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Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

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SNOWBOB11

February 12th-14th Winter Storm

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Next storm chance for the east is around this time frame. All models are showing something but they have been very changeable with the track.

This could end up as one singular system or as a miller b type system with a transfer of energy from inland to the coast.

Current 12z models have trended colder and therefore snowier for S ON with less mixing.

Here’s a look at some of the 12z runs.

ECMF0BE6251-3A23-42F4-A034-51D02E83C1DE.thumb.png.5288ed4c1d9b93d1e7f91fdfe43db69a.png

EBE5A61C-1801-4D7F-87AE-4E335364A19D.thumb.png.fbc744e6081899812cab49926f2d06ae.png

C796014A-305D-4617-81E9-1DDCAFCE3625.thumb.png.26b578b595d4e43e2829a1626cb48983.png

GFS8B9F028D-E50C-4C3B-881D-C0F91130BA6C.png.c0a4fab6e44aa7cad2e8be57c281ebc4.png

A25DF48C-66E3-43AE-B1BD-472B2C1E618F.thumb.png.bc1b04064a25375099d7b3cba3df7705.png

CMC313957F8-1F98-43E4-86A1-107A6EF4106A.png.dcce0eba921ea80cf27627a6a9662305.png

E2CB31DF-EEC3-47FF-88C7-A0F5FF4584BE.thumb.png.e9ce236f0b3fbff59807f86a7a9f91b3.png

Edited by SNOWBOB11

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Looks like there could be some more ice for my area :6:I surrender.

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FV3-GFS has consistently been showing a significant snow storm for S ON the last several runs.

4296F5B2-A5F1-447B-9E80-172926A3BEC3.thumb.png.7517c9639b7e8f7aca198a2c407e568a.png

8338E4C5-E5C8-4D20-BE30-737936BEEF36.thumb.png.a342e359076d4cb1a396aa8fb5086d31.png

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18z GFS looked pretty good. Closer to what the 06z FV3-GFS looked like.

FF1C1792-3EB1-4AC5-8C69-ED246FFB5DE1.png.117c67cd844394f0d62ad85744aeef54.png

2C9CE027-590D-469D-827B-895DBFBC7033.thumb.png.a020884f1a1387d0a267c8532f1662e5.png

Edited by SNOWBOB11

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Sign me up for the FV3 GFS another 12' would be great :chicken_dance-176:

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I'm starting to wish for spring.  Had snow cover in Brantford for less than 3 weeks.  Greeen Christmas, bitter cold, rain etc.  If this one happens and it stays for a while I may change my mind though.

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This system is being handled very interestingly by the models. CMC is full bore snowstorm for S ON, while the euro and GFS have a change to rain midway through the system.

What’s interesting is how the GFS and euro have the system basically creating its own cold air. This gives a sudden drop in upper air temps from the initial WAA and turns all precip frozen.

How fast the system off the coast pulls the energy from the inland system is also important in determining when there is a change in precip type.

It’s a fascinating dynamic and it’s going to be difficult for models to handle how it will all work out until there closer in range.

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Obviously this is the Great Lakes edition of this storm so here is the current snow totals from the North East point of view:

image.thumb.png.9f1feba63da057511be869a83d469fb8.png

Not really a lot for Southern Ontario who seems to have had a slightly better outlook then Nova Scotia as per average.  For my own area I seem to be getting heavy snow to ice to back end rain of less then 5mm which is not a bad deal if 15cm of snow holds up.  Surely based on this years winters history I am thinking that this model may be surely moving back towards a cutter to the western Great Lakes region as we have a general SE ridge setup that likes to deny snow lovers their just deserts unless you have enough NAO blocking to suppress and weaken it.  As we can see from today' s teleconnections:

image.thumb.png.e2cfcbc0ee93c16d82763d530d047a6e.png

The Pacific remains strongly negative and every plot done every day shows an extension of it which creates the SE Ridge that simply will not go. However the NAO seems to be showing slight negative variations though it does not hold much weight noting recent behaviour and the fact what location is it going to occur.  EPO is correct in terms of cold unlike during Christmas which created the screaming Pacific pumping warm weather.  With this storm the NAO is slightly positive.  Now if this pattern holds or it goes south then it might be worth for the first time this winter starting a maritime in particular Nova Scotia snow storm thread which does not hold weight.  However as subjective as this statement is: in all honesty I would rather have the next system to track which appears to be a stronger storm then the one on this thread.  So far Nova Scotia has been the snow hole of Canada this winter season (well more like snow deprivation or maybe nickel and dimmed in comparison to average but not as bad as the true snow hole of Philly to Boston.

