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Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

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SNOWBOB11

February 12th-14th Winter Storm

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Some eye-candy from the FIM-8. 6-hour snowfall amounts, in inches. Ottawa/Montreal and Maine and New Brunswick get hammered.

 

acsnw_sfc_f036.png

acsnw_sfc_f042.png

acsnw_sfc_f048.png

acsnw_sfc_f054.png

acsnw_sfc_f060.png

acsnw_sfc_f066.png

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43 minutes ago, frosty said:

Winter storm warnings posted for a wide swath of south western Ontario aka the rusty “Golden horseshoe”

for the southwest is zr warnings

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46 minutes ago, knorthern_knight said:

Some eye-candy from the FIM-8. 6-hour snowfall amounts, in inches. Ottawa/Montreal and Maine and New Brunswick get hammered.

 

acsnw_sfc_f036.png

acsnw_sfc_f042.png

acsnw_sfc_f048.png

acsnw_sfc_f054.png

acsnw_sfc_f060.png

acsnw_sfc_f066.png

 

That's between 12 to 17"  in the Island , good chances to be something memorable.

Edited by Stl

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those new EC graphics are GREAT.  It's about bloody time they get with the program.

 

Winter Storm Warning issued for most of us now….tomorrow morning will be wild. 

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18z NAM also reducing front end snows….

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

same trend on the 3k NAM especially for Hamilton-Burlington

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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not really liking the trends this afternoon.   18z HRRR gives Hamilton 8 hours of plain rain.  Earlier today no model except the Canadian had any plain rain here….

ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png

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I seem the only who is spared by this , GFS only cut 1.8 inch here but have a larger swatch on 15" + . Let's see what the FV3 say.

Edited by Stl

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2 minutes ago, Stl said:

I seem the only who is spared by this , GFS only cut 1.8 inch here but have a larger swatch on 15" + . Let's see what the FV3 say.

ya, no worries up your way.  This will be a great storm for you guys! 

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Ya it will. Euro has 30cm which is lower than the Nam and the GFS , RDPS has between 30 to 40cm. Im still cautious though as there still 24hr left.

For those in Toronto the Euro has 28 cm with no mixing at all.

 

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10 minutes ago, Stl said:

Ya it will. Euro has 30cm which is lower than the Nam and the GFS , RDPS has between 30 to 40cm. Im still cautious though as there still 24hr left.

For those in Toronto the Euro has 28 cm with no mixing at all.

 

Is that the 18z Euro showing 28 cm for TO ?

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The 12z , i don't have access to the 18z.

 

Here's the 18z RGEM Snow accumulative map

2019021118_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_sn_084.png

Edited by Stl

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This the ice pellets map

Pellets.png

Edited by Stl

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7 minutes ago, Stl said:

The 12z , i don't have access to the 18z.

 

Here's the 18z RGEM Snow accumulative map

2019021118_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_sn_084.png

18z Euro should be out soon but with the short range models backing off around here i guess it dosen`t really matter what it shows

you are in a great spot though enjoy the THUMP!

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Models are having a hell of a time with amounts in Southern Ontario. EC went from 5-15 to 15-25 to 10-20 for Kitchener...

Complicated storm that has everything. Going to be a mess with the winds.

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5 hours ago, BurlyWx said:

Anyone know if there will be a lot of convection, rgem showing some serious precip rates.  Either way 'poppy is going to be a little sloppy' with this storm.  Maybe the elusive thundersnow though?

Screen Shot 2019-02-11 at 12.41.03 PM.png

In this set up, I'd look right on the nose a potential dry slot for a chance at thundersnow.

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1 hour ago, Stl said:

Ya it will. Euro has 30cm which is lower than the Nam and the GFS , RDPS has between 30 to 40cm. Im still cautious though as there still 24hr left.

For those in Toronto the Euro has 28 cm with no mixing at all.

 

any other Euro data available?  Hamilton,  Waterloo, Brantford etc...?

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Yes here you are  :

Hamilton 15.8mm of snow then 6.3mm of rain followed by another 2.3mm which say snow but it say 2c.

Brantford 13.8mm of snow then 6.4mm of sleet followed by 1.9mm of snow at 1c and at the end 1.9mm of snow at -3c.

Waterloo 14.1mm of snow then 5.3mm of sleet followed by 2mm of snow at 1c and at the end 2.9mm of snow at -4c.

 

Edited by Stl

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So is this a non event for me in Newmarket, just north of the GTA?  Need to know as my son is driving to college in King City....where is everyone

Edited by Puttinqueen
update

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Looking at Markham and Barrie since i can't get Newmarket , Euro gives 24.2mm and Barrie has 18.7mm both are all snow.

I would say your close off 20cm based on this.

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