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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Phased Vort

April 2-3, 2019 | Spring Nor´easter | Coastal Mischief

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Quick thread opener here to allow for a place for the discussion of the threat of a possible coastal storm affecting the Mid-Atlantic as a whole and possibly southern New England, and also to avoid the off-topic contamination of @MaineJay´s April Fools storm thread.

And yeah, also because no one volunteered to start this one.

Below, please see some recent model images for this possible coastal mischief.

March 28th 12Z GFS

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh114-162.thumb.gif.2c33ca1a30031330e82a744346388ff0.gif

March 28th 12Z FV3:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh114-162.thumb.gif.537b44e3bc8decbb55042281cd4dbb30.gif

March 28th 12Z ECMWF:

439591343_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesEastCoastUSAPrecipTypeMSLP.gif.cb7ec11311fefe7809694da8c8bc471d.gif

 

Let´s see if there will be any frozen precipitation surprises or if it will be a complete big soaker for many folks.

 

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Right interesting because precip starts as rain and turns to snow as LP winds up the coast

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Posted (edited)

The 3/28/19 18Z GFS had this storm as far north as North Carolina, then OTS . The 3/29/19 00Z run brings it up the coast again. Mostly a rain event but some areas do pick up some snow as per this run.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh108-150.gif.0b0a9e7463a3c429c204436ab427b350.gif

 

image.png.15facbaaa47e9e5b19ce7bff2e8b54ea.png

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?
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Posted (edited)

00Z FV3 keeps it off the coast as it heads north. CMC(not shown) is also off the coast.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh114-144.gif.c23bc5c84e721976c150fec946628bd8.gif

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?

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ECMWF shows a big Nor'easter tracking northward passing close to the benchmark.

480669827_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesEastCoastUSAPrecipTypeMSLP.gif.760540fc37b311e43e7b4cee8c54668c.gif

Could be bigger than the one last week.

And this seems to be a clean Miller A.

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1 hour ago, Phased Vort said:

ECMWF shows a big Nor'easter tracking northward passing close to the benchmark.

480669827_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesEastCoastUSAPrecipTypeMSLP.gif.760540fc37b311e43e7b4cee8c54668c.gif

Could be bigger than the one last week.

And this seems to be a clean Miller A.

Yup, more rain, just what we need...UGH. When will this horrible 6 to 8 month pattern stop?

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3 hours ago, suzook said:

Yup, more rain, just what we need...UGH. When will this horrible 6 to 8 month pattern stop?

Interesting...yeah, we're getting pretty dry up here...was starting to get towards hazardous fire conditions in many fields...so glad for this weekend's rain. We'll see what this system brings, but would love for a mountain snow event...

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, telejunkie said:

Interesting...yeah, we're getting pretty dry up here...was starting to get towards hazardous fire conditions in many fields...so glad for this weekend's rain. We'll see what this system brings, but would love for a mountain snow event...

Most places south of NY are soaked, but farther north soil moisture is pretty close to average. 

Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

Interestingly, many of the wettest locations are expected to receive smaller precipitation totals over the next 10 days, which should be appreciated by many. Perhaps this is evidence of the law of averages. 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_40.png

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie

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I don't have access to the in between frames, but 12Z euro keeps this time frame interesting to follow.

  image.png.adeb386bb2cde03dcdad471bbd8939c6.png

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32 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

I don't have access to the in between frames, but 12Z euro keeps this time frame interesting to follow.

  image.png.adeb386bb2cde03dcdad471bbd8939c6.png

can anyone post the in between frames?

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53 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

I don't have access to the in between frames, but 12Z euro keeps this time frame interesting to follow.

  image.png.adeb386bb2cde03dcdad471bbd8939c6.png

Looks warm/ SE

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1713076558_3-2912zeurorunfor4-4.gif.03360ae4a991947b5b64e7441989b35f.gif

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9 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

ECMWF shows a big Nor'easter tracking northward passing close to the benchmark.

480669827_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesEastCoastUSAPrecipTypeMSLP.gif.760540fc37b311e43e7b4cee8c54668c.gif

Could be bigger than the one last week.

And this seems to be a clean Miller A.

 

Imgur-fcfaf5.png

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1 hour ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Most places south of NY are soaked, but farther north soil moisture is pretty close to average. 

Interestingly, many of the wettest locations are expected to receive smaller precipitation totals over the next 10 days, which should be appreciated by many. Perhaps this is evidence of the law of averages. 

 

Yeah...looks like the Pac NW & northern Rockies may finally get some systems to move through. Seems like they've been missing most of these big pacific systems. As for here, yeah, average sounds about right. With snowmelt and mud season pretty much come & gone here...fields tend to dry out in a hurry until green up occurs. Guessing we're still a little ways from green up, so this weekend should help get us through a good chunk of that danger zone.

Seems as though pretty good consensus this one stays far enough off shore for impacts for most in the region (except maybe Cape Cod and maybe Delmarva)...but as we know, big storms often come NW...

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5 hours ago, StretchCT said:

1713076558_3-2912zeurorunfor4-4.gif.03360ae4a991947b5b64e7441989b35f.gif

Hmm if it was mid January we'd all be excited ;)

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Looking like a Nice noreaster coming up the coast on models.  Will be rain here but  meteorologically speaking it looks very nice.  😁

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It seems only the NAM shows a solution with snowfall for areas of eastern southern Bew England.

CMC and NAM show snowfall fo Maine.

NAM and ICON shows snowfall for some of the mountainous terrain down   south.

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NAM, UKMET and NAVGEM are the closest in. 

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Posted (edited)

Just want to keep the discussion going on this. WOW!!! so close with this one on the two GFS's models. Can you imagine the anger if this was in the middle of winter with cold air in place.

04/01/19-00Z GFS @ hour 54:

image.png.293222d3e0e4e2fa143ee71c54f1b3eb.png

00Z FV3-GFS @ hour 54:

image.png.50e5ebd1ddfc492e7992dc4aa2e187f3.png

However the  00Z 12km Nam actually brings precip to parts of Mid-ATL, NJ, SENY and SNE, its rain with some snow on the northern fringes. Still a few days to go, will continue to watch this one since it is so close. Rain or snow, nice to track a good coastal. :classic_cool:

namconus_ref_frzn_us_fh33-69.gif.c2b28f78a1dd149bdf27e938384a050c.gif

 

 

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?
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4 hours ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

Can you imagine the anger if this was in the middle of winter with cold air in place.

Oh gosh, a coastal scrapper, yes it would be a white out in here with all the towels being thrown. 

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Man, this is awful close.  I haven't been able to devote any time, and it's likely I'll be waving to it as it passes just off the coast, but I'll keep an eye on the12z runs for sure.

EPS has some spread to the NW.

19040300_0100.gif.9a7a5b49609fa0a341cce488cbf57b98.gif

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Looks like the only threat for this one is coastal flooding....

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image.png.0a294c6f7da866261db3ca4a6717b51d.png

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It seems the folks in extreme northeastern Georgia, western South Carolina and western North Carolina, may see snowfall in April with this storm.

12Z NAM and the most recent FV3 and ECMWF run all say snow will fall in those areas.

The 12Z NAM seems to be a bit more west and brings rain for Delmarva, eastern NJ, Long Island, and eastern southern New England.

Eastern southern New England, could be dealing with some decent winds.

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