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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

MaineJay

Match 31-April 1, 2016 | April Fools Day Foolishness

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April fools!  :classic_laugh:

Well,I don't have much to use for an opener. The MJO is forecast to weaken and possibly go into the COD, so can't use that.  And, it's beyond the range of global models.  But, the BSR shows a potentially interesting pattern, so in order to draw the ire of those who don't like threads opened beyond day 5, and to instill some false hope in those wishing for one more storm, I thought I'd open this thread.

2110907239_19_0401-00-500(4).gif.d93ed0678dd8f9554f000a2dd48a4034.gif

1661492681_19_0401-00(3).gif.900e3ee47e25aa7249881c8d092690ff.gif The CFS MSLP with spread.

19040112_1500.gif.e514edce19ce2e994ec91cfdd694c3ec.gif

 There's no question that reeling something in come April is like trying to catch a 100lb surgeon on 20 lb test, but Les Claypool says it can be done.

 

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27 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

April fools!  :classic_laugh:

Well,I don't have much to use for an opener. The MJO is forecast to weaken and possibly go into the COD, so can't use that.  And, it's beyond the range of global models.  But, the BSR shows a potentially interesting pattern, so in order to draw the ire of those who don't like threads opened beyond day 5, and to instill some false hope in those wishing for one more storm, I thought I'd open this thread.

2110907239_19_0401-00-500(4).gif.d93ed0678dd8f9554f000a2dd48a4034.gif

1661492681_19_0401-00(3).gif.900e3ee47e25aa7249881c8d092690ff.gif The CFS MSLP with spread.

19040112_1500.gif.e514edce19ce2e994ec91cfdd694c3ec.gif

 There's no question that reeling something in come April is like trying to catch a 100lb surgeon on 20 lb test, but Les Claypool says it can be done.

 

@MaineJay, congratulations!

Only a few very tough and fearless individuals muster the will to open a thread like this one. It seems you are one of them!

At least the BSR shows something. That´s a start!

An April Fools Day storm is always fun. But is it really a storm or the atmosphere playing a prank on us?!

Hopefully, there can be a windy storm for the coast, with whatever kind of precipitation it may bring.

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I'll be at Jay Peak during this time frame, maybe some freshies amongst the corn?

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4 hours ago, MaineJay said:

April fools!  :classic_laugh:

Well,I don't have much to use for an opener. The MJO is forecast to weaken and possibly go into the COD, so can't use that.  And, it's beyond the range of global models.  But, the BSR shows a potentially interesting pattern, so in order to draw the ire of those who don't like threads opened beyond day 5, and to instill some false hope in those wishing for one more storm, I thought I'd open this thread.

2110907239_19_0401-00-500(4).gif.d93ed0678dd8f9554f000a2dd48a4034.gif

1661492681_19_0401-00(3).gif.900e3ee47e25aa7249881c8d092690ff.gif The CFS MSLP with spread.

19040112_1500.gif.e514edce19ce2e994ec91cfdd694c3ec.gif

 There's no question that reeling something in come April is like trying to catch a 100lb surgeon on 20 lb test, but Les Claypool says it can be done.

 

With the BSR showing the double barrel structure we've observed all season, I think we all know what's coming haha. Nice write up though and I approve of the music choice

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April 1, 1997 was a great storm. April 6. 1982 was incredible. It can happen.

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6 hours ago, Creamy Goodness said:

April 1, 1997 was a great storm. April 6. 1982 was incredible. It can happen.

That avatar though... 

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Posted (edited)
On 3/15/2019 at 6:26 AM, MaineJay said:

April fools!  :classic_laugh:

Well,I don't have much to use for an opener. The MJO is forecast to weaken and possibly go into the COD, so can't use that.  And, it's beyond the range of global models.  But, the BSR shows a potentially interesting pattern, so in order to draw the ire of those who don't like threads opened beyond day 5, and to instill some false hope in those wishing for one more storm, I thought I'd open this thread.

2110907239_19_0401-00-500(4).gif.d93ed0678dd8f9554f000a2dd48a4034.gif

1661492681_19_0401-00(3).gif.900e3ee47e25aa7249881c8d092690ff.gif The CFS MSLP with spread.

19040112_1500.gif.e514edce19ce2e994ec91cfdd694c3ec.gif

 There's no question that reeling something in come April is like trying to catch a 100lb surgeon on 20 lb test, but Les Claypool says it can be done.

 

ohhhhh you are a cruel one Maine Jay, Just as I was trying get into SPRING and forget this winter and all those Long Range Model looks that we have seen since November which punished all snow lovers like myself and now you post this ? Pox on you and your ancestors lol

Edited by Brasiluvsnow
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16/6z MREFs

823342104_f384(2).thumb.gif.b1cf794b2e7455c78f0b80b6584e9618.gif

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I was living in Alabama in 1987 when we had a freak April snowstorm.  There was no mention of snow in the forecast.  We woke up to find it snowed overnight in APRIL.  Crazy!  

We must keep on our toes about possible snow for awhile yet.

