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SNOWBOB11

February 12th-14th Winter Storm

Staff Recommended Posts

43 minutes ago, dsichewski said:

What’s Guelph looking like? 10-15cm

Looks like safe bet... I'd say strong possibility of 15 with ice pellets. 

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1 hour ago, Stl said:

Yes here you are  :

Hamilton 15.8mm of snow then 6.3mm of rain followed by another 2.3mm which say snow but it say 2c.

Brantford 13.8mm of snow then 6.4mm of sleet followed by 1.9mm of snow at 1c and at the end 1.9mm of snow at -3c.

Waterloo 14.1mm of snow then 5.3mm of sleet followed by 2mm of snow at 1c and at the end 2.9mm of snow at -4c.

 

Yikes!  I'll take a different box please.

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What are your thoughts for St. Catharines area?  I’m wondering if my husbands gonna need the plows ready or if we will be mainly rain and ice pellets. 

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58 minutes ago, Markj138 said:

0z nam look a bit better

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

I wish they would make up their mind with the colours, I get nervous when I see pink 

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GFS 12z even more bearish on this storm. I'm surprised they haven't met in the middle.

Im going with NAM not because it's favourable on the snow but because I seriously don't know what GFS is looking at. Even Toronto totals lowered on this run... 

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There should be some super heavy snowfall rates for the GTA tomorrow as the system tracks in. Should be fun.

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Just now, Snowball said:

GFS 12z even more bearish on this storm. I'm surprised they haven't met in the middle.

Im going with NAM not because it's favourable on the snow but because I seriously don't know what GFS is looking at. Even Toronto totals lowered on this run... 

It’s strange that the GFS lowered totals. Especially since it’s been consistent with the higher amounts. It seems to be the only model with such a sudden drop in expected snow totals so I think it might be off with the last couple runs.

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Either the GFS is onto something and we're about bust majorly, or we can toss it out for this cycle

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I hate to say this but this type of a system can often be a disappointment for areas to the SW of Toronto. I think Hamilton and to the SW has a chance at seeing significantly less total snowfall and more PL as the warm air aloft moves in. I definitely could be wrong but for anyone SW of the GTA I’d be concerned about lesser accumulations. Not that you won’t see anything but not as much snow as to the NE.

Edited by SNOWBOB11

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I think it's off but I guess we'll only find out tomorrow. I don't see EC or TWN using it as guidance either.

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For what it's worth, the best map I've seen thus far. Craig Lavine posted it from a new EC service they are piloting, I'm curious how to source it now. I figure if you're on the northern fringe of the ranges you'll get closer to the upper end of the band, locally more...

DzJ_gKTXcAYGYkU.jpeg

Edited by Snowball
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Feb 12th 00Z GFS text dials back southern Ontario snowfall amounts way down. There will be rain in the middle of the event. Another system closely following on the 15th/16th will bring even more rain. EC doesn't appear to trust the GFS, and continues with Winter Storm Warnings for Toronto and Hamilton. May the best model win.

Ottawa/Montreal/Quebec get dumped on with straight snow in the first system. There's a small amount of rain or wet snow forecast for them in the second system.

