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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

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Just now, Phased Vort said:

12z EPS Controlleft and EPS 24-hour precipitation:

Given the shorter time frame, this one is getting interesting and may start to glue us to our screens.

eps_ptype_c01_conus_156.thumb.png.2cfa053ec06b13458f35d3a492f48719.png1626160849_14-kmEPSUSAUnitedStates24-hPrecipitation.gif.c7a6fd0b24f4ffef924dc961531b359b.gif

1

And to go along with that, we have the ECMWF with an embryonic coastal idea, FV3 and the GFS attempting to get to a coastal solution as well.

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34 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

12z EPS Control:

Given the shorter time frame, this one is getting interesting and may start to glue us to our screens.

eps_ptype_c01_conus_156.thumb.png.2cfa053ec06b13458f35d3a492f48719.png

Oh stop it you, I dont have time for this...."reschedules life a month a later."

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3 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

What the hell is going on here? Are we turning this thing into a coastal now?!

 

800019.gif

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Just now, Uscg ast said:

 

800019.gif

AMEN!

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2 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

18Z EPS:

eps_ptype_c01_conus_120.thumb.png.240cc07b19ba483b8b07ba60772b86d7.pngeps_ptype_c01_conus_126.thumb.png.d5d80972467564449ff3a1416fef10bf.png

Kind looks like the fv3 😳

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3 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

18Z EPS:

eps_ptype_c01_conus_120.thumb.png.240cc07b19ba483b8b07ba60772b86d7.pngeps_ptype_c01_conus_126.thumb.png.d5d80972467564449ff3a1416fef10bf.png

Right now my forecast Felton Delaware just below Dover I rain Friday and Saturday. Completely different then what the euro is showing and seeing models have been having hard time with systems. Will keep an eye on what develops.

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Sterling had this is this mornings discussion. .. for Sunday and sunday night.. the 17th .... interesting! !

 

"Most models build high pressure back into the region briefly on Saturday night behind the Saturday system, but it too doesn`t last. Most guidance shows another wave moving east along the front stalled to our south on Sunday and Sunday night, with another risk of wintry weather. Guidance is in better agreement regarding this system, so do have a risk of snow in the forecast Sunday and Sunday night as it passes, potentially lingering even Monday if the slower guidance is right. As implied by the snowier solutions, temperatures through the long term will be mostly near to below normal, though severe cold is not currently anticipated"

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UKMET showing storm off coast . Looking more interesting...

 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif.jpeg

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Folks, given the need to adjust the thread dates due to the storm´s timing shown on the models and taking into consideration the event is about 4 days away, the dates will be adjusted to better reflect the current timing of the event.

By doing that, we will then need a thread for the FROPA that passes over the Northeast on the 15th, so folks affected may have a dedicated thread to talk about it and post OBS.

I would like someone to volunteer to open that thread. Please include data from different models and an explanation of what the event is and how it should impact the region.

Anyone would like to do that?

If so, much appreciated.

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9 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

00Z ECMWF:

2108343850_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesMidAtlanticPrecipTypeMSLP.gif.c99b241eb45709ae7e0af0d2a80dc34b.gif

It´s interesting that the ECMWF which is usually grabby given it´s over amplification bias is flatter than the FV3 GFS. The FV3 is some mbs deeper and hence more amped, which allows the storm to actually track more ENE and affect the northern Mid Atlantic and southern New England.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh96-126.thumb.gif.37d0b341287e07a8356d4e06893bdad8.gif

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16 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

00Z ECMWF:

2108343850_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesMidAtlanticPrecipTypeMSLP.gif.c99b241eb45709ae7e0af0d2a80dc34b.gif

What do big storms do? :classic_rolleyes: (Not sure if this even falls under the category of "big" though...)

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Big is always perspective.  

 

Sterling discussion Thursday to Monday

I know but to understand what this storm is showing you must take in account what happens before. Something we tend to forget.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Guidance has shifted notably in the long term to a potentially
colder and snowier solution, but uncertainty remains significant.

At the start, Low pressure will be traveling northeastward from the
Great Lakes into southeastern Canada, dragging a cold front
eastwards towards the region. This should allow Friday to start out
mild with southwesterly flow, but after the front passes,
accompanied by some showers, cooler air will overspread the region.

GFS and ECMWF now depict high pressure building across the region
briefly Friday night before a wave of low pressure rides eastward
along the tail end of the front on Saturday. With cooler air in
place, these models now bring a risk of snow as this wave passes to
the south. This is a big shift, and did not quite yet shift all the
way in that direction, given how much warmer earlier guidance was.
Its also notable that some guidance (notably the GGEM) still
shows a warmer scenario with a wave riding further north. That said,
we will be watching trends closely given this shift.

Most models build high pressure back into the region briefly on
Saturday night behind the Saturday system, but it too doesn`t last.
Most guidance shows another wave moving east along the front stalled
to our south on Sunday and Sunday night, with another risk of wintry
weather. Guidance is in better agreement regarding this system, so
do have a risk of snow in the forecast Sunday and Sunday night as it
passes, potentially lingering even Monday if the slower guidance is
right.

As implied by the snowier solutions, temperatures through the long
term will be mostly near to below normal, though severe cold is not
currently anticipated.

&&
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FWIW intial evolution on the NAM shows a stronger developing system...

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7 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

FWIW intial evolution on the NAM shows a stronger developing system...

And it's likely impacted by the fact that it kicks the system before it further north and quicker getting it out of the way so to speak

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6Z NAVGEM

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_fh120-144.gif

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Slight more amplification at H5 so far...

gfs_z500_vort_us_14.png

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12z GFS is much further north compared to 6z

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A tick north through 102, now tiptoeing through the mid-Atlantic. Encouraging trends

 

12Z

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

00Z

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

Edited by AceGikmo

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4 minutes ago, AceGikmo said:

A tick north through 102, now tiptoeing through the mid-Atlantic. Encouraging trends

 

12Z

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

00Z

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

Yep and it looks to be setting the stage for the bigger system behind it.... in my opinion

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2 minutes ago, Winter_warlock said:

Yep and it looks to be setting the stage for the bigger system behind it.... in my opinion

Agreed

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