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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

PA road DAWG

February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

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10 minutes ago, Weather Badger said:

At 162 0Z GFS seems confused as it has 3 Lows depicted, which one is the "real" one? 

gfs_z500_mslp_us_28.png

This says otherwise, I would assume it is a consolidation of energy if looking at the big picture here

image.png.c1a59adb831286ab72db27c8e0321e86.png

IMO GFS is handling this thing as well as it can at this range, it has the Euro to back it up. They key here for the energies to speed up giving us a quicker transfer and it will have to transfer  IF the HP up top is strong as it is being depicted, it may be stronger than what's being shown which may indicate an earlier transfer. Too me a cutter is still possible but the major models are seeing colder air in the picture and thats encouraging.

Edited by shaulov4
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GFS and Euro are in somewhat of an agreement, I'm putting my nickel on it but no more for now....Good night all

 

One more thing to note with this setup someone gets shafted.....I have my ideas but I'll keep them to myself for now.

Edited by shaulov4

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Nice hit on this run for N and W of I95

0207A7FE-B110-4C2C-8465-D6611D9D1C02.png

Edited by RickRD
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19 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

One more thing to note with this setup someone gets shafted.....I have my ideas but I'll keep them to myself for now.

@PlanetMaster

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Just now, shaulov4 said:

you said it not me 😂 

Its fine I can accept the reality of it all.

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Will be keeping an eye on this one. I’m just keeping by fingers crossed hoping that this storm does not turn into another northern New England special. 😂

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Para is similar in concept to that of the GFS/euro, just develops/tracks the 2ndry farther inland.. Just another in many solutions to follow..

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR
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Ugh Euro will be much warmer I think 

Edited by PA road DAWG

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Euro is ugly cutter lagging transfer. Lol goodnight 

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Gotta wonder if ECMWF negative tilt bias is in play here.

1835633380_ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8(2).png.0daa6fc8e3a29f5b128e8ed29589b519.png

UKie at hour 168 looks similar, but a bit more enthusiastic about popping a coastal.

ukm2.2019021300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.096f09cb3007258ebd10043d9387cb0c.png-

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2 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Gotta wonder if ECMWF negative tilt bias is in play here.

1835633380_ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8(2).png.0daa6fc8e3a29f5b128e8ed29589b519.png

UKie at hour 168 looks similar, but a bit more enthusiastic about popping a coastal.

ukm2.2019021300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.096f09cb3007258ebd10043d9387cb0c.png-

Looks like it might, still looks like a good snow for most with dynamics being the real player here once the storm pulls northward that's where this thing goes to light rain in the back end, but the overall look is that this may very well be a 6-12 in NYC and 12+ in Boston. May have spoken too soon but I have seen this movies before.

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On the Euro most places stay cold for most of the event, I think its the precip shield that makes it a little awkward on this run, but in the grand scheme of things still the biggest snow this season for many on this run. 

image.thumb.png.9f51d558f2aa41118a75b7af9c81f429.png

image.thumb.png.07abe8dfd25592a6901c0bca1cc82b49.png

image.thumb.png.8b617e976cc377a74ddeb41633046104.png

This precip "problem" may be due to the transfer and as a result lower totals in Eastern PA

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EPS with spread suggests some faster, earlier developing system

19021300_0600.gif.4f983ecaad8d41b24de6bee10ad94ecc.gif

290236488_19021300_0600(1).gif.bfd0e3ae17c0389feb1dd0733f20f1a5.gif

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1 minute ago, MaineJay said:

EPS with spread suggests some faster, earlier developing system

19021300_0600.gif.4f983ecaad8d41b24de6bee10ad94ecc.gif

290236488_19021300_0600(1).gif.bfd0e3ae17c0389feb1dd0733f20f1a5.gif

Goes along with my thinking, I like it.

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Fv3 hugs the coast but an improvement from previous run, I think we see an inside benchmark track/transfer 

image.png.b8555273fcebf6dbeef660484a06b53d.png \

If there is a time when most can get snow out of a hugging coastal, February is the month....

image.png.ee93735523331e8979983eab52c57ce4.png

Too robust, but the point is taken.

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In a coastal transfer situation like we’re seeing on some of these models, one would have to worry about dry slotting as the transfer takes place, right ?

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1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said:

In a coastal transfer situation like we’re seeing on some of these models, one would have to worry about dry slotting as the transfer takes place, right ?

Yes sir that's what I said by someone is going to get shafted last night, usually Eastern PA in these type of scenarios

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8 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Good. I fly home the 15th from Paris. Hoping to get in on the action and see a full fledged snowstorm! So, how promising does it look?

At this time frame, probably about as promising as anything else this season, lol.

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56 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

In a coastal transfer situation like we’re seeing on some of these models, one would have to worry about dry slotting as the transfer takes place, right ?

Correct.

Someone would get dry slotted, and that is too hard to know now.

At the same time, someone would get dumped on hard as the transfer occurs. The location where the precipitation canopy does not dry up and persists while the inland low decays and the coastal cyclogenesis is taking place would get a generous enhancement in precipitation totals. Like the dry slot, it´s too hard to know that now.

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In a split flow pattern good luck trying to nail this one down now. Models will flip flop till the weekend  

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7 minutes ago, WeatherFlash said:

In a split flow pattern good luck trying to nail this one down now. Models will flip flop till the weekend  

Models are already honing in on two scenarios, #1 a cutter or # 2 a two low scenario in which the primary low heads north then transfers to the coast. IMO this one shouldn't be as difficult to figure out as other storms this winter.

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11 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

Actually looking back it was the12Z  EURO Ensembles Control Run I posted from the https://weather.us/  website.

Gotcha, but my point was that differences exist between a single deterministic run and an average of 50+ deterministic runs. 

Deterministic runs indicate shreds of hope remain, but the EPS mean indicates a storm structure similar to what has been realized on many occasions this winter: an inland low with all the cold air and a coastal secondary with all the moisture. Poorly organized storms like this aren't favorable for locations that are currently snow-starved.

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png

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2 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

Yes sir that's what I said by someone is going to get shafted last night, usually Eastern PA in these type of scenarios

Yepper, not a big fan of transfers here if you luv snow. It is the good vs bad for transfers here for E PA. If it is a slow moving storm with transfer , usually with some blocking we can do quite well. We cash in on some snows from the dying primary, plus the snows from the secondary usually wrap in - and it is usually mostly snow (we don't have to wait for the cold air to crash in, as places further east do ). In faster movers, usually without any blocking high or 50/50 , we get caught waving at most of the snow to our nw and se. The mountain jumpers are too late. Secondary just doesn't have enough time to develop for us. So as of this early look, again we need that high to hold ground for as long as possible, or the ongoing pattern will win out.

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