Quote

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
 CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 12FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
    9 02/12 09Z   22     17    0.00         22     22    0.0            
   12 02/12 12Z   22     20    0.08 -SN     22     22    0.4  0.08    0.4
   15 02/12 15Z   26     24    0.17 PL      26     22    0.0  0.25      
   18 02/12 18Z   32     31    0.13 -RA     32     22    0.0  0.38      
   21 02/12 21Z   34     33    0.12 -RA     34     32    0.0  0.50      
   24 02/13 00Z   36     35    0.26 RA      36     32    0.0  0.76      
   27 02/13 03Z   35     34    0.07 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.83      
   30 02/13 06Z   31     29    0.01 -SN     36     32    0.0  0.84      
   33 02/13 09Z   28     26    0.04 -SN     31     28    0.4  0.88    0.4
   36 02/13 12Z   23     20    0.04 -SN     31     23    0.4  0.92    0.8
   39 02/13 15Z   23     18    0.03 -SN     23     22    0.3  0.95    1.1
   42 02/13 18Z   25     20    0.02 -SN     25     22    0.3  0.97    1.4
   45 02/13 21Z   25     20    0.02 -SN     25     24    0.3  0.99    1.7
   48 02/14 00Z   24     19    0.02 -SN     25     24    0.2  1.01    1.9
   51 02/14 03Z   22     18    0.00 -SN     24     22    0.0            
   54 02/14 06Z   20     18    0.00 -SN     24     20    0.0            
   57 02/14 09Z   20     18    0.00         21     20    0.0            
   60 02/14 12Z   23     21    0.02 -SN     23     20    0.3  0.02    0.3
   63 02/14 15Z   29     28    0.05 -SN     29     23    0.6  0.07    0.9
   66 02/14 18Z   34     34    0.00 -SN     34     23    0.0            
   69 02/14 21Z   35     33    0.00         35     34    0.0            
   72 02/15 00Z   34     32    0.06 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.06      
   75 02/15 03Z   34     33    0.12 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.18      
   78 02/15 06Z   34     34    0.10 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.28      
   81 02/15 09Z   34     34    0.11 -RA     35     34    0.2  0.39    0.2
   84 02/15 12Z   28     24    0.04 -SN     35     28    0.6  0.43    0.8
   87 02/15 15Z   25     19    0.01 -SN     28     25    0.0  0.44      
   90 02/15 18Z   25     18    0.01 -SN     28     24    0.0  0.45      
   93 02/15 21Z   24     18    0.01 -SN     24     24    0.0  0.46      
   96 02/16 00Z   23     17    0.01 -SN     24     23    0.0  0.47      
   99 02/16 03Z   19     14    0.00         23     19    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
 CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 12FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
    9 02/12 09Z   19     16    0.00         19     19    0.0            
   12 02/12 12Z   20     18    0.03 -SN     20     19    0.4  0.03    0.4
   15 02/12 15Z   24     22    0.08 -SN     24     20    0.9  0.11    1.3
   18 02/12 18Z   28     26    0.14 -SN     28     20    1.4  0.25    2.7
   21 02/12 21Z   31     31    0.09 -FZRN   31     28    0.0  0.34      
   24 02/13 00Z   34     33    0.17 -RA     34     28    0.0  0.51      
   27 02/13 03Z   34     34    0.18 RA      34     33    0.0  0.69      
   30 02/13 06Z   33     31    0.02 -SN     34     33    0.1  0.71    0.1
   33 02/13 09Z   30     27    0.03 -SN     33     30    0.3  0.74    0.4
   36 02/13 12Z   23     20    0.02 -SN     33     23    0.3  0.76    0.7
   39 02/13 15Z   22     18    0.01 -SN     23     21    0.3  0.77    1.0
   42 02/13 18Z   23     18    0.01 -SN     23     21    0.2  0.78    1.2
   45 02/13 21Z   23     18    0.02 -SN     24     23    0.3  0.80    1.5
   48 02/14 00Z   22     18    0.01 -SN     24     22    0.0  0.81      
   51 02/14 03Z   22     19    0.01 -SN     23     22    0.0  0.82      
   54 02/14 06Z   22     18    0.00 -SN     23     21    0.0            
   57 02/14 09Z   20     18    0.00         21     20    0.0            
   60 02/14 12Z   20     18    0.00 -SN     21     19    0.0            
   63 02/14 15Z   25     24    0.02 -SN     25     20    0.3  0.02    0.3
   66 02/14 18Z   32     32    0.00 -SN     32     20    0.0            
   69 02/14 21Z   33     33    0.01 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.01      
   72 02/15 00Z   33     31    0.03 -RA     33     32    0.0  0.04      
