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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

RickRD

March 15, 2019 | Thunderstorm Potential | Luck of the Irish Storm

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I Know this is long range but I have been watching the indices the past few days and since the pattern is changing I wanted to keep on this time period.

I am seeing that the Euro EPS and NCEP GEFS Teleconnections are flipping in this time frame to a +PNA, -AO and -NAO.

There's also the MJO which is now forecasted to back track into Phases 2 and then 1, albeit into the null phase, it is still backtracking.

The 12Z GFS today on 2019-3-5 Shows the potential. This is 10 days out and this thread may die or date change but wanted to put it out there.

 

 

gefs_ao_06.png

gefs_nao_06.png

gefs_pna_06.png

eps_ao_00.png

eps_nao_00.png

eps_pna_bias.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_41.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_42.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_43.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_44.png

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Energy running around on the GFS FV3 just need that low placement more offshore to deliver the goods for many 

1338136C-955D-4EBF-9B62-B5B6A8BC4211.png

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 Euro EPS Tele Graphs originally posted above were from 0Z overnight.

Here are the 12 Z shots.

eps_ao_12.png

eps_nao_12.png

eps_pna_bias 12z.png

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Great I'm supposed to fly out of Logan Sunday afternoon to New Orleans

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  For  Central mid Atlantic to cash in on snow that storm needs to take a more southern track

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3 hours ago, RickRD said:

 Euro EPS Tele Graphs originally posted above were from 0Z overnight.

Here are the 12 Z shots.

eps_ao_12.png

eps_nao_12.png

eps_pna_bias 12z.png

+PNA. Yuck

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1 hour ago, Winter_warlock said:

  For  Central mid Atlantic to cash in on snow that storm needs to take a more southern track

Correct. Need to cash in on the energy and get that to dive south more. I’m liking the setup this far out though. 

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1 hour ago, Uscg ast said:

+PNA. Yuck

What? +PNA isn’t great, but I would think you’d want one for acridge in the west, granted, bigger ridge could be bigger trough out east. 

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1 hour ago, RickRD said:

What? +PNA isn’t great, but I would think you’d want one for acridge in the west, granted, bigger ridge could be bigger trough out east. 

I misread that. I thought it was only slight positive.. So I meant +PNA was meh. I was wrong lol. +1sd is nice, especially in transition 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

I misread that. I thought it was only slight positive.. So I meant +PNA was meh. I was wrong lol. +1sd is nice, especially in transition 

No worries brother. Was going to take as a learning moment because I know there is a point when these favorable tele’s can run out of their effects. Read that somewhere but can’t remember where. Killed too many brain cells. 🤔

Edited by RickRD
Affect vs effect. I forget. Noun vs verb. You get the point.

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1 hour ago, RickRD said:

Correct. Need to cash in on the energy and get that to dive south more. I’m liking the setup this far out though. 

Agreed! Lots of time for us to get the trends we need 😊

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1 hour ago, RickRD said:

No worries brother. Was going to take as a learning moment because I know there is a point when these favorable tele’s can run out of their effects. Read that somewhere but can’t remember where. Killed too many brain cells. 🤔

As we head towards spring, the teleconnections become less defining as wavelengths lengthen. 

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Folks, hello.

We know that is completely off-topic, don´t we?

What a storm on March 22nd has to do with a thread for a possible storm on Mach 15-17?

Please discuss the time frame for which the thread was started, otherwise, I will need to remove the off-topic posts because they will most likely make posters continue to comment on them.

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Off-topic posts have been moved to the storm specific thread.

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12Z GFS

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh222-240.gif

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LMAOOOO a 977mb storm in Kansas?? Wow!! Not a snowstorm for us but still a meteorological Marvel!! If u truly appreciate meteorology 

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png

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Cmc says Minnesota gonna get a nice storm.... Very deep!!  Impressive!!!!!

 

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

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Posted (edited)

Its the 18th, but I'm sticking it in here

nQhDUlR.png

WkyILHM.png

Edited by StretchCT
added snow map

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Well, So much for this potential. Still a week away, but not looking good.

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Welp. I am hoping for some good thunderstorms from this system since it looks like that it will warm up here.

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Another storm that should usher in spring-like temperatures for MBY with 60ºF or warmer expected Wednesday, Thursday, and maybe Friday too. 

It should some great hiking weather this week. I've already noticed some flowers popping up and this warm stretch should encourage more. :smellflowers:

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4 hours ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Another storm that should usher in spring-like temperatures for MBY with 60ºF or warmer expected Wednesday, Thursday, and maybe Friday too. 

It should some great hiking weather this week. I've already noticed some flowers popping up and this warm stretch should encourage more. :smellflowers:

The 7 inches we had here two days ago is all but gone. Temp 53F. Crocuses, Tulips, and Daffodils are pushing up in my flower beds. :classic_cool:

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I'm ready to start using my new putter outside instead of in the basement...:classic_biggrin:

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Today was supposed to be categorically sunny--the brightest one of the week, but it is dreary out, with only filtered sunshine. The clouds from this upcoming system must have reached us a day early--or the clouds from the previous system decided to stick around one extra day. What it is, is typical Greater Binghamton weather. When I expect a bright, sunny day, something usually goes wrong. 

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Since there is no thread for March 13, I will throw this into this thread:  We've received about an inch of snow tonight and it continues to snow moderately.  It started heavy after 7 and started immediately sticking to the roads.  I was out and had no clue we were supposed to receive much snow.  It is expected to taper off by 10 pm.  

Winter keeps trying to hold on in northern New England.

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