Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...
US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

Phased Vort

February 19-22, 2019 | Commander-in-Chief Winter Storm

Staff Recommended Posts

Hello everyone!

As we continue our journey through the 2018-19 winter season and endure disappointment when it comes to the snow aspect of winter, our next storm chance comes around the President´s Day holiday time frame, which I then took the opportunity to dub this one the Commander-in-Chief winter storm. Let´s just hope it does come with all the splendor that the title brings with it.

This storm could be an overrunning type of storm that comes from the central Rockies region and tracks eastward across the country. As with any storms 10 days out, a few outcomes are on the table. Let´s talk about them.

  1. A flatter storm crossing the Southern Plains which may amplify enough after crossing the Appalachian mountains as it emerges over the Atlantic Ocean somewhere near or south of Long Island;
  2. A more amplified storm that could track ENE/NE and pass by south of the Great lakes and when possibly cut tracking over Michigan or western NY,
  3. Option 1 but with a coastal redevelopment over the offshore waters near VA, which would then track to the ENE or NE.
  4. A primary low track the could take it over Minnesota and then cyclogenesis occurs far south over South or North Carolina or just offshore near either one of those two states. 

Given the conflicting teleconnections signals, it´s perfectly fine to expect the possibility of different outcomes at the 10 days out range.

Please take a look at the teleconnections outputs from the ESRL/PSD map room and the EPS ones:

4indices.thumb.png.7c79cf4a5f9ec5c9878e07601183c3d5.png

epo.png.a72c72f53ee7da7aabea07f766a776b6.pngnao.png.649e8ccfee05eb572b21b38524f96085.pngpna.png.52068f353ff44416798fb1669cbe7c52.png

 

Ensemble guidance support has been so far not too clear, which is not alarming. Some EPS control runs have hinted at this storm affecting the region. However, what is interesting is that the GFS, FV3, and ECMWF have been showing a storm during this time impacting the region. The GFS and its successor FV3 are more on then overrunning bandwagon while the ECMWF is playing with the idea of a coastal redevelopment near the VA offshore waters.

The images will not be posted because they are readily available on well-known sites sources.

Track Scenario Maps

573475820_Feb19-21Stormscenario1.thumb.png.06f5d1a22f993a511823b0407e4cdbb1.png1117967364_Feb19-21Stormscenario2.thumb.png.8fed66751e99b8f1c1ca6fe05d39f3ae.png

1588392841_Feb19-21Stormscenario3.thumb.png.8a7b74fe6b939d094776305e01f2e5ec.png1245513757_Feb19-21Stormscenario4.thumb.png.f07692285f5c339b057b9bdeb467ccb0.png

 

Perhaps a more simplistic thread opener, but still respecting the need to content addition and textual descriptions, may work to make this storm potential a candidate to take over the Commander-in-Chief title.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm hoping it can spread some love to  all of us.  Something to watch!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z gfs.   Definitely  worth watching.  Still got time for this to change and I'm sure it will more than a few times...

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for contributing to the discussion.

Yep. It´s been a rather constant theme so far with one.

Let´s see until how close to the to the actual day of the event, this one stays on the colder side.

  • Love it! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's see what shows up by the weekend, long range has been sub par all season, esp the euro

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Commander-in-Chief storm continues to be much alive on the models.

Yesterday´s run showed to storm possibility including the 12Z ECMWF.

Today´s 00Z runs also have the storm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Love it. Commander and Chief shall speak.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Certainly a different and refreshing look here. I dont want to get ahead of myself but it looks like this has potential to be a one-two punch. Could be a special event. Ok Now that I cursed it, we can all close down winter.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW. WPC!! Looks like a nice cluster of lows in 4 corners states area . That's  the storm for this time period!  Gonna be interesting to track!!

 

5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems like the piece hanging back on the GFS's depiction of the 2/15-17 storm may remove space for a high to push south ahead of this system. Looks like it may be a warmer start for this run... the merry-go-round of solutions!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps this sets up the stage for the second low...? Geez, this winter has been so bad I don't even know what I'm saying. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.png.8fad4380da2c90203e67578474c3e285.png

1 minute ago, shaulov4 said:

Perhaps this sets up the stage for the second low...? Geez, this winter has been so bad I don't even know what I'm saying. 

Or maybe I do, good lord I am already doubting myself at this point.

Might be a perfect setup on this run...coming out of the gulf

image.png.2382df307625ba98dba1b006b42ba6b3.png

Oh if this one would just roll.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.png.9a2aa9dbbb1c96e889031d448176c638.png

Yes yes let the madness continue 

Without the first storm, it allows the one behind it go further north

image.png.8161ed613e3663de3dcdc336fc48662f.png

Edited by shaulov4
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A bit of a phase going on. Not as consolidated as might be ideal, but still very encouraging going forward

gfs_z500_vort_us_29.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The flavors of these brews are starting to smell really nice.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.png.5160f1b7375ee839369ac801a378905f.png

OT but look at that widespread cold that comes behind it 😳

2 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

The flavors of these brews are starting to smell really nice.

ahh yes, but let them boil too long and it might just become spoiled 😉👍

Edited by shaulov4
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's early but shaping up to be our best shot at a true snow event in over a month!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

11 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

image.png.5160f1b7375ee839369ac801a378905f.png

OT but look at that widespread cold that comes behind it 😳

ahh yes, but let them boil too long and it might just become spoiled 😉👍

Indeed. End up as vapor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Winter_warlock said:

It's early but shaping up to be our best shot at a true snow event in over a month!!

Hard to disagree, ....but I can make my case 😂

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×