   75 02/15 03Z   34     33    0.07 -RA     34     33    0.1  0.11    0.1
   78 02/15 06Z   34     33    0.03 -SN     34     33    0.2  0.14    0.3
   81 02/15 09Z   34     33    0.05 -SN     34     34    0.2  0.19    0.5
   84 02/15 12Z   30     28    0.04 -SN     34     30    0.3  0.23    0.8
   87 02/15 15Z   24     20    0.00         30     24    0.0            
   90 02/15 18Z   24     19    0.00 -SN     30     24    0.0            
   93 02/15 21Z   24     19    0.01 -SN     24     24    0.0  0.01      
   96 02/16 00Z   21     17    0.00 -SN     24     21    0.0            
   99 02/16 03Z   17     13    0.00         21     17    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
 CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 12FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
    9 02/12 09Z   22     16    0.00         22     21    0.0            
   12 02/12 12Z   22     21    0.08 -SN     22     21    0.8  0.08    0.8
   15 02/12 15Z   27     25    0.16 SN      27     22    2.0  0.24    2.8
   18 02/12 18Z   31     30    0.18 RA      31     22    0.5  0.42    3.3
   21 02/12 21Z   33     33    0.10 -RA     33     31    0.0  0.52      
   24 02/13 00Z   36     35    0.20 -RA     35     31    0.0  0.72      
   27 02/13 03Z   36     35    0.14 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.86      
   30 02/13 06Z   33     31    0.08 -SN     37     33    0.6  0.94    0.6
   33 02/13 09Z   31     28    0.02 -SN     33     31    0.3  0.96    0.9
   36 02/13 12Z   27     23    0.02 -SN     33     27    0.3  0.98    1.2
   39 02/13 15Z   24     19    0.01 -SN     27     24    0.2  0.99    1.4
   42 02/13 18Z   26     20    0.01 -SN     27     24    0.2  1.00    1.6
   45 02/13 21Z   26     19    0.01 -SN     26     26    0.2  1.01    1.8
   48 02/14 00Z   25     20    0.01 -SN     26     25    0.2  1.02    2.0
   51 02/14 03Z   24     19    0.01 -SN     25     24    0.0  1.03      
   54 02/14 06Z   23     19    0.00 -SN     25     23    0.0            
   57 02/14 09Z   22     19    0.00         23     22    0.0            
   60 02/14 12Z   22     20    0.00         23     22    0.0            
   63 02/14 15Z   28     26    0.01 -SN     28     22    0.3  0.01    0.3
   66 02/14 18Z   34     33    0.01 -RA     34     22    0.0  0.02      
   69 02/14 21Z   35     33    0.01         35     34    0.0  0.03      
   72 02/15 00Z   34     32    0.03 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.06      
   75 02/15 03Z   35     33    0.06 -RA     35     34    0.1  0.12    0.1
   78 02/15 06Z   36     34    0.04 -RA     36     34    0.0  0.16      
   81 02/15 09Z   35     34    0.06 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.22      
   84 02/15 12Z   34     32    0.06 -SN     36     34    0.3  0.28    0.3
   87 02/15 15Z   29     22    0.00 -SN     34     29    0.0            
   90 02/15 18Z   27     19    0.00 -SN     34     27    0.0            
   93 02/15 21Z   27     17    0.01 -SN     27     26    0.0  0.01      
   96 02/16 00Z   25     17    0.01 -SN     27     25    0.0  0.02      
   99 02/16 03Z   22     14    0.00 -SN     25     22    0.0            
  102 02/16 06Z   19     12    0.00 -SN     25     19    0.0            
  105 02/16 09Z   17     10    0.00         19     17    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
 CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 12FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
    9 02/12 09Z   21     16    0.00         21     21    0.0            
   12 02/12 12Z   22     19    0.02 -SN     22     21    0.2  0.02    0.2
   15 02/12 15Z   25     23    0.11 -SN     25     22    1.5  0.13    1.7
   18 02/12 18Z   28     27    0.10 -SN     28     22    1.0  0.23    2.7
   21 02/12 21Z   32     30    0.09 -RA     32     28    0.2  0.32    2.9
   24 02/13 00Z   34     33    0.15 -RA     34     28    0.0  0.47      
   27 02/13 03Z   35     35    0.14 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.61      
   30 02/13 06Z   35     33    0.11 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.72      
   33 02/13 09Z   32     29    0.01 -SN     35     32    0.1  0.73    0.1
   36 02/13 12Z   29     24    0.01 -SN     35     29    0.1  0.74    0.2
   39 02/13 15Z   26     20    0.01 -SN     29     26    0.0  0.75      
   42 02/13 18Z   26     19    0.02 -SN     29     25    0.2  0.77    0.2
