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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

MaineJay

April 1-2, 2016 | April Fools Day Foolishness

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April fools!  :classic_laugh:

Well,I don't have much to use for an opener. The MJO is forecast to weaken and possibly go into the COD, so can't use that.  And, it's beyond the range of global models.  But, the BSR shows a potentially interesting pattern, so in order to draw the ire of those who don't like threads opened beyond day 5, and to instill some false hope in those wishing for one more storm, I thought I'd open this thread.

2110907239_19_0401-00-500(4).gif.d93ed0678dd8f9554f000a2dd48a4034.gif

1661492681_19_0401-00(3).gif.900e3ee47e25aa7249881c8d092690ff.gif The CFS MSLP with spread.

19040112_1500.gif.e514edce19ce2e994ec91cfdd694c3ec.gif

 There's no question that reeling something in come April is like trying to catch a 100lb surgeon on 20 lb test, but Les Claypool says it can be done.

 

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27 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

April fools!  :classic_laugh:

Well,I don't have much to use for an opener. The MJO is forecast to weaken and possibly go into the COD, so can't use that.  And, it's beyond the range of global models.  But, the BSR shows a potentially interesting pattern, so in order to draw the ire of those who don't like threads opened beyond day 5, and to instill some false hope in those wishing for one more storm, I thought I'd open this thread.

2110907239_19_0401-00-500(4).gif.d93ed0678dd8f9554f000a2dd48a4034.gif

1661492681_19_0401-00(3).gif.900e3ee47e25aa7249881c8d092690ff.gif The CFS MSLP with spread.

19040112_1500.gif.e514edce19ce2e994ec91cfdd694c3ec.gif

 There's no question that reeling something in come April is like trying to catch a 100lb surgeon on 20 lb test, but Les Claypool says it can be done.

 

@MaineJay, congratulations!

Only a few very tough and fearless individuals muster the will to open a thread like this one. It seems you are one of them!

At least the BSR shows something. That´s a start!

An April Fools Day storm is always fun. But is it really a storm or the atmosphere playing a prank on us?!

Hopefully, there can be a windy storm for the coast, with whatever kind of precipitation it may bring.

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4 hours ago, MaineJay said:

April fools!  :classic_laugh:

Well,I don't have much to use for an opener. The MJO is forecast to weaken and possibly go into the COD, so can't use that.  And, it's beyond the range of global models.  But, the BSR shows a potentially interesting pattern, so in order to draw the ire of those who don't like threads opened beyond day 5, and to instill some false hope in those wishing for one more storm, I thought I'd open this thread.

2110907239_19_0401-00-500(4).gif.d93ed0678dd8f9554f000a2dd48a4034.gif

1661492681_19_0401-00(3).gif.900e3ee47e25aa7249881c8d092690ff.gif The CFS MSLP with spread.

19040112_1500.gif.e514edce19ce2e994ec91cfdd694c3ec.gif

 There's no question that reeling something in come April is like trying to catch a 100lb surgeon on 20 lb test, but Les Claypool says it can be done.

 

With the BSR showing the double barrel structure we've observed all season, I think we all know what's coming haha. Nice write up though and I approve of the music choice

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April 1, 1997 was a great storm. April 6. 1982 was incredible. It can happen.

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6 hours ago, Creamy Goodness said:

April 1, 1997 was a great storm. April 6. 1982 was incredible. It can happen.

That avatar though... 

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On 3/15/2019 at 6:26 AM, MaineJay said:

April fools!  :classic_laugh:

Well,I don't have much to use for an opener. The MJO is forecast to weaken and possibly go into the COD, so can't use that.  And, it's beyond the range of global models.  But, the BSR shows a potentially interesting pattern, so in order to draw the ire of those who don't like threads opened beyond day 5, and to instill some false hope in those wishing for one more storm, I thought I'd open this thread.

2110907239_19_0401-00-500(4).gif.d93ed0678dd8f9554f000a2dd48a4034.gif

1661492681_19_0401-00(3).gif.900e3ee47e25aa7249881c8d092690ff.gif The CFS MSLP with spread.

19040112_1500.gif.e514edce19ce2e994ec91cfdd694c3ec.gif

 There's no question that reeling something in come April is like trying to catch a 100lb surgeon on 20 lb test, but Les Claypool says it can be done.

