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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

ohiobuckeye45

February 15th-17th Winter storm

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Might as well get this started for the northerners 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

download (2).png

download (1).png

Edited by ohiobuckeye45

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The UK gives the OV some sliver of hope but it starts out as some elongated low where thermals are probably ugly at the onset 

UKMET 17 km East Coast USA MSLP (1).gif

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Ok I'm in..keepum coming. lol

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You started thread too early...lol.

My thoughts preliminary thoughts are that St. Louis to Detroit good snow, lighter snows in lower OV wrap around.

 

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CLE already mentioning the above shown/noted deformation snow.

Quote

A cold front and the main core of the storm moves through our area
on Friday night with temperatures quickly dropping. Models show a
signal for a trowal or deformation zone forming on the northwest
side of the upper level track which would bring a round of snowfall
to the area Friday night into Saturday

 

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26 minutes ago, Grace said:

You started thread too early...lol.

My thoughts preliminary thoughts are that St. Louis to Detroit good snow, lighter snows in lower OV wrap around.

 

Easy to create them when I've already conceded it as a non OV storm haha. 

The setup the following week looks like finally a setup for the OV

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1 hour ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

Easy to create them when I've already conceded it as a non OV storm haha. 

The setup the following week looks like finally a setup for the OV

 

Agree on your last thought there. Go check out my post in the winter LR. 

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Interesting development on the UK/6Z GFS. Looks like the flow stays entirely split now and this system wanders off way north as a FROPA leaving the southern energy behind for late week/early next week. The UK takes it south and looks like a Tennessee valley hit whereas the GFS is slower and has an OV hit

Edited by ohiobuckeye45
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WPC liking Chicago track.

8345D9B8-6328-4294-AF3E-DF2EB18B90CD.gif

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1 hour ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

Interesting development on the UK/6Z GFS. Looks like the flow stays entirely split now and this system wanders off way north as a FROPA leaving the southern energy behind for late week/early next week. The UK takes it south and looks like a Tennessee valley hit whereas the GFS is slower and has an OV hit

Hope you get this one. If it came towards Chicago would be another slopfest storm like the current one and the past two

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5 hours ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

Interesting development on the UK/6Z GFS. Looks like the flow stays entirely split now and this system wanders off way north as a FROPA leaving the southern energy behind for late week/early next week. The UK takes it south and looks like a Tennessee valley hit whereas the GFS is slower and has an OV hit

getting interesting....

1.gif

CMC sticking with the 1 phased system solution still

1.png

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its a start, lacking cold air in the split flow.....but a phase would cause it to be a cutter, so a guess some sort of partial phase would be the middle ground?:352nmsp:

1.png

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12z UK also splits it, but thermals looks suspect, if cold enough any snow would look to stay in the Tennessee valley predominantly 

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Lol....this system & the models. Crazy stuff

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4 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

the 00z ECM stayed phased so i'll be curious to the 12z

 

It's not very often that the UKMET & Euro oppose each other on a general idea of a system like 0z. If 12z Euro stays phased then I'd say it may just be showing its kingliness.

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48 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

It's not very often that the UKMET & Euro oppose each other on a general idea of a system like 0z. If 12z Euro stays phased then I'd say it may just be showing its kingliness.

definitely converted lol

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the aforementioned second wave gearing up at hour 108  

UK ish for sure, waiting on Ptypes to see if any of the thread gets in on the action, looks as if the lower OV might

Edited by ohiobuckeye45
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6 hours ago, Hiramite said:

WPC liking Chicago track.

8345D9B8-6328-4294-AF3E-DF2EB18B90CD.gif

Quite the change from this AM (in quote above).

0088F12B-4DAC-46D5-8016-9E74CEF3C53E.gif

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7 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Quite the change from this AM (in quote above).

0088F12B-4DAC-46D5-8016-9E74CEF3C53E.gif

Which is why I put no stock in these maps. They're usually responses to the latest GFS runs and seem to be a day late and a dollar short. 

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