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Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

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Ominous.. No? Anyone with access to more details from the Euro

C94E56C3-DEF7-4E75-841D-2173BDC6FC35.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Phased Vort said:

EMan oh man.   

The GFS and FV3 have both shown a monstrosity of a storm complex. 

There's the frist part that comes from the Great Lakes and the a new low developing way far south and blows up and goes all out negatively tilted tracking the NW over the Northeast.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-168.gif.efeb9f6626310566c106ee1e6fcb21a2.gif

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh126-180.gif.8660ea7e46c50965a7edb65ca53133d2.gif

That negative tilt causing a track NW over towards the NE CONUS is shown on one of my track scenarios on the thread opener.

Thats a thing of beauty from Mother Nature, I love how its gets pulled back towards the coast. The magic of the negative tilt. :6:

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?
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I agree and yes I enjoy big exciting storms no matter what, especially spring and summer. Love those with the winds and lightning are awesome.

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1 hour ago, Penn State said:

Ominous.. No? Anyone with access to more details from the Euro

C94E56C3-DEF7-4E75-841D-2173BDC6FC35.jpeg

Here!

Hope it helps you.

I think I kind of agree with your post´s word choice. No Great Lakes cutter. And there´s even an attempt at a faster south transfer but still over land. It´s interesting because the retiring GFS and the soon to be promoted FV3 GFS, do show redevelopments, but much farther south and already offshore, and then that low blows up, negative tilt does it´s masterpiece job and shoves the coastal low into the Northeast.

1136291318_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined138.thumb.png.2df4ed1b40090eb408df8b04ad9bd1ce.png1055385403_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined144.thumb.png.be67b1cbaa3a98a128c969bce8da1ed8.png

829907206_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined150.thumb.png.2b9ff6b22ff692bc136002b7e254c580.png913238711_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined156.thumb.png.37e008945f677e05eccaa0c262d329cb.png

311245552_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesEastCoastUSAPrecipTypeMSLP(1).gif.309143b61f902cc4c36c553930230973.gif

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2 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

EMan oh man.   

The GFS and FV3 have both shown a monstrosity of a storm complex. 

There's the frist part that comes from the Great Lakes and the a new low developing way far south and blows up and goes all out negatively tilted tracking the NW over the Northeast.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-168.gif.efeb9f6626310566c106ee1e6fcb21a2.gif

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh126-180.gif.8660ea7e46c50965a7edb65ca53133d2.gif

That negative tilt causing a track NW over towards the NE CONUS is shown on one of my track scenarios on the thread opener.

The winds on Mt Washington would be howling.

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3 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

The winds on Mt Washington would be howling.

Can you imagine being up there to see how it goes? 

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Of course I'm trying to have a birthday party for my 2 year old on Saturday.

UKie is slow

 

ukm2.2019021512_120_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ea4127ab5e51fadc53c7c1840ea2a7a6.png

ukm2.2019021612_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.d2162b0beecfc5b8c208cf40a0b70073.png

ukm2.2019021712_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.febcf51be62ec8e22b19946507697c21.png

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18 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Of course I'm trying to have a birthday party for my 2 year old on Saturday.

UKie is slow

  Hide contents

ukm2.2019021512_120_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ea4127ab5e51fadc53c7c1840ea2a7a6.png

ukm2.2019021612_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.d2162b0beecfc5b8c208cf40a0b70073.png

ukm2.2019021712_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.febcf51be62ec8e22b19946507697c21.png

The recent runs have strongly hinted at some type of a different evolution for this storm as compared to a few days ago.

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1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

Of course I'm trying to have a birthday party for my 2 year old on Saturday.

On mount Washington? 

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36 minutes ago, KENNYP2339 said:

On mount Washington? 

She'd probably like that. :classic_laugh: but no.  I do have some family that are planning on driving up from Boston though, not a long drive, but don't want mom on slick roads.

 

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Ahaha. Nice try FV3.

993127436_fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_26(1).thumb.png.e8e276a3d20a6ce10caff35d1b584633.png

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18Z FV3 transformed Maine in Antarctica

@MaineJay would need to live in an igloo... 

 

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Hello folks , nice to see everyone ! ive been in rough shape as of late in hospital with mental illnesses , hope for better days to come , back on topic looks like things could get interesting for yous down there , we had a terrible winter no snow on ground here , alot of rainy days and then snow rinse and repeat but hope to get a nice blizzard before winter is over ! so lets hope this might be the one for someone here . cheers 

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42 minutes ago, shaneomac said:

Hello folks , nice to see everyone ! ive been in rough shape as of late in hospital with mental illnesses , hope for better days to come , back on topic looks like things could get interesting for yous down there , we had a terrible winter no snow on ground here , alot of rainy days and then snow rinse and repeat but hope to get a nice blizzard before winter is over ! so lets hope this might be the one for someone here . cheers 

Hello Shane, I remember you back from the AccuWx forum days when I was a lurker but not a member. Many here have had large amounts of rain since summer. If your lucky to get a snowfall another rainmaker comes along and washes it away. I'm hoping the 12-14 storm will give some snow for us snow lovers.

  Wishing you a nice recovery and many nice weather events that you will enjoy. Good to see you and chime back in when you can buddy. :6:

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GFS looking different

image.png.50ffa14aae696cb1059198b7a1a73223.png

image.png.dfa1b10dff30c2f760b52e33549cedae.png

I wonder what implications this would have for the next storm....?

Edited by shaulov4
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Yesterday we saw different models on the 12Z runs showing a different evolution for this storm, with one low going over the Lakes and the another developing far south offshore. And then we saw the 12UKMET show something like what the 12Z GFS is showing, with one low going over the Lakes and another developing farther south over land. However, the UKMET showed the over land low tracking over the SE CONUS.

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20 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Yesterday we saw different models on the 12Z runs showing a different evolution for this storm, with one low going over the Lakes and the another developing far south offshore. And then we saw the 12UKMET show something like what the 12Z GFS is showing, with one low going over the Lakes and another developing farther south over land. However, the UKMET showed the over land low tracking over the SE CONUS.

Noticed a lack of maps being shared, curious to see the evolution (I'm busier than all get out and lack time to do the detective work myself unfortunately)

Edited by Cdfarabaugh

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12Z CMC also has a low over Virginia evolution.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh108-150.gif.d4fda37143fb3d26df9d3342876e4cdc.gif

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12Z UKIE takes SLP from Alabama at H120 to off the Delmarva at H144.

 

 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

Edited by paletitsnow63

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Seems like all the models are losing that massive strong cutter idea which is PERFECTLY fine by me.  Euro is a weak slider south and east. 

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2 minutes ago, Weather Fury said:

That still seems rather warm for many!

This should be looked at as the table setter for the next.

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