan

He needs to consider leaving this evening and perhaps booking a hotel. Tomorrow morning he is looking at snow, sleet and freezing rain. He is risking not only not making his appointment due to traffic and road conditions, he is likewise risking his and his child's safety 

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3 minutes ago, Storms R’ US said:

It’s a bummer that 1040H moves further into Canada, would of been nice if it came down by the UA Canada border

 

well the federal government should be open on time tomorrow with no delays since it will be rain. The roads were a mess at 3:30 a.m. when I went out until I was told a two hour delay.

It is,  however,  I think the track of the storm itself is the main issue here.  The high pressure itself is perfect, whereas the track is not 

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1 minute ago, Stl said:

Sorry but il keep her right where she is :classic_biggrin:

Really i wish that you all get a big snowstorm before winter ends perhaps a major Noreaster and we all get buried :classic_happy:

Banned :snoozer_08:

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1 minute ago, Uscg ast said:

Banned :snoozer_08:

 

Hahahaha , ok ok , il tell her to go down :6:

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1 minute ago, Miller A said:

Serious Request.  Don't usually ask like this, but I got to this time.

Need a realistic guesstimate for travel conditions (Mainly NJTPK) from Morristown, NJ to Philadelphia from 6am -10am

His one year old, who is currently in a full body cast due to hip relocation surgery, has an appt in Philly for serious unrelated issues at around 8am.  He will be leaving at 6am.  Cancelling tomorrow delays future, but necessary surgery(s) at least a month.

What is he up against at that time?  I am hoping since it mostly highway that it would be slop to rain, but not sure.

Driving back north early afternoon so I think there will be changeover occurring that would at least make the ride possible.

Sorry  for the request, but it's about a 1 year old who has had a pretty rough 1st year. 

Thank you,

Alan

If it's something this important, just head down tonight and get a hotel room.   It looks to me as if this storm will be ramping up mid morning, that said, perhaps by then he'll be far enough down the TPKE the effect will be minimal.

As to coming home, it should be switched over mostly in the afternoon and evening to rain or sleet.   Again though, if the conditions look nasty...stay down there another night. Shrug.  Health is more important than getting home.   In the overall scheme of things a couple hundred bucks in hotel rooms won't make a bit of a difference. 

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5 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

It is,  however,  I think the track of the storm itself is the main issue here.  The high pressure itself is perfect, whereas the track is not 

Shame to have a lot of precipitation for the next couple days, we’ll ov an 1 1/2”, PA and north were all that sleet and freezing rain is going to be falling be careful.

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Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
940 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

MDZ501-502-WVZ503-112245-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190213T0000Z/
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Mineral-
940 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, sleet and freezing rain. Additional snow
  accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of two
  tenths to four tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Allegany County. In West Virginia,
  Western Mineral County.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely
  due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening
  commutes both today and Tuesday.
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12z NAM surface temp trend over last 6 runs

1529219997_2-1112znamtemptrend.gif.4754b1fb75beecb67cdb7767cf4c0db1.gif

850 temp trend 

24243837_2-1112znam850temptrend.gif.f3d6b8b161b2fd0c8df049f266e3e6bb.gif

 

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25 minutes ago, Miller A said:

Serious Request.  Don't usually ask like this, but I got to this time.

Need a realistic guesstimate for travel conditions (Mainly NJTPK) from Morristown, NJ to Philadelphia from 6am -10am

His one year old, who is currently in a full body cast due to hip relocation surgery, has an appt in Philly for serious unrelated issues at around 8am.  He will be leaving at 6am.  Cancelling tomorrow delays future, but necessary surgery(s) at least a month.

What is he up against at that time?  I am hoping since it mostly highway that it would be slop to rain, but not sure.

Driving back north early afternoon so I think there will be changeover occurring that would at least make the ride possible.

Sorry  for the request, but it's about a 1 year old who has had a pretty rough 1st year. 

Thank you,

Alan

As others said, they should go tonight. A common miss in location/timing could put ice in that area in that time frame. $120 for a hotel room is a small price to pay to mitigate that risk.

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33 minutes ago, Miller A said:

Serious Request.  Don't usually ask like this, but I got to this time.

Need a realistic guesstimate for travel conditions (Mainly NJTPK) from Morristown, NJ to Philadelphia from 6am -10am

His one year old, who is currently in a full body cast due to hip relocation surgery, has an appt in Philly for serious unrelated issues at around 8am.  He will be leaving at 6am.  Cancelling tomorrow delays future, but necessary surgery(s) at least a month.

What is he up against at that time?  I am hoping since it mostly highway that it would be slop to rain, but not sure.

Driving back north early afternoon so I think there will be changeover occurring that would at least make the ride possible.

Sorry  for the request, but it's about a 1 year old who has had a pretty rough 1st year. 

Thank you,

Alan

Overall: It might not be snowing yet when he leaves Morristown in the morning, but there could be ~2" in Philly with light sleet/freezing rain upon arrival. 

I'm not from that area and don't know how well they treat the roads. I assume the NJTPK is a major thoroughfare that is a DOT priority and therefore will be fine in the well-anticipated light/moderate snowfall tomorrow morning, but untreated roads should have some snow cover.

I'm confident in my ability to make that trip just fine, but if he's worried about the drive then arrive in Philly tonight and get a hotel for the night. Paying for a hotel isn't ideal, but it's far better than delaying necessary medical procedures. 

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie
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31 minutes ago, Miller A said:

Serious Request.  Don't usually ask like this, but I got to this time.

Need a realistic guesstimate for travel conditions (Mainly NJTPK) from Morristown, NJ to Philadelphia from 6am -10am

His one year old, who is currently in a full body cast due to hip relocation surgery, has an appt in Philly for serious unrelated issues at around 8am.  He will be leaving at 6am.  Cancelling tomorrow delays future, but necessary surgery(s) at least a month.

What is he up against at that time?  I am hoping since it mostly highway that it would be slop to rain, but not sure.

Driving back north early afternoon so I think there will be changeover occurring that would at least make the ride possible.

Sorry  for the request, but it's about a 1 year old who has had a pretty rough 1st year. 

Thank you,

Alan

Long range HRRR interpretation at 6am.  Looks like snow most of the way.

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_23.png

NAM 3k agrees

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_23.png

as do the RGEM, WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM.  

Candian Hi Res is the only one that differs

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_29.png

 

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Thanks everyone!!!

image.thumb.png.14a1c24c489e14cce50bb364a8f2fee3.png

image.png

Edited by Miller A
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SMH:negative:

image.png.f3da683c11eb275affb5c1b829a372d4.png

Edited by StretchCT
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5 minutes ago, Miller A said:

 

Thanks everyone!!!

image.thumb.png.14a1c24c489e14cce50bb364a8f2fee3.png

image.png

Their ice accretion forecast looks woefully underdone especially north of I-78

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7 minutes ago, Miller A said:

 

Thanks everyone!!!

image.thumb.png.14a1c24c489e14cce50bb364a8f2fee3.png

image.png

And the RAIN?   :28_2_8v:

Thanks for posting

Edited by RickRD
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