 

ohhhhh you are a cruel one Maine Jay, Just as I was trying get into SPRING and forget this winter and all those Long Range Model looks that we have seen since November which punished all snow lovers like myself and now you post this ? Pox on you and your ancestors lol

Edited by Brasiluvsnow
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I was living in Alabama in 1987 when we had a freak April snowstorm.  There was no mention of snow in the forecast.  We woke up to find it snowed overnight in APRIL.  Crazy!  

We must keep on our toes about possible snow for awhile yet.

Below is a blow post about it..

Quote

Story of an Illegal Snowstorm

J.B. Elliott | March 20, 2008 @ 11:35 am | 8 Replies

We call it illegal because it was not forecast.

All rain, we thought.

We were wrong, we “wuz robbed!”

It had never snowed in Birmingham in April. We assumed the very late snow of March 25, 1924, when Birmingham got 7 inches, would always hold the record of the latest snow on record.

Again, we were wrong.

The night of April 2 and the morning of April 3, 1987 was to be an all rain event. But, lurking in the middle of the night, a low-pressure area grew stronger. It was a large slow-moving low. This gave it time to pull in colder than expected air on its north and NE quadrant. In Birmingham, the temperature at 850 millibars, about 5,000 feet, dropped to 32 or lower, enough to change the rain to snow.

It was a situation where a difference of plus or minus 1 or 2 degrees at the crucial condensation level could mean all rain or all snow.

And, did it snow!

In the early morning hours of April 3, there was thunder and lightning with the snow. Huge, wet flakes. Not the size of frisbees but at least quarter-size or even half-dollar size.

If I remember correctly, it began changing to snow with the official temperature around 41.

The final score:

10 inches accumulation at Valley Head in Dekalb County
9 inches Fort Payne
8 inches Oneonta
7 inches Pinson
6 inches Birmingham and Ashland
4 inches Thorsby, Talladega, Heflin
3 inches Centreville, Tuscaloosa, Greensboro, Livingston, Thomasville
2 inches Bridgeport, Cullman, Haleyville, Camden
1 inch Montgomery, Vernon, Lafayette

While the official snow depth was 6 inches at Birmingham, it was heavier in the higher elevations on the city’s NE side.

Trees were already green.
Azalea bushes and dogwood trees were in full blossom.

It was a strange sight with all the greenery and blossoms bending under the heavy weight of the snow. I took a number of color slides next morning, including azalea and pink dogwood blossoms peeking out from under the snow.

It was a heavy wet snow and the lush foliage caught the snow breaking numerous tree limbs. The cleanup was equal to that of a severe thunderstorm.

A trace of snow was recorded as far south as Atmore and Mobile. The snow tapered off to the NW with only a trace on the ground at places like Moulton and Huntsville.

I worked the 4:00 p.m. to midnight shift at the National Weather Service on West Oxmoor Road that evening, April 2. In those days, we had a voice mail telephone system that we recorded the local forecast on that could take 50 local calls and 8 long distance calls simultaneously. That was my voice on the recording that mentioned only rain. After the rain changed to snow after midnight and toward the pre-dawn hours, the recording was never changed, so people were hearing a rain forecast as the snow was getting deeper and deeper.

I was terribly embarrassed.

When I thought about that again this morning, I am still embarrassed to this day.

We named it the “dogwood snowstorm” for obvious reasons. The snow melted quickly later on April 3, but it was a sight to remember forever.

That large slow-moving low-pressure area moved on to the NE from April 3 through April 5 and produced some unbelievable snow totals. In the Great Smoky Mountain Park, 60 inches accumulated on Newfound Gap. That is the largest single storm snowfall in North Carolina history–at least up until that time. As much as 36 inches was recorded in SE Kentucky. In Charleston, West Virginia, 25 inches easily broke the previous record for the entire month of April which was only 6 inches. Akron, Ohio got 21 inches–an all-time record. I-40 was closed by the snow for the first time since it had opened to traffic 20 years earlier.

Do you remember?

 

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FV3 is a non stop train of storms.  I'm not 100%, but I believe those are Rossby waves traversing the Pacific.

It has a messy esteem trof in this time frame. Vet unsettled weather.

fv3p_z500a_nhem_56.thumb.png.3cff81205577604ad9a36d92fe1ed41e.png

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