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Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

Phased Vort

February 19-22, 2019 | Commander-in-Chief Winter Storm

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CMC says "More of the same! More of the same!"

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

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8 minutes ago, AceGikmo said:

CMC says "More of the same! More of the same!"

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

Not really more like "I'm confused, I'm confused"

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31 minutes ago, AceGikmo said:

@shaulov4 @Phased Vort Man, everyone's missing the 12z fun! :classic_tongue::dancing-banana-homer-simpson-smiley-emoticon:

 

Or we're not willing to be baited ... again

In all actuality, this season has been better for larger snow events (>3") IMBY than last year so there's something for me to be excited for later this season. 

It's worth noting that this storm will be about 40 days after the only good eastern snowstorm south of Maine this season (Jan 12-14 thread). There could be a modicum of truth to the idea that it takes ~40 days for shortwaves to circle the planet. 

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie
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1 hour ago, Winter_warlock said:

It's early but shaping up to be our best shot at a true snow event in over a month!!

Bring it on!

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1 minute ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

850 mb temps with those images:

  Hide contents

 

160650758_2-1112zEuro850h192.png.a9f98366efbc990d363b6cbc9bee2c6c.png858282278_2-1112zEuro850h216.png.4d9497d30335f2cea24f9854187c5e9c.png

 

 

Certainly not a concern at this point

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15 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

850 mb temps with those images:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

160650758_2-1112zEuro850h192.png.a9f98366efbc990d363b6cbc9bee2c6c.png858282278_2-1112zEuro850h216.png.4d9497d30335f2cea24f9854187c5e9c.png

 

 

I'm not too worried about Temps. A week out that will become clearer later :)

Nice to still see the storm 7 days out.  But model projections this far out will change  😉

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18 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

They're quite concerning to me. 

I'd be more concerned if there wasn't any HP shown in place for the setup, which the euro for example does (1036 in fact)

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Folks that benefit from cold air damming don't need to worry about it as much, but that's not me so I'll continue to be concerned with the amount of warm air in play. It's especially concerning to me considering the magnitude of southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. 

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25 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Folks that benefit from cold air damming don't need to worry about it as much, but that's not me so I'll continue to be concerned with the amount of warm air in play. It's especially concerning to me considering the magnitude of southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. 

Makes complete sense, however until we can determine the exact track and dynamics with this kind of setup, I'll track at ease for now. Plus euro over amplyfies.

Edited by shaulov4
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1 hour ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Folks that benefit from cold air damming don't need to worry about it as much, but that's not me so I'll continue to be concerned with the amount of warm air in play. It's especially concerning to me considering the magnitude of southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. 

I'm a little confused with this statement StL...like my location is not a CAD location...so fzr is not a threat here. But locales that are CAD-prone (like cold hollows) like those across the central Apps, could see problems with another influx of warm air that you talk about. But maybe we're not talking about the same things here....

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image.png.8a3d32fbfdb453f2d8da3f8d97b432b9.png\

First system way more robust and north 

I think shes going to cut north

Edited by shaulov4

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Yay!  .5" of liquid hitting the frozen ground.  At least this will change.

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.41  LON =  -73.25

                                            12Z FEB11
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
TUE 12Z 19-FEB -12.4    -8.0    1035      70       5    0.00     555     529    
TUE 18Z 19-FEB  -2.6    -6.2    1031      39      18    0.00     558     534    
WED 00Z 20-FEB  -4.7    -3.5    1028      55      98    0.00     560     539    
WED 06Z 20-FEB  -4.3    -2.1    1021      85      99    0.09     558     542    
WED 12Z 20-FEB  -2.6     1.8    1009      90      99    0.49     556     549    
WED 18Z 20-FEB  -1.4    -1.7    1006      82      89    0.17     550     545    
THU 00Z 21-FEB  -2.8    -5.5    1015      78      66    0.02     547     535    
THU 06Z 21-FEB  -7.3    -4.0    1024      75      15    0.00     551     533    
THU 12Z 21-FEB -11.9    -4.6    1029      78      23    0.00     555     533    

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58 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

but what comes after it is the question

image.png.fd5a6ada80a1f0864df6b7839c445bc2.png

Or transfer coming?....

Just rain for the coast over and over again 

Well see. still early...   odds favor inland this winter

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