 

Other models are too follow if anyon is interested posting the Euro, CMC, FV3, etc.

Edited by Sneezy
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I think things will go better for you when the MJO goes in 8 toward the end of the month. It's in 6 right now then back to 7 on Monday.

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Yeah! More wonky snow maps to get our hopes up :classic_rolleyes:

With 3 weeks now until March I'm honestly losing interest in snow and winter at this point. Wish I could just hit the fast forward button on February :classic_ninja:

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1 hour ago, Snowgeek93 said:

Yeah! More wonky snow maps to get our hopes up :classic_rolleyes:

With 3 weeks now until March I'm honestly losing interest in snow and winter at this point. Wish I could just hit the fast forward button on February :classic_ninja:

The pattern is coming back to what it was a week ago and the weeks before so these maps might not be wonky :classic_biggrin:

Edited by Stl
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should have a decent idea by late Sat, but some intriguing potential here Mon-Tues.  Right now most models lay out another fantastic lake effect scenario for Hamilton late Sunday night into late afternoon Monday.  Then, the actual system rolls in with models still not in agreement.  GDPS drops 25cm of snow.  GFS drops the kitchen sink. 

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Here's  it's the opposite they all agree on at least 15cm with both GFS , Euro and Ukmet on 25-30 at least.

There's too much time to go still  so we will see.

Edited by Stl

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tonight's new CMC and GFS giving over 30cm here.  The NAM is just coming into range and has heavy snow with ENE winds to 70km happening Tues morning….interesting

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00z CMC continues to show major accumulations for most of S ON. GFS does bring in some warmer air causing a change to rain and lower accumulations. Will be interesting to see what the euro has to say.

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CMC has a area of 17” of snow right around my house. Just east of that it’s showing over 20”:classic_blink:. Things would have to work out just right for this to happen but still fun to look at.

Edited by SNOWBOB11

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not liking the trends overnight for down here.  Heavy snow to start followed by a lot of everything else: pellets, fz rain, rain etc....  This track just isn't good for our area.  Only hope is that the low level E wind can hold the colder air on a little longer, but the WAA ahead of the low always wins out.  

Still think somewhere between Hamilton-Oakville has a shot at legit lake snow Sun night/ early MON.  But with the main low tracking further north, that starts to mess with the lake set-up.   Should know more by tonight and Sun morn...north of the GTA could get nailed from this one tho.   No complaints here to be honest.  I've had a 40+cm storm and 29cm storm in 10 days of each other here in Jan.  Areas north of the GTA seem to be below their snow norms and could use a good wallop. 

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47 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

00z euro

8CEF743A-00C0-4C56-AF52-0E20595C1F2D.thumb.png.7e4003ff47aaba7e3e6b5fff8c73e6b5.png

D6927505-1106-4B5C-BEF8-E0AFB29F424B.thumb.png.a9be5db83dc5d2a0c465bb0271860748.png

3E3C17CE-A718-4261-A2FA-A06DF890DB0C.thumb.png.d9115d5c05a87e63194837eeab7acd72.png

83878F27-0E16-4C65-AA89-53AEC54B38BB.thumb.png.09353c188bda8dafd8a1268f42321127.png

079A78AE-8F7E-4A4D-A5CA-557DF4D27F73.thumb.png.0e6c7ce289e9bfab913c2f5db5ae19b2.png

AFBE12A4-1B65-40F4-8EA8-8BA34C7E9BC1.thumb.png.0aec6410ce19dd0527c35d4ce54d779a.png

 

Im in the perfect spot it seem,  this is very similar to what GFS  and FV3 shows.

Edited by Stl

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12z GFS has a colder look than the previous run. More frozen precip for GTA area. 12z CMC showing a massive snowstorm still. No change over in precip type for the GTA on the CMC.

Edited by SNOWBOB11

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I stole this from another forum...12z Euro,i didnt see how the low tracks but to get these totals it must be something like the CMC

 

 

2093151821_download(2).thumb.png.82e8361889238bf2746e47abe26ada14.png

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Mother nature sure loves a tease :classic_rolleyes:

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