   45 02/13 21Z   26     20    0.01 -SN     27     26    0.1  0.78    0.3
   48 02/14 00Z   26     19    0.00 -SN     27     25    0.1          0.4
   51 02/14 03Z   26     20    0.00         26     25    0.1          0.5
   54 02/14 06Z   26     20    0.00         26     25    0.1          0.6
   57 02/14 09Z   24     19    0.00         26     24    0.0            
   60 02/14 12Z   23     19    0.00         26     23    0.0            
   63 02/14 15Z   26     23    0.01 -SN     26     23    0.3  0.01    0.3
   66 02/14 18Z   31     29    0.01 -SN     31     23    0.1  0.02    0.4
   69 02/14 21Z   34     32    0.01 -RA     34     31    0.0  0.03      
   72 02/15 00Z   35     32    0.03 -RA     35     31    0.0  0.06      
   75 02/15 03Z   35     33    0.07 -RA     35     35    0.3  0.13    0.3
   78 02/15 06Z   36     34    0.05 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.18      
   81 02/15 09Z   35     34    0.04 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.22      
   84 02/15 12Z   35     32    0.02 -RA     36     35    0.1  0.24    0.1
   87 02/15 15Z   30     24    0.00         35     30    0.0            
   90 02/15 18Z   28     21    0.00         35     28    0.0            
   93 02/15 21Z   28     20    0.00 -SN     28     28    0.0            
   96 02/16 00Z   26     19    0.01 -SN     28     25    0.0  0.01      
   99 02/16 03Z   23     17    0.00         25     23    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
 CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 12FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   18 02/12 18Z    8      4    0.00          8      0    0.0            
   21 02/12 21Z    8      8    0.09 -SN      9      8    1.5  0.09    1.5
   24 02/13 00Z   14     13    0.18 -SN     14      8    2.9  0.27    4.4
   27 02/13 03Z   21     20    0.25 SN      21     14    3.6  0.52    8.0
   30 02/13 06Z   23     21    0.25 SN      23     14    3.4  0.77   11.4
   33 02/13 09Z   24     22    0.21 SN      24     23    2.6  0.98   14.0
   36 02/13 12Z   27     25    0.10 SN      27     23    1.2  1.08   15.2
   39 02/13 15Z   31     30    0.07 -SN     31     27    0.6  1.15   15.8
   42 02/13 18Z   31     29    0.03 -SN     33     27    0.3  1.18   16.1
   45 02/13 21Z   27     23    0.05 -SN     31     27    0.6  1.23   16.7
   48 02/14 00Z   25     20    0.04 -SN     31     25    0.5  1.27   17.2
   51 02/14 03Z   24     20    0.02 -SN     25     24    0.3  1.29   17.5
   54 02/14 06Z   22     18    0.01 -SN     25     22    0.1  1.30   17.6
   57 02/14 09Z   17     13    0.00 -SN     22     17    0.0            
   60 02/14 12Z   11      7    0.00 -SN     22     11    0.0            
   63 02/14 15Z   15     11    0.00         15     10    0.0            
   66 02/14 18Z   21     17    0.00         21     10    0.0            
   69 02/14 21Z   25     21    0.00         25     21    0.0            
   72 02/15 00Z   24     22    0.00         25     21    0.0            
   75 02/15 03Z   23     22    0.01         24     23    0.0  0.01      
   78 02/15 06Z   24     23    0.05 -SN     24     23    0.5  0.06    0.5
   81 02/15 09Z   25     24    0.10 -SN     25     24    0.7  0.16    1.2
   84 02/15 12Z   29     29    0.06 -SN     29     24    0.4  0.22    1.6
   87 02/15 15Z   35     35    0.11 -RA     35     30    0.0  0.33      
   90 02/15 18Z   35     35    0.06 -RA     35     30    0.0  0.39      
   93 02/15 21Z   32     27    0.01 -SN     35     32    0.0  0.40      
   96 02/16 00Z   27     23    0.00 -SN     35     27    0.0            
   99 02/16 03Z   24     20    0.01 -SN     27     24    0.2  0.01    0.2
  102 02/16 06Z   18     13    0.00 -SN     27     18    0.0            
  105 02/16 09Z   14     10    0.00         18     14    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
 CYUL Montréal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 12FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   18 02/12 18Z    5      3    0.00          5     -4    0.0            
   21 02/12 21Z   10      9    0.01         10      5    0.0  0.01      
   24 02/13 00Z   18     17    0.13 -SN     18      5    2.1  0.14    2.1
   27 02/13 03Z   23     22    0.26 SN      23     19    3.8  0.40    5.9
   30 02/13 06Z   24     23    0.46 SN      24     19    6.4  0.86   12.3
