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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

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2 hours ago, Phillyfan said:

Already a much different look on 12z gfs, yuck more rain.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

Ugh... Typical. Ping .... Pong....

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2 hours ago, LUCC said:

Lmao at 12z GooFuS compared to 6z, what an awesome model! Went from 15" of snow to warm with 2" of rain. 

Well the good news is .. if it did that in one run then maybe in one run it’ll flip back to 15” lol 😂 

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3 hours ago, Phillyfan said:

Already a much different look on 12z gfs, yuck more rain.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

PA varmit might have the call of an early Spring

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Gfs and fv3-gfs shows this storm and the next strong GLC’s bring warm air up through the mid Atlantic. Rain for the forseeable future

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This one will be the lock.  I've got a flight on the 18th which makes it certain as it will disrupt air travel.

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I'm not a towel thrower, but I believe they're getting packed into the closet with me whistling about spring. Just does not seem likely things will change, except with a fluke spring storm or 2.  Could be wrong of course.  Not really bitter, it's been an interesting winter, as weather is always interesting, and as JB would say, it's the only weather you got :)

0d1f2957c126ef3501d6f980a1679b97.jpg

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2 hours ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

I'm not a towel thrower, but I believe they're getting packed into the closet with me whistling about spring. Just does not seem likely things will change, except with a fluke spring storm or 2.  Could be wrong of course.  Not really bitter, it's been an interesting winter, as weather is always interesting, and as JB would say, it's the only weather you got :)

0d1f2957c126ef3501d6f980a1679b97.jpg

This would have been a good post for Snowbal, our towel-throwing expert! LOL!

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53 minutes ago, bobbo428 said:

This would have been a good post for Snowbal, our towel-throwing expert! LOL!

Lol snobal was the  expert towel thrower over at the old AccuWeather forums lol

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7 hours ago, Winter_warlock said:

Lol snobal was the  expert towel thrower over at the old AccuWeather forums lol

Yeah there is a lot of rainy days in the near and extended future.

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Just trying to keep the humor afloat during trying times.  

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Man, what a change change of events on models in a short time period, they trolled us good actually making us think this coming week could be very wintry for the NE. Probably going to have 4" of raiin by next weekend. 

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Keep in mind this storm will be happening around the same time the nao "should" start to blip negative. So, this could be the storm to flip that script. If that is the case we want this storm to be quite strong and a cutter.  

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3 hours ago, hbgweather said:

Keep in mind this storm will be happening around the same time the nao "should" start to blip negative. So, this could be the storm to flip that script. If that is the case we want this storm to be quite strong and a cutter.  

It could indeed be this one.

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3 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

It could indeed be this one.

Maybe it could at least be the storm that finally flips the overall pattern!!!!!

And kills the persistent southeast ridge!!

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1 hour ago, Winter_warlock said:

Maybe it could at least be the storm that finally flips the overall pattern!!!!!

And kills the persistent southeast ridge!!

Who knows but it maybe too late 

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The 00Z fv3- gfs just blasted my area with this storm. It threw down 16 inches of snow in a 6 hour period with 30 inches in 24 hours. Im not expecting it to verify. 🤪

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I like what the GFS is throwing down, but the track is pretty ominous for this low to ride up the apps then cut over north putting most of PA and I95 in the warm sector, but lets see if things flatten out and the low strays on a lower trajectory 

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11 hours ago, Storms R’ US said:

Who knows but it maybe too late 

Yeah ur right it is getting late in winter but we had our best snows in march last few years. It's only february 10th so we got plenty of time for a pattern flip. It's that darn southeast ridge killing us!!!!

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Historically and climatology speaking .. mid Feb around Presidents’ Day and Valentine’s Day has always produced big snowstorms for many in this forum in this timeframe .. models are horrible this season and I think there will be surprises that are good for snow lovers fingers crossed the ingredients come together thread the needle situation for this one .. 

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2 hours ago, Jblizz68 said:

Historically and climatology speaking .. mid Feb around Presidents’ Day and Valentine’s Day has always produced big snowstorms for many in this forum in this timeframe .. models are horrible this season and I think there will be surprises that are good for snow lovers fingers crossed the ingredients come together thread the needle situation for this one .. 

I agree I think our fun and games are coming in next 10 days or so :)

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EMan oh man.   

The GFS and FV3 have both shown a monstrosity of a storm complex. 

There's the frist part that comes from the Great Lakes and the a new low developing way far south and blows up and goes all out negatively tilted tracking the NW over the Northeast.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-168.gif.efeb9f6626310566c106ee1e6fcb21a2.gif

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh126-180.gif.8660ea7e46c50965a7edb65ca53133d2.gif

That negative tilt causing a track NW over towards the NE CONUS is shown on one of my track scenarios on the thread opener.

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35 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

EMan oh man.   

The GFS and FV3 have both shown a monstrosity of a storm complex. 

There's the frist part that comes from the Great Lakes and the a new low developing way far south and blows up and goes all out negatively tilted tracking the NW over the Northeast.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-168.gif.efeb9f6626310566c106ee1e6fcb21a2.gif

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh126-180.gif.8660ea7e46c50965a7edb65ca53133d2.gif

That negative tilt causing a track NW over towards the NE CONUS is shown on one of my track scenarios on the thread opener.

I saw that too but wouldn’t that bring warm air in with rain.

The 12z’s of the following models gfs, fv3-gfs, and cmc should different solutions with hardly any snowfall but mostly rain. This far out doesn’t look good right now.

D4057937-346B-4199-9866-4881ED4D4074.png

61EC999E-2BA8-41AD-ACD8-3850D92762DD.png

7593A49E-8B6D-472C-BFBD-BF645821BCA7.png

3CBA722C-BE44-41EC-8EDA-EFB7F194AD7C.png

B07665F2-04CE-439E-8B83-3931CF6438A9.png

C4D1ABEE-56C0-49C6-B417-5FD3F0016A61.png

5DE60B00-F9D4-466E-A7E7-74C4D8BFA519.png

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8 minutes ago, Storms R’ US said:

I saw that too but wouldn’t that bring warm air in with rain.

The 12z’s of the following models gfs, fv3-gfs, and cmc should different solutions with hardly any snowfall but mostly rain. This far out doesn’t look good right now.

D4057937-346B-4199-9866-4881ED4D4074.png61EC999E-2BA8-41AD-ACD8-3850D92762DD.png

Spoiler


7593A49E-8B6D-472C-BFBD-BF645821BCA7.png

3CBA722C-BE44-41EC-8EDA-EFB7F194AD7C.png

B07665F2-04CE-439E-8B83-3931CF6438A9.png

C4D1ABEE-56C0-49C6-B417-5FD3F0016A61.png

5DE60B00-F9D4-466E-A7E7-74C4D8BFA519.png

 

 

3

Was not posting in relation to precipitation type.

The post was to emphasize how amazing of a storm that would be to see unfold. That would have a chance to pack some good winds, and who got snow, would probably be under a blizzard warning if such depiction would ever come to fruition.

We need to enjoy the beauty of the storms. How they come to be; their development and what they can dish out when they reach their maximum potential.

Not everyone will get the kind of precipitation they want in their backyard. Perhaps a few storms, if any can do that in such a huge region as its the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast combined.

As long as we keep only looking at our backyard for snow, we will continue to get frustrated and rained on many times until we die because there can never be a winter that will snow mostly all the time all winter, perhaps excluding central and Northern Maine and SE Canada.

@Storms R’ US, don´t you appreciate such big storms like the one shown on both GFS versions and how they are depcited?

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