Below is a blow post about it..

Quote

Story of an Illegal Snowstorm

J.B. Elliott | March 20, 2008 @ 11:35 am | 8 Replies

We call it illegal because it was not forecast.

All rain, we thought.

We were wrong, we “wuz robbed!”

It had never snowed in Birmingham in April. We assumed the very late snow of March 25, 1924, when Birmingham got 7 inches, would always hold the record of the latest snow on record.

Again, we were wrong.

The night of April 2 and the morning of April 3, 1987 was to be an all rain event. But, lurking in the middle of the night, a low-pressure area grew stronger. It was a large slow-moving low. This gave it time to pull in colder than expected air on its north and NE quadrant. In Birmingham, the temperature at 850 millibars, about 5,000 feet, dropped to 32 or lower, enough to change the rain to snow.

It was a situation where a difference of plus or minus 1 or 2 degrees at the crucial condensation level could mean all rain or all snow.

And, did it snow!

In the early morning hours of April 3, there was thunder and lightning with the snow. Huge, wet flakes. Not the size of frisbees but at least quarter-size or even half-dollar size.

If I remember correctly, it began changing to snow with the official temperature around 41.

The final score:

10 inches accumulation at Valley Head in Dekalb County
9 inches Fort Payne
8 inches Oneonta
7 inches Pinson
6 inches Birmingham and Ashland
4 inches Thorsby, Talladega, Heflin
3 inches Centreville, Tuscaloosa, Greensboro, Livingston, Thomasville
2 inches Bridgeport, Cullman, Haleyville, Camden
1 inch Montgomery, Vernon, Lafayette

While the official snow depth was 6 inches at Birmingham, it was heavier in the higher elevations on the city’s NE side.

Trees were already green.
Azalea bushes and dogwood trees were in full blossom.

It was a strange sight with all the greenery and blossoms bending under the heavy weight of the snow. I took a number of color slides next morning, including azalea and pink dogwood blossoms peeking out from under the snow.

It was a heavy wet snow and the lush foliage caught the snow breaking numerous tree limbs. The cleanup was equal to that of a severe thunderstorm.

A trace of snow was recorded as far south as Atmore and Mobile. The snow tapered off to the NW with only a trace on the ground at places like Moulton and Huntsville.

I worked the 4:00 p.m. to midnight shift at the National Weather Service on West Oxmoor Road that evening, April 2. In those days, we had a voice mail telephone system that we recorded the local forecast on that could take 50 local calls and 8 long distance calls simultaneously. That was my voice on the recording that mentioned only rain. After the rain changed to snow after midnight and toward the pre-dawn hours, the recording was never changed, so people were hearing a rain forecast as the snow was getting deeper and deeper.

I was terribly embarrassed.

When I thought about that again this morning, I am still embarrassed to this day.

We named it the “dogwood snowstorm” for obvious reasons. The snow melted quickly later on April 3, but it was a sight to remember forever.

That large slow-moving low-pressure area moved on to the NE from April 3 through April 5 and produced some unbelievable snow totals. In the Great Smoky Mountain Park, 60 inches accumulated on Newfound Gap. That is the largest single storm snowfall in North Carolina history–at least up until that time. As much as 36 inches was recorded in SE Kentucky. In Charleston, West Virginia, 25 inches easily broke the previous record for the entire month of April which was only 6 inches. Akron, Ohio got 21 inches–an all-time record. I-40 was closed by the snow for the first time since it had opened to traffic 20 years earlier.

Do you remember?

 

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FV3 is a non stop train of storms.  I'm not 100%, but I believe those are Rossby waves traversing the Pacific.

It has a messy esteem trof in this time frame. Vet unsettled weather.

fv3p_z500a_nhem_56.thumb.png.3cff81205577604ad9a36d92fe1ed41e.png

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GEFS, just to keep things updated.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_51.png.b7062a67795c3b5ca54b8b13594eeb04.png

We are not in rescue of the operational ECMWF, but I had to post the fantasy 240 image with the very high wave number.  Read up a bit on the Rossby Wave packet stuff from cstar, it says that higher wave numbers (5+) tend to move the pattern eastward, while low numbers tend to retrograde westward.

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.c57389bdde9ddf9f844f0281c035f438.png

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Keeping my lonely thread updated. 

EPS with spread.

19040100_2200.gif.65c8d5b19a061e555e731163614e699d.gif

FV3

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png.740a7fcc0c91a0f301f2cffad9f3ef08.png

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3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Keeping my lonely thread updated. 

EPS with spread.

19040100_2200.gif.65c8d5b19a061e555e731163614e699d.gif

FV3

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png.740a7fcc0c91a0f301f2cffad9f3ef08.png

00z GFS has something worth watching:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh276-348.gif

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3 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Fv3 lol...