   33 02/13 09Z   26     25    0.44 SN      26     24    5.8  1.30   18.1
   36 02/13 12Z   28     26    0.29 SN      28     24    3.6  1.59   21.7
   39 02/13 15Z   31     30    0.15 -SN     31     28    1.2  1.74   22.9
   42 02/13 18Z   32     32    0.05 -SN     32     28    0.3  1.79   23.2
   45 02/13 21Z   29     26    0.03 -SN     33     29    0.3  1.82   23.5
   48 02/14 00Z   27     23    0.01 -SN     33     27    0.1  1.83   23.6
   51 02/14 03Z   24     20    0.01 -SN     27     24    0.0  1.84      
   54 02/14 06Z   25     21    0.01 -SN     27     23    0.0  1.85      
   57 02/14 09Z   22     18    0.01 -SN     25     22    0.1  1.86    0.1
   60 02/14 12Z   18     14    0.01 -SN     25     18    0.0  1.87      
   63 02/14 15Z   16     13    0.00         17     16    0.0            
   66 02/14 18Z   19     16    0.00         19     16    0.0            
   69 02/14 21Z   20     17    0.00         20     19    0.0            
   72 02/15 00Z   13     11    0.00         20     13    0.0            
   75 02/15 03Z   18     16    0.00         18     14    0.0            
   78 02/15 06Z   19     18    0.01 -SN     19     14    0.2  0.01    0.2
   81 02/15 09Z   22     22    0.08 -SN     22     19    0.9  0.09    1.1
   84 02/15 12Z   27     26    0.11 -SN     27     19    1.1  0.20    2.2
   87 02/15 15Z   33     33    0.06 -RA     33     27    0.1  0.26    2.3
   90 02/15 18Z   36     36    0.09 -RA     36     27    0.0  0.35      
   93 02/15 21Z   36     36    0.11 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.46      
   96 02/16 00Z   30     25    0.01 -SN     36     30    0.1  0.47    0.1
   99 02/16 03Z   26     21    0.00         30     26    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
 CYQB Québec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 12FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   24 02/13 00Z   16     10    0.00         19     15    0.0            
   27 02/13 03Z   16     14    0.03 -SN     16     16    0.5  0.03    0.5
   30 02/13 06Z   17     15    0.13 -SN     17     16    2.4  0.16    2.9
   33 02/13 09Z   18     16    0.17 SN      18     17    3.0  0.33    5.9
   36 02/13 12Z   20     18    0.28 SN      20     17    4.5  0.61   10.4
   39 02/13 15Z   23     19    0.17 SN      23     20    2.4  0.78   12.8
   42 02/13 18Z   22     21    0.14 SN      24     20    2.1  0.92   14.9
   45 02/13 21Z   21     19    0.06 -SN     23     21    0.9  0.98   15.8
   48 02/14 00Z   19     18    0.05 -SN     23     19    0.8  1.03   16.6
   51 02/14 03Z   18     17    0.04 -SN     19     18    0.7  1.07   17.3
   54 02/14 06Z   18     17    0.03 -SN     20     18    0.6  1.10   17.9
   57 02/14 09Z   20     19    0.04 -SN     20     18    0.7  1.14   18.6
   60 02/14 12Z   15     13    0.01 -SN     20     15    0.1  1.15   18.7
   63 02/14 15Z   20     16    0.00         20     14    0.0            
   66 02/14 18Z   24     19    0.01         24     14    0.1  0.01    0.1
   69 02/14 21Z   23     19    0.01         24     23    0.1  0.02    0.2
   72 02/15 00Z   16     14    0.00         24     16    0.1          0.3
   75 02/15 03Z   11     10    0.00         16     11    0.0            
   78 02/15 06Z    9      8    0.00         16      9    0.0            
   81 02/15 09Z   12     10    0.00         12      9    0.0            
   84 02/15 12Z   18     16    0.06 -SN     18      9    0.8  0.06    0.8
   87 02/15 15Z   25     24    0.15 SN      25     18    1.9  0.21    2.7
   90 02/15 18Z   30     30    0.12 -SN     30     18    0.9  0.33    3.6
   93 02/15 21Z   33     33    0.15 -SN     33     30    0.7  0.48    4.3
   96 02/16 00Z   34     34    0.19 SN      34     30    0.8  0.67    5.1
   99 02/16 03Z   29     26    0.06 -SN     34     29    0.7  0.73    5.8
  102 02/16 06Z   24     21    0.02 -SN     34     24    0.2  0.75    6.0
  105 02/16 09Z   21     17    0.02 -SN     24     21    0.2  0.77    6.2
  108 02/16 12Z   14     10    0.01 -SN     24     14    0.2  0.78    6.4
  111 02/16 15Z   14     10    0.00 -SN     14     13    0.0            
  114 02/16 18Z   16     12    0.01 -SN     16     13    0.0  0.01      
  117 02/16 21Z   16     12    0.01 -SN     16     16    0.2  0.02    0.2
  120 02/17 00Z   12      9    0.00 -SN     16     12    0.0            
  123 02/17 03Z    5      2    0.00         12      5    0.0

