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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

Phased Vort

February 19-22, 2019 | Commander-in-Chief Winter Storm

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Eye candy for now. It will never happen but fun to look at,. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-02-11 at 7.02.25 PM.png

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26 minutes ago, wtkidz said:

Eye candy for now. It will never happen but fun to look at,. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-02-11 at 7.02.25 PM.png

Still 7+ days out so saying it will never happen is not an educated post especially  with nothing to show to back that statement up

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32 minutes ago, Winter_warlock said:

Still 7+ days out so saying it will never happen is not an educated post especially  with nothing to show to back that statement up

Is there anything to back that statement up? No.  But theres reason to be skeptical if scenarios that are almost unheard of.  

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8 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

Is there anything to back that statement up? No.  But theres reason to be skeptical if scenarios that are almost unheard of.  

Being skeptical  is one thing but to say something  is NEVER going to happen is another.  

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12Z EPS Control left and EPS 24hour precipitation right:

Fun times ahead!

eps_ptype_c01_conus_216.thumb.png.1089210b22af2ba523243c95803f37ba.png993254871_14-kmEPSUSAUnitedStates24-hPrecipitation(1).gif.93fe1664a82fadbf104ca76818528bd0.gif

 

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6 minutes ago, Winter_warlock said:

Being skeptical  is one thing but to say something  is NEVER going to happen is another.  

Semantics.  To clarify.  This  is possible but highly unlikely.

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9 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

12Z EPS Control left and EPS 24hour precipitation right:

Fun times ahead!

eps_ptype_c01_conus_216.thumb.png.1089210b22af2ba523243c95803f37ba.png993254871_14-kmEPSUSAUnitedStates24-hPrecipitation(1).gif.93fe1664a82fadbf104ca76818528bd0.gif

 

Yep. Definitely looking active!!!

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1 minute ago, wtkidz said:

Semantics.  To clarify.  This  is possible but highly unlikely.

Actually more context than semantics.  In past years if I saw that I would say great, it may shift north or south, but someone is getting a good storm.  This year, I have no confidence it will look anything like that in 2-3 days much less 7 days.  I do keep hoping that eventually this changes, and every system has the chance to be the one that does change it, and we return to a pattern where there is a little more reliability in the models 5-7 days out.

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9 minutes ago, wtkidz said:

Semantics.  To clarify.  This  is possible but highly unlikely.

Still 7+ days out.  Alot can and will change with models.  At this point anything is likely.   Just gotta see how the pattern evolves , it's only mid February 

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21 minutes ago, JonSnow said:

Actually more context than semantics.  In past years if I saw that I would say great, it may shift north or south, but someone is getting a good storm.  This year, I have no confidence it will look anything like that in 2-3 days much less 7 days.  I do keep hoping that eventually this changes, and every system has the chance to be the one that does change it, and we return to a pattern where there is a little more reliability in the models 5-7 days out.

It's because of the screaming split flow over the Pacific. It's a horrific pattern for models to grab hold of, too many moving parts and so much energy being slung that the models have no idea what to focus on. This is the year surprise storms take place. 

 

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14 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

It's because of the screaming split flow over the Pacific. It's a horrific pattern for models to grab hold of, too many moving parts and so much energy being slung that the models have no idea what to focus on. This is the year surprise storms take place. 

 

Agreed. It's a very active patten. Too many things going on. Alot of possibilities.  And it's mid february. Still a month and and half to go. Remember...last few years we've have big snow storms in march! :)

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3 minutes ago, Weather Badger said:

Good googly moogly...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

Moves pretty fast though so can't imagine snow totals would be epic.  Is the NAO projected to be negative around this time?  If so perhaps some blocking could slow it down some?

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Euro on 18th.....

 

Got this storm on 18th. Right after storm on 16th to 17th. Then we have another on 21st coming. Very busy and confusing lol gotta sort out the dates lol 😉ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7-1.png

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WPC LATEST

 

SHOWS STORM ON 18TH AND THE STORM ON 16TH BOTH ON SE COAST. GONNA BE A BUSY TIME IN HERE :)

 

 

5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

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Depending on how the timing of the storm evolves on the models the next couple of days, we may need to adjust the dates to remove the 18th and include the 21st, if the current time frame model thinking becomes established between February 19th through 21st, which would reflect what was proposed by the thread opening post.

Besides that, by removing the 18th, and in case the little system on the 18th actually ends up warranting a thread, I will ask someone to volunteer to open a thread for it a couple of days from now. The poster who takes on that responsibility, will need to include data from different models and add an explanation of what the event is, it´s evolution and how it may impact the region.

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00Z ECMWF left and 06Z FV3 right.

Again just like with the storm for the February 16-17 thread, the ECMWF is flatter than the FV3 GFS, even with its over amplification bias.

157885614_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNortheastUSPrecipTypeMSLP.gif.722712a3073af07e80da88f1bde8e847.giffv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh174-222.gif.092e69cc265659526360d9fc5e728d9f.gif

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13 hours ago, wtkidz said:

Eye candy for now. It will never happen but fun to look at,. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-02-11 at 7.02.25 PM.png

I agree with your comment .. eye Candy is all we got this season lol ... here’s something that’ll make everyone in eastern US happy .. there’s no thread for 22nd so I’ll post this here 

7FC3CC55-1DFD-4730-A770-169E74868168.png

Edited by Jblizz68

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1 minute ago, Jblizz68 said:

I agree with your comment .. eye Candy is all we got this season lol ... here’s something that’ll make everyone in eastern US happy .. there’s no thread for 27th so I’ll post this here 

7FC3CC55-1DFD-4730-A770-169E74868168.png

Oh, for the love of God already...

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this  time  period  has peaked  my  interest. could be first  big  snowstorm for the MA  region 

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