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png

This model owes me a lot, I mean A LOT of snow. Last month they pushed back the unveiling as it filed for Chapter 11 for how much snow it owes debtors. Unfortunately, it does not look like restructuring is working and Chapter 7 may soon follow 

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2 hours ago, Uscg ast said:

This model owes me a lot, I mean A LOT of snow. Last month they pushed back the unveiling as it filed for Chapter 11 for how much snow it owes debtors. Unfortunately, it does not look like restructuring is working and Chapter 7 may soon follow 

The snow debt from the fv3 this winter alone is like the national debt. It won't be paid back in 100 lifetimes.

I posted a while back that I hope some team of computer programmers somewhere has the proper level of embarrassment and shame over this model.  I mean that sincerely. If it's going to inflate snow totals in the output to such a mockery then just pull it offline and fix it  or torch it and start over. Whatever, but leaving it out there all winter and acting like it's going to replace the already wildly inconsistent gfs as our national model is just wrong. Come on scientist people, you can do better. 1.jpg.fa2e57d6bdbd3122b4a590e66c9e9687.jpg

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50 minutes ago, 1816 said:

The snow debt from the fv3 this winter alone is like the national debt. It won't be paid back in 100 lifetimes.

I posted a while back that I hope some team of computer programmers somewhere has the proper level of embarrassment and shame over this model.  I mean that sincerely. If it's going to inflate snow totals in the output to such a mockery then just pull it offline and fix it  or torch it and start over. Whatever, but leaving it out there all winter and acting like it's going to replace the already wildly inconsistent gfs as our national model is just wrong. Come on scientist people, you can do better. 1.jpg.fa2e57d6bdbd3122b4a590e66c9e9687.jpg

Thats ok,  its got a tropical storm spawning now too.   See the SE US tropical page....

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7 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Thats ok,  its got a tropical storm spawning now too.   See the SE US tropical page....

Saw that.  Just don't know what else to say. Nice job fv3. 

#Hopetheyputthisthingoutofitsmisery

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37 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Saw that.  Just don't know what else to say. Nice job fv3. 

#Hopetheyputthisthingoutofitsmisery

You guys are tough. 

It got a couple sunny days right this winter. Geez. 

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22 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Thats ok,  its got a tropical storm spawning now too.   See the SE US tropical page....

How much snow is this tropical storm going to dump on myrtle beach? Seems fitting with this whacky model 

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Just no.

 

The FV3 needs to be pulled out of service and its coding gone over by a dedicated team of programmers because there obviously is something amiss so bad in it that its best day tends to be the worst day of the gfs... and the gfs's notorious for IT'S issues.

 

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Okay, I feel the need to respond because this is taking on a life of its own.  There's no question that the FV3 suffers from boundary layer issues resulting in ridiculously erroneous snowfall maps, and there the exact reason its implementation has been delayed.  And I'll be the first to say that I took it was s mistake to go with FV3 over MPAS, but it's not the dumpster fire it's made out to be.

  It has performed better than it predecessor, and pretty much schooled the other models with the March 21-23 system.  

No model is great, they are all flawed in one way or another.

 I see the fact that the snowfall maps are busted a blessing, I detest snowmaps, and even p-type maps to a degree, so the less emphasis put on them, the better.  Looking at just those two parameters is a myopic way of learning about weather, and I'm not sure anything useful can be learned just using them.

  

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EPS with spread

377961613_19040100_2400(1).gif.54be1a96569f4b1ab75af91295034f0c.gif

19040100_2400.gif.1301f09da91d59251cb5ce2de00dd71d.gif

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55 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Okay, I feel the need to respond because this is taking on a life of its own.  There's no question that the FV3 suffers from boundary layer issues resulting in ridiculously erroneous snowfall maps, and there the exact reason its implementation has been delayed.  And I'll be the first to say that I took it was s mistake to go with FV3 over MPAS, but it's not the dumpster fire it's made out to be.

  It has performed better than it predecessor, and pretty much schooled the other models with the March 21-23 system.  

No model is great, they are all flawed in one way or another.

 I see the fact that the snowfall maps are busted a blessing, I detest snowmaps, and even p-type maps to a degree, so the less emphasis put on them, the better.  Looking at just those two parameters is a myopic way of learning about weather, and I'm not sure anything useful can be learned just using them.

  

Why do you always have to swoop in with your reasonable takes and weather wisdom. 

Don't you know how fun it is to use this here fv3 as a punching bag? It makes it so easy sometimes. :classic_laugh:

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4 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Okay, I feel the need to respond because this is taking on a life of its own.  There's no question that the FV3 suffers from boundary layer issues resulting in ridiculously erroneous snowfall maps, and there the exact reason its implementation has been delayed.  And I'll be the first to say that I took it was s mistake to go with FV3 over MPAS, but it's not the dumpster fire it's made out to be.

  It has performed better than it predecessor, and pretty much schooled the other models with the March 21-23 system.  

No model is great, they are all flawed in one way or another.

 I see the fact that the snowfall maps are busted a blessing, I detest snowmaps, and even p-type maps to a degree, so the less emphasis put on them, the better.  Looking at just those two parameters is a myopic way of learning about weather, and I'm not sure anything useful can be learned just using them.

  

Glad someone with a strong positive reputation said what I have been thinking.

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