 

 

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Snow started, blowing sideways here. Radar looks quite intense down London way. 

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man...true blizzard conditions the last hour.  Crazy stuff.  Hope the mix holds off till late aft.

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Any info/maps for Sou'west Nova Scotia would be great appreciated. :)

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Snow moving in as I type this. Looking nice and wintry outside :classic_happy:

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1 hour ago, NSGIRL said:

Any info/maps for Sou'west Nova Scotia would be great appreciated. :)

Looks like you will get some heavy snows from the onset of the system moving in. As the warm air moves in you should see a change over in precip type to ice pellets and freezing rain then eventually rain. Here’s some maps.

00z euro

3EDAE581-ECDD-450D-925A-1AC108609D5A.thumb.png.39e4a795b511c684bcb5f7ebba2401df.png

24B04906-A684-4BEC-A397-547B38C9D686.thumb.png.a8ddfaa3c681ddca770dba87a2fa8967.png

8E456F43-3D1A-4F80-9993-C8AEB6C0364A.thumb.png.13ad49231e7aa17d1634be68edc492c9.png

91759891-F9F6-4362-8D45-7EFD46CCCAD9.thumb.png.cc10b82f68e05c590891af03d5a23263.png

06z RGEM

CE8B6530-2778-4D43-8797-79F474BDA548.thumb.png.4d8212fe01f00d86bbbd72d23b2d26b3.png

F2A04D82-E672-48A7-B791-9EA4F7E6AC77.thumb.png.049eaa410569820adf474c10241ca793.png

5EB3905F-BAF3-4557-BADA-0496763FCBB3.thumb.png.80d0aa0a189c890bb41e448f5bb83979.png

FA54F127-3099-4802-BF43-6BBEED4F6969.thumb.png.9664556b13fcfc64115f620ae79929f9.png

06z GFS snowfall map

EE0D60D0-3F8A-4253-A6FF-2201CA5D131B.thumb.png.1de3229cf8c2b595d66e348ce876efee.png

It would seem that the GFS/RGEM have more total snowfall for you than the euro. All do have the eventual change over in precip type.

Edited by SNOWBOB11

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Some 36 dbz bands around Toronto right now. Should see some times of heavy snows and blizzard like conditions with the strong winds.

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blizzard conditions all morning just switched to heavy ice pellets…several hours earlier than forecasted.  My last measurement was 11cm.  Doubt we'll even hit 15 unless things switch back to snow.  New forecast from EC calling for 10cm of PELLETS this aft…ouch.  Anyone who didn't shovel the 10+ cm earlier is gonna hate it later. lol

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16 minutes ago, HamiltonWx said:

blizzard conditions all morning just switched to heavy ice pellets…several hours earlier than forecasted.  My last measurement was 11cm.  Doubt we'll even hit 15 unless things switch back to snow.  New forecast from EC calling for 10cm of PELLETS this aft…ouch.  Anyone who didn't shovel the 10+ cm earlier is gonna hate it later. lol

Brantford is less than you in Hamilton. 5-6 cms of snow and about a cm of ice pellet so far.  If it goes to rain even for a couple of hours it will be brutal. 

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yup, as I suspected, storms tracking this far NW just don't pan out for big snowstorms here.  Way too many obstacles to overcome, WAA being the main one.  The amount of IP pounding down is insane…would have easily hit 15-20cm of snow if the switch had held off until mid afternoon.  

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Newmarket is all snow so far, but nothing heavy.  I've seen worse snow squalls than this; and to think I took the day off as a vacation day so I wouldn't have to drive... I suppose it could always  change...I can't see 20 cm like they are saying

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